The Great Filter
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18-07-2016, 04:32 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 01:45 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Secularism can have an impact on fertility rates.

This is true. Anything can have an impact on fertility rates.

But that is not what you are arguing. You are not just arguing that secularism can alter fertility rates. You are arguing that secularism does lower fertility rates, to such a degree that population decline is inevitable.

You have no evidence for this.

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18-07-2016, 05:28 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 12:59 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(17-07-2016 06:47 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  No, but people who do math are often damned fine liars.

If the initial population is 2. Those 2 members must replicate 2 replacements to have a stable population. If they replicate 1. When the first 2 die, there will be only one. The population will have decreased.

Yes. It's all the assumptions that you've tacked on to this basic math that aren't even slightly accurate.

Quote:With a little thought you can see it is obviously true that unless you have a fertility rate of 2 or greater, the population will decrease eventually to extinction.

Like that one. A fertility rate of less than 2 is only a problem if sustained over the very long run. Given the chronic over-population of this planet it is a good thing for the next few generations. We need to start worrying about underpopulation in a couple of centuries. More pressing problems here and now.

It isn't even plausible as an extinction mechanism. Long before the population falls below the million person mark, civilization collapses and there's no way to produce birth control pills. You get a millenia or two of dark ages whilst people fuck like bunnies and reinvent civilization. That's all allowing that everything else you're assuming is true, which it isn't.

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Flesh and blood of a dead star, slain in the apocalypse of supernova, resurrected by four billion years of continuous autocatalytic reaction and crowned with the emergent property of sentience in the dream that the universe might one day understand itself.
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18-07-2016, 08:18 PM
RE: The Great Filter
Are we still debating Morningwoods silly pet theory the atheism and condoms will reap the Apocalypse instead of reasonable things that are actually going to happen like overpopulation( which Morningwood is fine with this" let them die" and "decrease the surplus population") or the death of our pollinators or our machines becoming sentient and enslaving us all , Xe-nu's return, Kanye west becoming president someday,the worlds soon to be beer shortage(blood will flow without end) you know plausible causes for the end times

note those quotes are not morningwoods

The first is Captain Kirk from the undiscovered country
The second is from the Christmas carol

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18-07-2016, 08:26 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 12:48 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(17-07-2016 04:42 AM)Chas Wrote:  You can actually say that after I've schooled you repeatedly on evolution and mathematics? You are ridiculous.

Chas, there are people on this forum who I believe are smarter than me and can school me. You're not one of them. In terms of forum member smarts, you're on the short bus.

You continue to make yourself ridiculous. Drinking Beverage

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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18-07-2016, 08:40 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 08:26 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(18-07-2016 12:48 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Chas, there are people on this forum who I believe are smarter than me and can school me. You're not one of them. In terms of forum member smarts, you're on the short bus.

You continue to make yourself ridiculous. Drinking Beverage

It requires very little effort.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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18-07-2016, 08:55 PM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 08:40 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(18-07-2016 08:26 PM)Chas Wrote:  You continue to make yourself ridiculous. Drinking Beverage

It requires very little effort.

a cow passing gas takes more effort then morningwood making an ass of himself

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18-07-2016, 09:45 PM (This post was last modified: 18-07-2016 09:51 PM by OrdoSkeptica.)
RE: The Great Filter
To be clear this idiots honestly thinks if we ban birth control everything will okay .No you know what will happen same as always dose.A black market pop up because when people can't get something legally and there's a demand the other market will be more then happy to fill the gap. Illegal abortion clinics ,Black market pills,Black market condoms,Doctors out of profit or compassion preforming abortions .Will they be safe maybe not but people have this weird aversion to people butting into there reproductive cycle. And dose he honestly think any cop in the western hemisphere is going Condom hunting. Hell you can make the things in your own home it's freaking rubber and latex i use the stuff all the time i could 100 home brew condoms in a hour .Can anyone here envision a bunch of cops showing up to confiscate some rubber latex tubes i think not.

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19-07-2016, 12:21 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 05:28 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  Like that one. A fertility rate of less than 2 is only a problem if sustained over the very long run. Given the chronic over-population of this planet it is a good thing for the next few generations. We need to start worrying about underpopulation in a couple of centuries. More pressing problems here and now.

I have acknowledged the issue in many posts in this thread. It would take a long time for us to extinct. I even pointed out that you can have a fertility rate below 2 and have a growing population due to population momentum. You will see that happen very soon. The global fertility rate is going to drop below 2 but the population will continue to increase for a while.

(18-07-2016 05:28 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  It isn't even plausible as an extinction mechanism. Long before the population falls below the million person mark, civilization collapses and there's no way to produce birth control pills. You get a millenia or two of dark ages whilst people fuck like bunnies and reinvent civilization. That's all allowing that everything else you're assuming is true, which it isn't.

You don't need that many people to have a civilization. A slowly dying civilization isn't going to collapse into a dark age.
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19-07-2016, 12:23 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 09:45 PM)OrdoSkeptica Wrote:  To be clear this idiots honestly thinks if we ban birth control everything will okay .No you know what will happen same as always dose.A black market pop up because when people can't get something legally and there's a demand the other market will be more then happy to fill the gap. Illegal abortion clinics ,Black market pills,Black market condoms,Doctors out of profit or compassion preforming abortions .Will they be safe maybe not but people have this weird aversion to people butting into there reproductive cycle. And dose he honestly think any cop in the western hemisphere is going Condom hunting. Hell you can make the things in your own home it's freaking rubber and latex i use the stuff all the time i could 100 home brew condoms in a hour .Can anyone here envision a bunch of cops showing up to confiscate some rubber latex tubes i think not.

I never said we should ban birth control. I even commented that overpopulation can lead to a short term misery.
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19-07-2016, 12:40 AM
RE: The Great Filter
(18-07-2016 04:32 PM)Unbeliever Wrote:  But that is not what you are arguing. You are not just arguing that secularism can alter fertility rates. You are arguing that secularism does lower fertility rates, to such a degree that population decline is inevitable.

I am comfortable with the position that it is not secularism per se that causes low fertility rates. That if given the choice human beings will choose not to reproduce in quantities sufficient to sustain their population. I said exactly that in the first post of this thread.

But religion does help drive up fertility rates with its prohibition against birth control. If you accept that to be true, then you must accept that as these religious beliefs give way to secularism, fertility rates will drop.

Consider this question. Would you rather live in a society where a lot of religious people abstain from birth control which results in sustainable fertility rates(above 2), or would you rather live in a society where in order to sustain fertility rates above 2, you have to have a government issued permit to use birth control?
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