Things to pounder: The plane crash site
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23-11-2011, 12:39 PM
RE: Things to pounder: The plane crash site
Wouldn't buying a house nowhere near a flight path be a better way to decrease the chances of it happening at the spot where your house is?

Instead of buying a house along a flight path where there has been a crash.

Behold the power of the force!
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25-11-2011, 11:51 AM
RE: Things to pounder: The plane crash site
I like this game and I have been thinking about this, since I love to play D&D where we throw a lot of dice, and not just any dice, but a 20 sided dice. Now, to hit number 20 on 20d dice you have a 5% chance. My friend once rolled 3 times 20 in a row. Now, to repeat that row would be pretty impossible, the chances of getting 3 in a row again are astronomical. But look at this now, if you throw, and you get 20 one time, the next time you throw, you still have a 5% chance for getting the 20. And the third time, it's 5% again. Why? Because we can not look at thing as a "in a row" game, every event is an event for itself. So when you throw the dice a second time, the dice does not count what you threw and got on the first throw, "it resets" every time, every time you have the same odds, meaning that you only get different odds if you look at the whole line of throws.

Same thing is with this plane crash site. Plane fell there once. OK. But the rest of the planes and the airspace do not remember that and they do not calculate, so there is exactly the same amount of precentage that can happen again on the same place, it's the same precentage as for the plane to drop anywhere else, as long as that is on its route. Events like this one are viewed separately, they are not connected in a way that one event can manipulate the odds of another event. It could be the case, if the first plane crash had caused the Air Traffic Control to change routes after the crash, but if something as drastic as that didn't happen, then the odds are the same.

Get it?

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25-11-2011, 08:49 PM
RE: Things to pounder: The plane crash site
does anyone else on this forum get the idea that we all derive our enjoyment of some things differently than most people? We are some over thinking critical bastards. And yet I love few things as much as ripping apart flaws...

"I think of myself as an intelligent, sensitive human being with the soul of a clown which always forces me to blow it at the most important moments." -Jim Morrison
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26-11-2011, 11:32 AM
RE: Things to pounder: The plane crash site
Noticing a pattern is rational human behavior. Believing that the pattern will continue, assuming there is a cause and effect, is also rational. But to believe that a pattern will continue where there is no established cause and effect... we call that "superstition".

My house has never been a plane crash site. That doesn't make my house "lucky".

My girlfriend is mad at me. Perhaps I shouldn't have tried cooking a stick in her non-stick pan.
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26-11-2011, 12:02 PM
RE: Things to pounder: The plane crash site
(25-11-2011 08:49 PM)lucradis Wrote:  does anyone else on this forum get the idea that we all derive our enjoyment of some things differently than most people? We are some over thinking critical bastards. And yet I love few things as much as ripping apart flaws...

Speaking of which, I've read through this entire thread and I'm still looking for things to "Pounder." Tongue

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28-11-2011, 06:19 AM
RE: Things to pounder: The plane crash site
Most "normal" people would call us GEEKS, that is why we deal mostly with physics, biology, computer, you know, the geek stuff, because we are geeks. Normal people talk about tits and ass all day long and they pray before dinner.

Pounder this!

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