The internet world says this
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10-12-2015, 06:36 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:30 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:28 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Each individual result has probability 1/2 heads and 1/2 tails. Pick any one of the 5 and there is 50/50 chance it is heads. Don't matter if you picked the first, second, third, fourth, or fifth.

That is not the question, if you toss a coin 5 times and write down the results, then ask someone to pick a result, i.e all 5 results could be heads, so the picker has a 5/5 chance of heads in this outcome.

But all heads is only one of 32 possible sequences. Odds are not determined after the fact.

#sigh
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10-12-2015, 06:36 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:33 PM)Slowminded Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:26 PM)Theorist Wrote:  The related maths is probability, I do not want to advance the topic without basic understanding firstly from participants in the discussion. There is 5 results you are picking 1 of 5 results.
You are not picking from 5 results, coin has only 2 sides. You are picking 1 out of 2 possible results. Thus, your chances are 1/2.

OK?

Your not picking from 5 results? My questions says you are picking from 5 results.

NNNNN

five results pick one, what is your chance of heads from the results?
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10-12-2015, 06:37 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:34 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:31 PM)izel Wrote:  Laugh out load

No Gotcha question, only facts.

Hey Pablo did you hear that? Rolleyes

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10-12-2015, 06:38 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:36 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:30 PM)Theorist Wrote:  That is not the question, if you toss a coin 5 times and write down the results, then ask someone to pick a result, i.e all 5 results could be heads, so the picker has a 5/5 chance of heads in this outcome.

But all heads is only one of 32 possible sequences. Odds are not determined after the fact.

Well actually we can calculate how probable the 5 unknown results have exactly 1 heads, and so on.
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10-12-2015, 06:42 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:30 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:28 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Each individual result has probability 1/2 heads and 1/2 tails. Pick any one of the 5 and there is 50/50 chance it is heads. Don't matter if you picked the first, second, third, fourth, or fifth.

That is not the question, if you toss a coin 5 times and write down the results, then ask someone to pick a result, i.e all 5 results could be heads, so the picker has a 5/5 chance of heads in this outcome.

You are not being clear at all but if the someone is being asked to pick one of 5 independent events then the chances are 1/2 that it is heads. The other 4 do not change the odds that any given coin flip is heads or tails.

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10-12-2015, 06:43 PM
RE: The internet world says this
There are only two possible outcomes for each coin. If you were to use one, five sided die, your chances would be 1/5.
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10-12-2015, 06:43 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:38 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:36 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  But all heads is only one of 32 possible sequences. Odds are not determined after the fact.

Well actually we can calculate how probable the 5 unknown results have exactly 1 heads, and so on.

That's not the question you initially asked though.

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10-12-2015, 06:44 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:36 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:33 PM)Slowminded Wrote:  You are not picking from 5 results, coin has only 2 sides. You are picking 1 out of 2 possible results. Thus, your chances are 1/2.

OK?

Your not picking from 5 results? My questions says you are picking from 5 results.

NNNNN

five results pick one, what is your chance of heads from the results?

It does not matter how many coins you use. The person choosing does not have the knowledge of what the results were. Your knowledge of the results has no bearing on the chooser's odds.

Every coin had a 0.5 probability for heads and 0.5 for tails. No matter how many coins there are, each coin has the same probability distribution.

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10-12-2015, 06:44 PM (This post was last modified: 10-12-2015 06:47 PM by Theorist.)
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:42 PM)unfogged Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:30 PM)Theorist Wrote:  That is not the question, if you toss a coin 5 times and write down the results, then ask someone to pick a result, i.e all 5 results could be heads, so the picker has a 5/5 chance of heads in this outcome.

You are not being clear at all but if the someone is being asked to pick one of 5 independent events then the chances are 1/2 that it is heads. The other 4 do not change the odds that any given coin flip is heads or tails.

You are being asked to pick one of 5 independent results.

0.15625 15.6% chance that the 5 results contain exactly one heads or one tails.
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10-12-2015, 06:46 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:44 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:36 PM)Theorist Wrote:  Your not picking from 5 results? My questions says you are picking from 5 results.

NNNNN

five results pick one, what is your chance of heads from the results?

It does not matter how many coins you use. The person choosing does not have the knowledge of what the results were. Your knowledge of the results has no bearing on the chooser's odds.

Every coin had a 0.5 probability for heads and 0.5 for tails. No matter how many coins there are, each coin has the same probability distribution.
5 independent tosses produce 5 independent results. All 5 results could be tails, all 5 results could be heads, there could be a mix, the results become a one sided coin, there is no other side.
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