Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
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26-02-2016, 07:26 AM
Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
...if he wins the nomination.

This, according to a professor at Stony Brook University. Professor Norpoth came up with a model that has correctly determined the outcome of the general election since 1996. He even went back over the last 100+ years and used his model and it was correct 96.1% of the time. His model predicts Trump would defeat Hillary 54% to 45% popular vote. Against Bernie Sanders Trump has a 99% chance to win. This model only works IF Trump wins the nomination. Overall he predicts a 61% chance a republican wins the white house. Sanders loses against any GOP contender. Hillary wins against all other GOP contenders using this Professors theory.

http://nypost.com/2016/02/25/get-ready-f...-accurate/

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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26-02-2016, 07:54 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 07:26 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  ...if he wins the nomination.

This, according to a professor at Stony Brook University. Professor Norpoth came up with a model that has correctly determined the outcome of the general election since 1996. He even went back over the last 100+ years and used his model and it was correct 96.1% of the time. His model predicts Trump would defeat Hillary 54% to 45% popular vote. Against Bernie Sanders Trump has a 99% chance to win. This model only works IF Trump wins the nomination. Overall he predicts a 61% chance a republican wins the white house. Sanders loses against any GOP contender. Hillary wins against all other GOP contenders using this Professors theory.

http://nypost.com/2016/02/25/get-ready-f...-accurate/

Weeping

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26-02-2016, 08:02 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
I'm calling bullshit.
This isn't a "normal" election. Trump is truly unique and not just another republican or democrat. I mean the guy is clinically insane and not the fun kind either.

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26-02-2016, 08:15 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
Trump is a fucking idiot, but at least he's a fucking idiot who wants to repeal Citizens United. That's about all I can really say in his favor Sad

Maybe it's more correct to say that Trump thinks his supporters are idiots, and he's proud of that fact.

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26-02-2016, 08:15 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
Not sure why they don't nor the link they do link to has no formula of the data.

The most it in depth goes to say is basically it's a shoe-in the likelyhood of a party not staying in charge continuing after the 2 year incumbents run is over.

"Allow there to be a spectrum in all that you see" - Neil Degrasse Tyson
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26-02-2016, 08:34 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
Aggregated heads-up polling seems to suggest a different outcome. Now, I will totally admit that heads-up polls aren't the same as actually winning electoral votes on a state-by-state basis in the general election, but we also don't really know how this guy's model works, other than it's "scary accurate".

I'll wait until it's closer to the general election (when the polls have a chance of yielding useful data), and keep an eye on FiveThirtyEight. Nate is pretty good at predicting these things, and he does a good job of explaining why.
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26-02-2016, 08:34 AM (This post was last modified: 26-02-2016 08:39 AM by Chas.)
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 08:15 AM)cactus Wrote:  Trump is a fucking idiot, but at least he's a fucking idiot who wants to repeal Citizens United. That's about all I can really say in his favor Sad

Maybe it's more correct to say that Trump thinks his supporters are idiots, and he's proud of that fact.

Of course Trump supports it - he has money.

The "Citizen's United" decision is the single worst decision by the Supreme Court in our times. It is a mockery of the First Amendment.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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26-02-2016, 08:38 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 08:02 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  I'm calling bullshit.
This isn't a "normal" election. Trump is truly unique and not just another republican or democrat. I mean the guy is clinically insane and not the fun kind either.

I've watched elections in the United States since about 1976, and one thing I've noticed - is in each election there is always a furor about how "this election is the most important one in our lifetime" or how a particular candidate is so unlike any before. Donald Trump is nothing new - he's just a taller version of Ross Perot...,

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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26-02-2016, 09:35 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
There is no way this belligerent, egomaniac, self aggrandizing asshole could work with congress nor the leaders of any other countries, those considered civilized and not so civilized . He would need to learn what the word "negotiation" and perhaps the word "humility" is and that's just not in his vocabulary, which by the way, is on a 4th grade level.

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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26-02-2016, 09:43 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
Trump acts like a 10-year-old.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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