The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
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01-09-2012, 12:18 AM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
(01-09-2012 12:15 AM)Phaedrus Wrote:  
(01-09-2012 12:12 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  A lot of your assumptions are not true. Increasingly, it takes less energy to sustain an individual, not more, as efficiencies, and economies of scale, increase.
You also presume, that there will not be a population crash, which is inevitable. As hoc said, we will be bio-machines. (see Ray Kurzweil). Expanding beyond Earth, is not in the cards, in the foreseeable future. Maybe the universe is cosmic consciousness, already ?

I disagree. Compare more advanced parts of our global society to the less advanced. It takes more resources and energy to maintain a western standard of living that it does to maintain the standard of living in someplace like India, or more dramatically in Ethiopia or Tanzania.

On the timescales I'm talking about a population crash doesn't matter unless it takes us back to the bronze age and we never regain a technological civilization; something I find a dubious proposition itself.

Prove it. Show me the studies.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein Certified Ancient Astronaut Theorist and Levitating yogi, CAAT-LY.
Yeah, for verily I say unto thee, and this we know : Jebus no likey that which doth tickle thee unto thy nether regions.

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01-09-2012, 12:22 AM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE

I hope you find the World Bank to be a credible source.

The trend is clear. While some countries move up and some move down, the more developed countries inevitably use more energy than the less developed ones.

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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01-09-2012, 12:32 AM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
(01-09-2012 12:22 AM)Phaedrus Wrote:  http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE

I hope you find the World Bank to be a credible source.

The trend is clear. While some countries move up and some move down, the more developed countries inevitably use more energy than the less developed ones.

Assumes only oil energy. Assumes present population growth rates will remain constant. Sample of years needs to back at least 200 years. Sorry. I don't buy it.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein Certified Ancient Astronaut Theorist and Levitating yogi, CAAT-LY.
Yeah, for verily I say unto thee, and this we know : Jebus no likey that which doth tickle thee unto thy nether regions.

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01-09-2012, 09:54 AM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
No... Assumes nothing. That's just raw data with no interpretation. That's oil energy EQUIVALENT, that is all energy is estimated then measured in terms the equivalent amount of oil you would have to burn to get that energy. Population growth rate doesn't figure into it at all, this is per capita energy use. And asking for the data to go back 200 years is just asinine. Why are you making such a fuss over this? The data is clear. What are you, a creationist?

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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01-09-2012, 02:10 PM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
Anyway, the more developed countries use more energy per capita and resources in general, except for land which is inefficiently used by subsistence farming in undeveloped countries. Even disregarding statistics this is easy to observe:

A tribesman in Tanzania will own hand-made tools with perhaps a few simple metal and plastic tools acquired through trade or charity. He will accomplish work through the use of his body and animal labor. He will have few or no electronics except, if he is rich/lucky, a cell phone or radio. His food will be grown by his own hands, or will be occasionally be provided to him by aid workers.

Compare that to an American named Joe. He will live in a building with electrical wiring and plumbing and major appliances with advanced electronics, he will own many extremely sophisticated electronic devices like computers, cell phones, TVs, game consoles, tablets, and more, as well as many electronic minor appliances. He will get to work using a car, or if he's health conscious a bike. He will work using one or more computers of varying sophistication.

Aside from direct electricity use and oil consumption, consider the power required to manufacture and distribute goods. It probably takes more energy to build a car than is used by that Tanzanian tribe member in an entire year. That computer of Joe's uses dozens or hundreds of watts of power and was built overseas and transported by ship, train, and truck to a retail store or online distributor before it reached Joe. All that takes energy, all that takes resources.

I'm sure if you compare a modern lifestyle in America to one from the 1970s, the 1940s, the 1890s, the 1840s, and the 1750s you'll see a clear trend of increasing energy usage as time goes on.

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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01-09-2012, 02:27 PM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
(01-09-2012 02:10 PM)Phaedrus Wrote:  Anyway, the more developed countries use more energy per capita and resources in general, except for land which is inefficiently used by subsistence farming in undeveloped countries. Even disregarding statistics this is easy to observe:

A tribesman in Tanzania will own hand-made tools with perhaps a few simple metal and plastic tools acquired through trade or charity. He will accomplish work through the use of his body and animal labor. He will have few or no electronics except, if he is rich/lucky, a cell phone or radio. His food will be grown by his own hands, or will be occasionally be provided to him by aid workers.

Compare that to an American named Joe. He will live in a building with electrical wiring and plumbing and major appliances with advanced electronics, he will own many extremely sophisticated electronic devices like computers, cell phones, TVs, game consoles, tablets, and more, as well as many electronic minor appliances. He will get to work using a car, or if he's health conscious a bike. He will work using one or more computers of varying sophistication.

Aside from direct electricity use and oil consumption, consider the power required to manufacture and distribute goods. It probably takes more energy to build a car than is used by that Tanzanian tribe member in an entire year. That computer of Joe's uses dozens or hundreds of watts of power and was built overseas and transported by ship, train, and truck to a retail store or online distributor before it reached Joe. All that takes energy, all that takes resources.

I'm sure if you compare a modern lifestyle in America to one from the 1970s, the 1940s, the 1890s, the 1840s, and the 1750s you'll see a clear trend of increasing energy usage as time goes on.

Prove it. The cost of food is steadily DECREASING.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein Certified Ancient Astronaut Theorist and Levitating yogi, CAAT-LY.
Yeah, for verily I say unto thee, and this we know : Jebus no likey that which doth tickle thee unto thy nether regions.

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01-09-2012, 02:28 PM
The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
(01-09-2012 02:27 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(01-09-2012 02:10 PM)Phaedrus Wrote:  Anyway, the more developed countries use more energy per capita and resources in general, except for land which is inefficiently used by subsistence farming in undeveloped countries. Even disregarding statistics this is easy to observe:

A tribesman in Tanzania will own hand-made tools with perhaps a few simple metal and plastic tools acquired through trade or charity. He will accomplish work through the use of his body and animal labor. He will have few or no electronics except, if he is rich/lucky, a cell phone or radio. His food will be grown by his own hands, or will be occasionally be provided to him by aid workers.

Compare that to an American named Joe. He will live in a building with electrical wiring and plumbing and major appliances with advanced electronics, he will own many extremely sophisticated electronic devices like computers, cell phones, TVs, game consoles, tablets, and more, as well as many electronic minor appliances. He will get to work using a car, or if he's health conscious a bike. He will work using one or more computers of varying sophistication.

Aside from direct electricity use and oil consumption, consider the power required to manufacture and distribute goods. It probably takes more energy to build a car than is used by that Tanzanian tribe member in an entire year. That computer of Joe's uses dozens or hundreds of watts of power and was built overseas and transported by ship, train, and truck to a retail store or online distributor before it reached Joe. All that takes energy, all that takes resources.

I'm sure if you compare a modern lifestyle in America to one from the 1970s, the 1940s, the 1890s, the 1840s, and the 1750s you'll see a clear trend of increasing energy usage as time goes on.

Prove it. The cost of food is steadily DECREASING.

Where do you shop? Dodgy

"All that is necessary for the triumph of Calvinism is that good Atheists do nothing." ~Eric Oh My
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01-09-2012, 02:57 PM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
What does the cost of food have to do with any of this?

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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01-09-2012, 03:05 PM (This post was last modified: 01-10-2012 12:23 AM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
(01-09-2012 02:28 PM)Erxomai Wrote:  
(01-09-2012 02:27 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  Prove it. The cost of food is steadily DECREASING.

Where do you shop? Dodgy

I'm looking for a study of the total cost or marginal cost of food related to total income. I know that is decreasing. I wrote it for a paper once. Now i cant find it. It's on the FDA web site I think. It steadily decreased from the 1920's to the 1990's leveled off, and started decreasing again, I think. I'll look later.

One of my dad's friends is a Epidemiologist. There WILL be a population crash, he says, whether Bird flu, or whatever, it will happen.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein Certified Ancient Astronaut Theorist and Levitating yogi, CAAT-LY.
Yeah, for verily I say unto thee, and this we know : Jebus no likey that which doth tickle thee unto thy nether regions.

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01-09-2012, 03:09 PM
The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
(01-09-2012 03:05 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(01-09-2012 02:28 PM)Erxomai Wrote:  Where do you shop? Dodgy

I'm looking for a study of the total cost or marginal cost of food related to total income. I know that is decreasing. I wrote it for a paper once. Now i cant find it. It's on the FDA web site I think. It steadily decreased from the 1920's to the 1990's leveled off, and started decreasing again, I think. I'll look later.

One of my dads friends is a Epidemiologist. There WILL be a population crash, he says, whether Bird flu, or whatever, it will happen.


All I know is my income is steadily decreasing and I'm paying more for food. Let the Zombies come and get me. I'm ready for a crash.

"All that is necessary for the triumph of Calvinism is that good Atheists do nothing." ~Eric Oh My
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