The internet world says this
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11-12-2015, 10:22 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 04:48 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 04:34 AM)Slowminded Wrote:  I understand what OP is trying to say. Your chances of picking heads depends on how many heads came in 5 flips. If head comes all 5 times, then your chances of picking heads is 100% , if it came all tails, your chances are 0%. If it came H T T T T, your chances are 20% and so on...

But that is completely irrelevant to any kind of math problem. You can`t calculate the odds if you take known results into the calculation.

That`s like saying "If I know that Barcelona won the Champions league, what are the odds of me guessing that Barcelona is going to win the Champions league "

Point is, for any number of flips there is 50% chance that any flip is going to result in heads. If you flip the coin 5 times there will be 2.5 heads on average in that sample ( it doesn`t matter mathematically that OP chose the odd number of flips to confuse things ).
So, in any sample of 5 flips , there will be 2.5 heads on average. Therefore 2.5/5, still 50% Drinking Beverage

I agree that the one who has to pick can't calculate the odds. But the one who did the flips can.

You understand sir, thank you. also the picker can calculate the chance of there being only 1 heads etc.
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11-12-2015, 10:24 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 10:00 AM)Theorist Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 09:57 AM)kim Wrote:  I saw no question being asked.

It is in the posts somewhere.

The question is - If you are offered a choice of hidden results from such of a dice roll, a coin toss, or the picking of a cards from decks of cards, does this change the original chance/probability.

A few people have already agreed in principle.

Stating this in your first would have made for a more enjoyable conversation.

Changing an origional possibility with a hidden variant might change the original possibility or not.

That might be an answer. Anyone's guess is just as good. Drinking Beverage I'm not hung up on manipulating people.

A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move to higher levels. ~ Albert Einstein
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11-12-2015, 10:29 AM
RE: The internet world says this
1/2*(1/2)^4*5= 0.15625

The chance of 1/5 is 0.15625=15.6%
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11-12-2015, 10:31 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 10:24 AM)kim Wrote:  Stating this in your first would have made for a more enjoyable conversation.

Changing an origional possibility with a hidden variant might change the original possibility or not.

That might be an answer. Anyone's guess is just as good. Drinking Beverage I'm not hung up on manipulating people.

I am not manipulating, i was guiding people to see the answer for themselves instead of just quoting back present thinking.
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11-12-2015, 10:46 AM
RE: The internet world says this
To clarify
123
123
123

If I can see the above and you can't see this, and I offer you a choice of the first values, and I tell you , your odds are 1/3,and 2 is a winner, I am committing fraud?
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11-12-2015, 10:54 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 09:12 AM)DerFish Wrote:  Now we have moved on to chromosomes? Cards then dice and now chromosomes?

And then…Jeebus!
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11-12-2015, 11:07 AM
RE: The internet world says this
I can't believe this shit is still spewing here. This is a trivial middle school probability problem that Theorist.is incapable of grasping.

(11-12-2015 03:27 AM)Nishi Karano Kaze Wrote:  I agree with the op. The coins have been flipped so there is a result.that means the chance to pick the result of a new dice isn't 1/2 anymore. You'd have to know the result of the flips to know the chance of being right. If the choice was made before the coin flips the probability would be 1/2.

But let's say it turned out:

H T H H T. Then the probability of picking heads would be 3/2.

Dude you just said the probability of picking heads is 150%. Facepalm

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11-12-2015, 11:11 AM
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 10:31 AM)Theorist Wrote:  
(11-12-2015 10:24 AM)kim Wrote:  Stating this in your first would have made for a more enjoyable conversation.

Changing an origional possibility with a hidden variant might change the original possibility or not.

That might be an answer. Anyone's guess is just as good. Drinking Beverage I'm not hung up on manipulating people.

I am not manipulating, i was guiding people to see the answer for themselves instead of just quoting back present thinking.

(11-12-2015 10:46 AM)Theorist Wrote:  To clarify
123
123
123

If I can see the above and you can't see this, and I offer you a choice of the first values, and I tell you , your odds are 1/3,and 2 is a winner, I am committing fraud?

"Hidden" variants might indicate manipulation in the outcome of a problem. I did not state that you were manipulating. Nor did I claim you to present fraud.

But now that you mention it... someone does offer an abundance of protest. Shy

A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move to higher levels. ~ Albert Einstein
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11-12-2015, 11:17 AM
RE: The internet world says this
Theorist must've been a student of msbiljanica. Facepalm

SRDANOVA MATHEMATICS

Mathematics - a new basis

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11-12-2015, 11:26 AM (This post was last modified: 11-12-2015 11:29 AM by DLJ.)
RE: The internet world says this
(11-12-2015 10:29 AM)Theorist Wrote:  1/2*(1/2)^4*5= 0.15625

The chance of 1/5 is 0.15625=15.6%

Am I right in thinking that this is the calculation for choosing heads (H) if the 5 coins had been flipped and landed:

1. HTTTT
2. THTTT
3. TTHTT
4. TTTHT
5. TTTTH

Yes?

Your question was:
Quote: if we were to then hide the 5 results and asked another party to pick one of the 5 results, that they would have a 1/2 chance of heads.

Are you forgetting that heads can also be chosen if the flip gave these results...?
1. HHTTT
2. HTHTT
3. HTTHT
4. HTTTH
5. THHTT
6. THTHT
7. THTTH
8. TTHHT
9. TTHTH
10. TTTHH
11. HHHTT
12. HHTHT
13. HHTTH
14. HTHHT
15. HTHTH
16. HTTHH
17. THHHT
18. THHTH
19. THTHH
20. TTHHH
21. HHHHT
22. HHHTH
23. HHTHH
24. HTHHH
25. THHHH
26. HHHHH

The only set of 5 flips that could not offer a head is:
1. TTTTT

Total = 32

At any position (1st to 5th) there are 16 x Hs. There are 32 possible combinations.

If I pick any of the coins without knowledge of the combinations (as stated in your question) I have 16/32 possibilities of picking an H = 1/2.

What did I miss?

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