The internet world says this
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11-12-2015, 03:12 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 08:11 PM)Theorist Wrote:  NNNNN

number of choice 5


number of one side heads or tails of the coins in the results undetermined
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11-12-2015, 03:27 AM
RE: The internet world says this
I agree with the op. The coins have been flipped so there is a result.that means the chance to pick the result of a new dice isn't 1/2 anymore. You'd have to know the result of the flips to know the chance of being right. If the choice was made before the coin flips the probability would be 1/2.

But let's say it turned out:

H T H H T. Then the probability of picking heads would be 3/2.
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11-12-2015, 03:29 AM
RE: The internet world says this
To be honest, I'm somewhat surprised that "The internet world" got something right.

Big Grin

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11-12-2015, 03:42 AM
RE: The internet world says this
experiment 1: toss 5 coins and record result.
experiment 2: randomly choose 1 coin from the result of experiment 1 and record its orientation.

You are comparing two different things. You don't know you're gonna get an HHHHH result for experiment 1, so if you predict the result of experiment 2 *before performing experiment 1* then you have to say that the outcome of experiment 2 is H with probability .5, otherwise T.

If you perform experiment 1, and look at the result, and *then* perform experiment 2, of course you have *more information* now, to predict the result of experiment 2, so if you get HHHHH then *of course* experiment 2 will produce H with probability 1.

You cheated - you didn't predict that experiment 2 would produce H *before* performing Experiment 1.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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11-12-2015, 04:34 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 03:27 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  I agree with the op. The coins have been flipped so there is a result.that means the chance to pick the result of a new dice isn't 1/2 anymore. You'd have to know the result of the flips to know the chance of being right. If the choice was made before the coin flips the probability would be 1/2.

But let's say it turned out:

H T H H T. Then the probability of picking heads would be 3/2.

I understand what OP is trying to say. Your chances of picking heads depends on how many heads came in 5 flips. If head comes all 5 times, then your chances of picking heads is 100% , if it came all tails, your chances are 0%. If it came H T T T T, your chances are 20% and so on...

But that is completely irrelevant to any kind of math problem. You can`t calculate the odds if you take known results into the calculation.

That`s like saying "If I know that Barcelona won the Champions league, what are the odds of me guessing that Barcelona is going to win the Champions league "

Point is, for any number of flips there is 50% chance that any flip is going to result in heads. If you flip the coin 5 times there will be 2.5 heads on average in that sample ( it doesn`t matter mathematically that OP chose the odd number of flips to confuse things ).
So, in any sample of 5 flips , there will be 2.5 heads on average. Therefore 2.5/5, still 50% Drinking Beverage

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11-12-2015, 04:48 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 04:34 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 03:27 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  I agree with the op. The coins have been flipped so there is a result.that means the chance to pick the result of a new dice isn't 1/2 anymore. You'd have to know the result of the flips to know the chance of being right. If the choice was made before the coin flips the probability would be 1/2.

But let's say it turned out:

H T H H T. Then the probability of picking heads would be 3/2.

I understand what OP is trying to say. Your chances of picking heads depends on how many heads came in 5 flips. If head comes all 5 times, then your chances of picking heads is 100% , if it came all tails, your chances are 0%. If it came H T T T T, your chances are 20% and so on...

But that is completely irrelevant to any kind of math problem. You can`t calculate the odds if you take known results into the calculation.

That`s like saying "If I know that Barcelona won the Champions league, what are the odds of me guessing that Barcelona is going to win the Champions league "

Point is, for any number of flips there is 50% chance that any flip is going to result in heads. If you flip the coin 5 times there will be 2.5 heads on average in that sample ( it doesn`t matter mathematically that OP chose the odd number of flips to confuse things ).
So, in any sample of 5 flips , there will be 2.5 heads on average. Therefore 2.5/5, still 50% Drinking Beverage

I agree that the one who has to pick can't calculate the odds. But the one who did the flips can.
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11-12-2015, 05:14 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 04:48 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 04:34 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  I understand what OP is trying to say. Your chances of picking heads depends on how many heads came in 5 flips. If head comes all 5 times, then your chances of picking heads is 100% , if it came all tails, your chances are 0%. If it came H T T T T, your chances are 20% and so on...

But that is completely irrelevant to any kind of math problem. You can`t calculate the odds if you take known results into the calculation.

That`s like saying "If I know that Barcelona won the Champions league, what are the odds of me guessing that Barcelona is going to win the Champions league "

Point is, for any number of flips there is 50% chance that any flip is going to result in heads. If you flip the coin 5 times there will be 2.5 heads on average in that sample ( it doesn`t matter mathematically that OP chose the odd number of flips to confuse things ).
So, in any sample of 5 flips , there will be 2.5 heads on average. Therefore 2.5/5, still 50% Drinking Beverage

I agree that the one who has to pick can't calculate the odds. But the one who did the flips can.

Only *after* flipping, not before.

OP seems to be claiming that somehow mystically the odds *before* flipping, that the one who picks will get a head, are not 50/50.

OP could bloody well word his crap better Dodgy

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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11-12-2015, 05:43 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 05:14 AM)morondog Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 04:48 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  I agree that the one who has to pick can't calculate the odds. But the one who did the flips can.

Only *after* flipping, not before.

OP seems to be claiming that somehow mystically the odds *before* flipping, that the one who picks will get a head, are not 50/50.

OP could bloody well word his crap better Dodgy

It's quite clear to me:

(10-12-2015 05:34 PM)Theorist Wrote:  Take 5 coins, toss each coin and place the coin on a table or counter, result side up.


They insist that if we were to then hide the 5 results and asked another party to pick one of the 5 results, that they would have a 1/2 chance of heads.
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11-12-2015, 06:11 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 05:43 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 05:14 AM)morondog Wrote:  Only *after* flipping, not before.

OP seems to be claiming that somehow mystically the odds *before* flipping, that the one who picks will get a head, are not 50/50.

OP could bloody well word his crap better Dodgy

It's quite clear to me:

(10-12-2015 05:34 PM)Theorist Wrote:  Take 5 coins, toss each coin and place the coin on a table or counter, result side up.


They insist that if we were to then hide the 5 results and asked another party to pick one of the 5 results, that they would have a 1/2 chance of heads.

He didn't state when the prediction of H takes place, unless it takes place *after* the draw, in which case it's pointlessly easy - however many H are in the 5 coin sample divided by 5.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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11-12-2015, 08:05 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 04:34 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 03:27 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  I agree with the op. The coins have been flipped so there is a result.that means the chance to pick the result of a new dice isn't 1/2 anymore. You'd have to know the result of the flips to know the chance of being right. If the choice was made before the coin flips the probability would be 1/2.

But let's say it turned out:

H T H H T. Then the probability of picking heads would be 3/2.

I understand what OP is trying to say. Your chances of picking heads depends on how many heads came in 5 flips. If head comes all 5 times, then your chances of picking heads is 100% , if it came all tails, your chances are 0%. If it came H T T T T, your chances are 20% and so on...

But that is completely irrelevant to any kind of math problem. You can`t calculate the odds if you take known results into the calculation.

That`s like saying "If I know that Barcelona won the Champions league, what are the odds of me guessing that Barcelona is going to win the Champions league "

Point is, for any number of flips there is 50% chance that any flip is going to result in heads. If you flip the coin 5 times there will be 2.5 heads on average in that sample ( it doesn`t matter mathematically that OP chose the odd number of flips to confuse things ).
So, in any sample of 5 flips , there will be 2.5 heads on average. Therefore 2.5/5, still 50% Drinking Beverage

You are wrong it doesn't matter if I don't tell you or know the results.

NNNNN


The information we know is that we can work out the chance of 1 heads, 2 heads, etc, which is not 1/2
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