Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
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26-02-2016, 02:04 PM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...



Don't Live each day like it's your last. Live each day like you have 541 days after that one where every choice you make will have lasting implications to you and the world around you. ~ Tim Minchin
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26-02-2016, 02:10 PM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 02:04 PM)Commonsensei Wrote:  


I just saw that yesterday on Facebook. It was really well done. Of course, apart from it being apparent he's being mocked when complaining about the Pope, all of the rest of it could be taken either way. My wife watched it and said it might make his supporters think he's even more cool.
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26-02-2016, 03:47 PM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 07:26 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Professor Norpoth came up with a model that has correctly determined the outcome of the general election since 1996. He even went back over the last 100+ years and used his model and it was correct 96.1% of the time.

So he's got 3 *actual* predictions? 1996, 2004 and 2012. From a choice of 2 candidates? Fuck, he could have flipped a coin and been as accurate. Anyway, where's the proof that he made actual predictions?

Going back over 100 years that's 25 predictions to retrofit his model to. Hardly difficult. Neural network can do that easy. Give it enough noisy input "data" it can fit anything.

This is just bullshit. Minor academic seeks brief fame with fudged maths.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-02-2016, 04:05 PM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
I also don't get the concept of "WHEN" he applied the model. At what points in time. It talks about primary data as part of the subset (and just opposite party rebound for another)

But when did he use that data... was it At THIS point of the cycles? Before super Tuesdays but after 3/4 primaries? Like that would be a random point of time, was it before primary.. that doesn't seem possible from what said, so I would think it would be normally used later in the season.

"Allow there to be a spectrum in all that you see" - Neil Degrasse Tyson
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26-02-2016, 07:02 PM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 01:47 PM)Erxomai Wrote:  I like 100% accuracy over 97%. Drinking Beverage

University with 100% accuracy record predicts Bernie Sanders will become the next president.

This study says what I wanna hear. I am now going to completely disregard all other studies and refer to this one from here on out.

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26-02-2016, 09:50 PM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 07:02 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  
(26-02-2016 01:47 PM)Erxomai Wrote:  I like 100% accuracy over 97%. Drinking Beverage

University with 100% accuracy record predicts Bernie Sanders will become the next president.

This study says what I wanna hear. I am now going to completely disregard all other studies and refer to this one from here on out.

...the new religion...
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27-02-2016, 12:34 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
So Chris Christitie has endorsed Trump.
I wonder how much Trump paid for that endorsement?

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27-02-2016, 12:34 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(26-02-2016 09:50 PM)Fireball Wrote:  
(26-02-2016 07:02 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  This study says what I wanna hear. I am now going to completely disregard all other studies and refer to this one from here on out.

...the new religion...

Complete with schisms, competing sects, priests etc.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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27-02-2016, 06:37 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
(27-02-2016 12:34 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  So Chris Christitie has endorsed Trump.

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27-02-2016, 08:53 AM
RE: Trump has 97% chance to win the presidency...
shame shame shame *ding ding ding*

seriously shame on you America for supporting this this whatever THIS orange haired human orangutan hybrid juju stick thingy is supposed to be
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