The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
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01-09-2012, 03:21 PM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
Cost of a transistor 1990 : $10, today $00.03
Micro processor clock speed 1975 : 10^6, today 10^10.5
$/Transistor/Hz 1975 : 10-8, today : 10-18
Transistor/microprocesssor 1970 : 10^3, today 10^8+
Processor performance 1970 : 0.01MIPS, today : 10,000 +
See Moore's paradigm : "Exponential growth in computing"
etc etc etc.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein
Those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music - Friedrich Nietzsche
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01-09-2012, 03:44 PM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
Cost =/= energy. I don't see why this is hard to grasp.

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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01-09-2012, 04:04 PM (This post was last modified: 01-09-2012 04:29 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
Ya, I get that. You started this with a grim scenario. I don't dispute that. But what if we figure out cold fusion ? Then your energy scenario is out the window. Why do you think that won't happen. Oil will run out, if we don't ruin the earth by global warming first. Have you ever seen the HUGE plastic dumps in the middle of the oceans ?
The populations of Italy and Japan are today, not reproducing themselves, and many advanced societies have falling birth rates. I just think you're honed in on stuff that's not really important, and ignoring stuff that is. The ONLY reason the world is eating today is because of this one guy : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein
Those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music - Friedrich Nietzsche
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01-09-2012, 04:23 PM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
I don't think you understand the scale I'm talking about. I'm applying concepts of deep time to the future of humanity. Oil running out, a food crisis, pollution, all fall into insignificance when you look at it on a geological and cosmological time scale. Not that these aren't immediate problems that we have to face up to, but in the longest term we will either overcome them and follow a course similar to what I described, or our civilization will end. Assuming it doesn't end, something similar to what I described will probably happen.

E 2 = (mc 2)2 + (pc )2
614C → 714N + e + ̅νe
2 K(s) + 2 H2O(l) → 2 KOH(aq) + H2 (g) + 196 kJ/mol
It works, bitches.
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01-09-2012, 04:31 PM (This post was last modified: 01-09-2012 04:35 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
Ya ok. I agree. So go have sex. I'll stay here and try to figure out how to hop over to a different universe. Big Grin
BTW, if Dark Energy and Dark Matter are properties which arise from the fabric of space itself, you can stop worrying.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein
Those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music - Friedrich Nietzsche
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01-09-2012, 04:40 PM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
Extinction.Drinking Beverage

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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30-09-2012, 11:16 AM (This post was last modified: 30-09-2012 11:01 PM by imlemuel.)
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
You need to watch Matt Ridley's TED talk, "When Ideas Have Sex.". This talk is one of the primary reasons that my opinions about the future of mankind has switched from being pessimistic to being optimistic...at least in the short term. Deep time, long term is a whole other topic. But we have to get there first. http://www.ted.com/talks/matt_ridley_whe...e_sex.html


TED in general has helped my whole outlook on life. It's great to hear people talk about out future as if we actually HAD one!

(edited to fix broken link)
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30-09-2012, 11:22 AM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/matt_ri...e_sex.html

Updated link. Will scope in a minute. Thumbsup

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01-10-2012, 12:14 AM
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
For anyone who has a real interest in this subject, I strongly recommend reading "The Golden Age" trilogy, by John C. Wright. http://www.amazon.com/Golden-Age-Book/dp/0812579844

It's a science fiction series, set 10,000 years in the future. I question the plausibility of quite a bit of it...but I don't think I've every read another book where the author had so completely thought out some of the ramifications of a world where death has been conquered, machine intelligence has surpassed our own and the lines separating the virtual world, the machine world, and the real world have been blurred to the point that they don't effectively exist any more.
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01-10-2012, 03:24 AM (This post was last modified: 01-10-2012 04:08 AM by depat.)
RE: The Ultimate Fate of the Human Species
Phaedrus:
Is the need for more resources to support new industries the only answer for "advancement"? I suppose I am unable to see the word advancement used here as a positive. Must we continue our plundering elsewhere? I do believe that an ecological "train wreck" is fast approaching as we have surpassed our ability to live sustainably with the planet.
The techcnological advances needed to get us off the planet, I believe, is further ahead than can reasonably be reached before our "train wreck."
I am hoping for more, that our great, great, great progeny will work out another way to live; that is, a way to value all life, all resources. To live very differently here and hopefully elsewhere.
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