The Trump Impeachment Thread
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05-04-2017, 08:56 AM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(05-04-2017 08:26 AM)SYZ Wrote:  
(05-04-2017 01:45 AM)Gert Heide Wrote:  Trump cannot be removed from office because people have come to the conclusion that he's probably involved in treasonous activities involving Russian support for his businesses or that he seems to be semi-literate or exhibiting the signs of the early stages of Alzheimers...


Under Australian law, "probable cause" or "reasonable belief" are both justifications for litigation in a court of law that requires a defense by the appellee (in this case Trump). Does this not apply in the US?

I'm no great expert on different legal systems. Litigation is a term, though, that refers to civil procedures for redress. There is a least one suit underway against Trump that centres on an allegation of very grave depravity involving a minor [either the American public does not care to pay much attention to this or the country's media are obsessed with the tweets and the scandal over Russia]. The burden of proof in civil cases is, as you say, usually quite lighter than in criminal matters in the US and other English-speaking countries. Reading about this and any number of other matters involving Trump and females who've had the bad luck to encounter him is something I prefer not to subject myself to. Trump, I think, has intimated that he thinks he has 'presidential immunity' in regard to certain aspects of the law. In this and in other beliefs, he shows again and again both that he's a colossal imbecile AND that his family members and advisers are too frightened or immoral to advise him of the ultimate consequences of any crimes he's committed.
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13-05-2017, 05:22 AM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
The recent Comey debacle in Washington and Trump's blatant obstruction of justice has generated even more impeachment talk.

Dems escalate talk of Trump impeachment

From the article:
Quote:... shortly after Trump fired Comey, Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal -- a former state attorney general -- told CNN's Anderson Cooper that the move "may well produce impeachment proceedings, although we're very far from that possibility."

And bookmakers now see a Trump impeachment at 60%.

Donald Trump 'has 60% chance' of being impeached after James Comey firing

From the article:
Quote:Bookmaker Paddy Power said its odds reflected a 60 per cent chance of the billionaire being impeached during his first term in office...

A Paddy Power spokesman said: "In the past 24 hours alone we’ve seen money for Trump to be impeached in his first term, resulting in us cutting the odds from 10/11 into 4/6.

"We can attribute this to the news of Comey’s sacking. [That] is the shortest we’ve been for Trump to be impeached in his first term."

... A spokesman for betting comparison site Oddschecker said: "Donald Trump to be ousted from the White House before his finishes his first term has been a popular bet since he came into power, however following his recent actions there’s been a surge of activity for this to happen before the end of the year.

"In the months following his inauguration, 58 percent of bets placed were on Trump leaving office in 2020 or later. However, since Tuesday’s shock sacking, 60 percent of bets have been on him leaving in 2017 at 2/1, a price which has shortened from 9/2 in the same time-period."
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13-05-2017, 07:20 AM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 05:22 AM)Heath_Tierney Wrote:  The recent Comey debacle in Washington and Trump's blatant obstruction of justice has generated even more impeachment talk.
The best thought I ran across is that in pressing for a special prosecutor rather than for impeachment, opponents are unwittingly doing Trump a favor.

On the other hand I question whether the average 'Murican really understands even the egregious events up to now (which, you must remember, have been heavily normalized) as impeachment-worthy. They are uneasy about it, but not sure it rises to that level. Anyone who understands history and how our government is supposed to function would find it impeachable, even treasonous ... but I think many people just think Trump is being Trump.

Because the replacement for Trump would be Pence, I rather think whatever does the most permanent damage to the reputation of the GOP and traumatizes America the most so as to fix the Trump debacle in their collective memory for generations, is what will best serve us in the long run. That probably means a credible investigation led by a special prosecutor with a constant drip of increasingly alarming allegations, FOLLOWED by an impeachment, followed perhaps by Trump decompensating enough in his mental illness to start publicly behaving like the madman he is. At that point it will have been demonstrated that we have a guilty, treasonous insane demagogue who has been enabled and abetted consistently by craven party functionaries. Then we won't even need the impeachment to conclude, he can simply be swept away in a landslide of Democratic candidates in 2020 (if not 2018).
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13-05-2017, 07:49 AM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 07:20 AM)mordant Wrote:  
(13-05-2017 05:22 AM)Heath_Tierney Wrote:  The recent Comey debacle in Washington and Trump's blatant obstruction of justice has generated even more impeachment talk.
The best thought I ran across is that in pressing for a special prosecutor rather than for impeachment, opponents are unwittingly doing Trump a favor.

On the other hand I question whether the average 'Murican really understands even the egregious events up to now (which, you must remember, have been heavily normalized) as impeachment-worthy. They are uneasy about it, but not sure it rises to that level. Anyone who understands history and how our government is supposed to function would find it impeachable, even treasonous ... but I think many people just think Trump is being Trump.

Because the replacement for Trump would be Pence, I rather think whatever does the most permanent damage to the reputation of the GOP and traumatizes America the most so as to fix the Trump debacle in their collective memory for generations, is what will best serve us in the long run. That probably means a credible investigation led by a special prosecutor with a constant drip of increasingly alarming allegations, FOLLOWED by an impeachment, followed perhaps by Trump decompensating enough in his mental illness to start publicly behaving like the madman he is. At that point it will have been demonstrated that we have a guilty, treasonous insane demagogue who has been enabled and abetted consistently by craven party functionaries. Then we won't even need the impeachment to conclude, he can simply be swept away in a landslide of Democratic candidates in 2020 (if not 2018).

Fee fi fiddle dee dee
In my crystal ball I see...

GOP backs Trump to the hilt, Trump loyalists take over everywhere, America becomes a de facto fascist state, Obama, Hillary and other prominent dissenters are arrested - it turns out the Democrats have been "undermining the state" for years - journalists are subjected to a vetting process because of the fake news scandal - the news is too important for just anyone to be allowed to say things and pretend it's news. Public citizens who are "trouble-makers" are detained for e.g. derogatory facebook posts concerning the Trump administration. War is declared with some conveniently far away nation, and terrorism is the pretext for renewed stripping away of people's rights.

Point being, political reality is a malleable thing. It could as easily go this way, as Trump getting impeached.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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13-05-2017, 07:56 AM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 07:49 AM)morondog Wrote:  Point being, political reality is a malleable thing. It could as easily go this way, as Trump getting impeached.

While I agree that our political future is uncertain, so many firewalls in our democracy would have to be breached for your scenario to come true that I consider it highly improbable.

I am another person who thinks it probable that Trump will not last his full term, but I think it most likely of all that he will quit in frustration and blame it all on others.
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13-05-2017, 10:29 AM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 07:56 AM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  
(13-05-2017 07:49 AM)morondog Wrote:  Point being, political reality is a malleable thing. It could as easily go this way, as Trump getting impeached.

While I agree that our political future is uncertain, so many firewalls in our democracy would have to be breached for your scenario to come true that I consider it highly improbable.

I'm not just fear-mongering Undecided I saw this happen in my own country. Our president, a respected world leader, became a pariah. Our government, once a model for the region, became a kleptocracy. Our economy, once one of the strongest in Africa, collapsed. No one among the intelligentsia or middle class saw it coming. Everyone kept thinking "This is absurd, there's got to be a line, they can't fuck things up forever, it's counter-productive for them also". And ya know, they *could* fuck things up properly and they did. If it seems like it won't happen to you guys, don't take it for granted. It needs active opposition.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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13-05-2017, 11:53 AM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 07:49 AM)morondog Wrote:  (heavily dystopian musings here)

Point being, political reality is a malleable thing. It could as easily go this way, as Trump getting impeached.
I'm afraid I pretty much agree, this is now a plausible scenario. Heck, I probably shouldn't be posting HERE like this, the storm troopers may eventually come for me. Much less liking a Trump-denigrating post on FB or Twitter.

If I were young and unattached I'd flee this country for the backwoods of Colombia or something, while one can still do it.
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13-05-2017, 12:02 PM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 07:56 AM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  
(13-05-2017 07:49 AM)morondog Wrote:  Point being, political reality is a malleable thing. It could as easily go this way, as Trump getting impeached.
While I agree that our political future is uncertain, so many firewalls in our democracy would have to be breached for your scenario to come true that I consider it highly improbable.

I am another person who thinks it probable that Trump will not last his full term, but I think it most likely of all that he will quit in frustration and blame it all on others.
I certainly hope you are correct. But how likely did anyone think things would be even THIS bad? I mean the Trump administration is already most people's worst case scenario, everyone was rooting for that "pivot" to being presidential that never happened, were hoping he would be so awed by the actual responsibilities of his office and the vastness of the institutions he is responsible for that he would suddenly become a humble student of democracy, or at least allow the adults in the room to run things while he golfed. There doesn't seem like there's a bottom to it, or a maximum to how craven the GOP will be in not ever finding a bridge too far.

I would be delighted to wake up some morning to find that Trump was in a straightjacket because he lost it in front of the TV playing CNN and smashed his Hungry Hungry Hippos game in frustration and wet his pants and started babbling about a Martian invasion. Or that somehow just a half dozen GOP senators found enough conscience to take a stand for an independent investigator or impeachment.

But even though we have multiple safeguards in place and complex systems tend to be self healing, I see us eroding and stressing so many of them, and normalizing so many things that were unthinkable just months ago, that I'm sorry, but horrible scenarios no longer seem unlikely. It really COULD go either way.

Mark my words, and I hope you throw them back in my face someday soon with a heapin' helpin' of ridicule. But don't be so sure you'll get the chance.
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13-05-2017, 12:28 PM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 05:22 AM)Heath_Tierney Wrote:  And bookmakers now see a Trump impeachment at 60%.

I should've bought at 50.

#sigh
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13-05-2017, 01:42 PM
RE: The Trump Impeachment Thread
(13-05-2017 12:02 PM)mordant Wrote:  I certainly hope you are correct. But how likely did anyone think things would be even THIS bad?

What I have seen of Trump is pretty much what I expected. He was always a worst-case example of the Dunning-Kruger effect, and for Republicans he was always a useful idiot. When he embarrasses enough people who know better, they will stop cooperating with him even in appearance. I don't think his personality will be able to stand being an almost complete failure of a president. That's why I think he might quit at some point. He almost certainly will not blame himself for his failures.
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