The internet world says this
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
10-12-2015, 06:56 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:54 PM)unfogged Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:44 PM)Theorist Wrote:  You are being asked to pick one of 5 independent results.

0.15625 15.6% chance that the 5 results contain exactly one heads or one tails.

Again, that wasn't your initial question. I quote
"They insist that if we were to then hide the 5 results and asked another party to pick one of the 5 results, that they would have a 1/2 chance of heads. "

The other party is picking a single coin flip and every individual coin flip has a 1/2 chance of being heads. You said nothing about the mix containing only 1 heads or one tails.

I have not said the 5 cards contain 1 heads or 1 tails, I did the maths that shows the maths of the chance the 5 results contain exactly one heads or exactly one tails. The results of the 5 are unknown to the picker,
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-12-2015, 07:00 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 05:34 PM)Theorist Wrote:  They insist that if we were to then hide the 5 results and asked another party to pick one of the 5 results, that they would have a 1/2 chance of heads.

Your original post mentioned one of the results. Five coins, five results. Each coin is independent, unlike a deck of cards which makes each draw different.

For each coin, you're 50/50.

If you mean the results of flipping all five, then 32 possible outcomes as Girly said (2^5, because H/T x H/T x H/T x H/T x H/T). You can't have 50/50 because you can't say for sure all are heads or all are tails.

Now cut to the chase and show your math. You're acting like a 3-year-old who keeps saying, "I got a secret but I ain't telling!"
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 3 users Like Clockwork's post
10-12-2015, 07:03 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:56 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:54 PM)unfogged Wrote:  Again, that wasn't your initial question. I quote
"They insist that if we were to then hide the 5 results and asked another party to pick one of the 5 results, that they would have a 1/2 chance of heads. "

The other party is picking a single coin flip and every individual coin flip has a 1/2 chance of being heads. You said nothing about the mix containing only 1 heads or one tails.

I have not said the 5 cards contain 1 heads or 1 tails, I did the maths that shows the maths of the chance the 5 results contain exactly one heads or exactly one tails. The results of the 5 are unknown to the picker,

*coins

Go back and read what you posted. You did not ask what the odds were that there was exactly 1 heads or 1 tails, you asked what the odds were that any randomly selected coin flip was heads.

Of the 32 possible arrangements of 5 flips, 5 have 1 head and 4 tails so I agree that the odds that there is only 1 head is 5/32. That doesn't change the fact that the odds of any single coin flip is 1/2.

Atheism: it's not just for communists any more!
America July 4 1776 - November 8 2016 RIP
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-12-2015, 07:06 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 07:00 PM)Clockwork Wrote:  You can't have 50/50 because you can't say for sure all are heads or all are tails. [/b]


Ok , the maths would be to show exactly 1 heads or tails


1/2*(1/2)^4*5=0.15625

And you agree the chance of choosing a result is unknown.


Ok, moving onto the proper scenario because you seem to understand the first part.


Take 52 random cards , one from each deck of 52 decks.


What is your chance of an ace choosing from the result?
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-12-2015, 07:08 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 07:03 PM)unfogged Wrote:  Of the 32 possible arrangements of 5 flips, 5 have 1 head and 4 tails so I agree that the odds that there is only 1 head is 5/32. That doesn't change the fact that the odds of any single coin flip is 1/2.


Thank you, the flip is before the results we are only using the results, So you agree the chance could be a range.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-12-2015, 07:09 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 07:06 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 07:00 PM)Clockwork Wrote:  You can't have 50/50 because you can't say for sure all are heads or all are tails. [/b]


Ok , the maths would be to show exactly 1 heads or tails


1/2*(1/2)^4*5=0.15625

And you agree the chance of choosing a result is unknown.


Ok, moving onto the proper scenario because you seem to understand the first part.


Take 52 random cards , one from each deck of 52 decks.


What is your chance of an ace choosing from the result?

How is this in any way the same as your original question?
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-12-2015, 07:09 PM
RE: The internet world says this
double post.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-12-2015, 07:09 PM (This post was last modified: 10-12-2015 07:14 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:38 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:36 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  But all heads is only one of 32 possible sequences. Odds are not determined after the fact.

Well actually we can calculate how probable the 5 unknown results have exactly 1 heads, and so on.

Sure. Just enumerate all 32 possibilities and count. The probability of exactly 1 head anywhere in 5 coin tosses is 5 in 32. The probability of exactly 2 heads anywhere in 5 coin tosses is 5 in 16. The probability of exactly 3 heads anywhere in 5 coin tosses is 5 in 16. The odds of exactly 4 heads anywhere in 5 coin tosses is 5 in 32. And the odds of 5 heads in 5 coin tosses is 1 in 32. And the odds of 0 heads in 5 coin tosses is also 1 in 32.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-12-2015, 07:10 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 06:52 PM)Theorist Wrote:  
(10-12-2015 06:49 PM)Slowminded Wrote:  There can't be 5 results bro. Try to rap your had around the fact that when you flip a coin there is only 2 possible outcomes. Heads or tails.
It doesn't matter if you filliped one coin or five or a million. Guessing the outcome of any individual coin is 1/2 because their is no 3rd, 4th or 5th possible outcome.

Your chances of guessing the head does not depend on how many coins there are, but on how many options you are guessing from. And there are only 2 (two) Heads or tails.

Have you got a coin there? flip it 5 times and write down the results. Post your results.

Why would I post the results ? I flip the coins , you are guessing , you will be the "another party " as you put it in the OP.

Now, if I ask you to guess what was the result on my , lets say third flip, what are the chances you gonna get it right.
And I have to remind you that in the OP you specified
Quote:asked another party to pick one of the 5 results
You do the math and come up with the answer. Come on, what are the odds of you guessing what I got on my third flip?

. . . ................................ ......................................... . [Image: 2dsmnow.gif] Eat at Joe's
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Slowminded's post
10-12-2015, 07:12 PM
RE: The internet world says this
(10-12-2015 07:09 PM)pablo Wrote:  How is this in any way the same as your original question?


Its a random process, the results of the coin flips are random results, 52 random cards are 52 random results. It is identical in thought.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: