U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
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18-03-2016, 09:53 AM
U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
Was listening to talk radio and they were interviewing some election pollster who predicted a republican victory in the general election in November. Basically, he said that voter turnout in swing state primaries can predict which party will win the state in the general election. Through his research over the last 40 years of primary elections, he predicted a republican victory due to the turnout so far in Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida (the four most important swing states). His method is very similar to the Norpoth model that predicts a Trump/Republican landslide in November.

I researched the numbers further on uselectionatlas.org and put this together. I added Pennsylvania as an added bonus since it is a key player. The results are clear. Voter turnout in the primary election/caucus can predict the winner of a swing state in the general election.

Pennsylvania Primary 2000
Democrat turnout 707,990
Republican turnout 650,185
Won by Democrat Al Gore in the general election

Pennsylvania Primary 2008
Democrat turnout 2,341,382
Republican turnout 834,268
Won by Democrat Barrack Obama in the general election

Ohio Primary 2000
Democrat turnout 978,512
Republican turnout 1,397,528
Won by Republican George Bush in general election

Ohio Primary 2008
Democrat turnout 2,315,389
Republican turnout 2,141,541
Won by Democrat Barrack Obama in the general election

Virginia Primary 2008
Democrat turnout 986,203
Republican turnout 489,252
Won by Democrat Barrack Obama in the general election

New Hampshire Primary 2000
Democrat turnout 154,639
Republican turnout 238,206
Won by Republican George Bush in general election

New Hampshire Primary 2008
Democrat turnout 287,556
Republican turnout 239,793
Won by Democrat Barrack Obama in the general election

Florida Primary 2000
Democrat turnout 551,995
Republican 699,503
Won by Republican George Bush in general election

Florida Primary 2008
Democrat turnout 1,698,762
Republican turnout 1,592,782
Won by Democrat Barrack Obama in the general election

------------------------------

2016 so far:

Virgina 2016
Democrat turnout 784,936
Republican turnout 1,025,389

Ohio 2016
Democrat turnout 1,201,950
Republican turnout 1,252,938

New Hampshire 2016
Democrat turnout 253,030
Republican turnout 555,923

Florida 2016
Democrat turnout 1,701,707
Republican turnout 2,352,549

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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18-03-2016, 10:06 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
It may seem that way by your numbers, but this isn't a normal election, Trump should have been drummed out a long time ago. And history also shows that when one party starts flipping out about a front runner they regret, like the GOP is with Trump, that nominee has their asses handed to them, like Mondale and Dukakis.

You better hope Ted wins because Trump is outside the margin behind Hillary in most polls and when averaged out she is still 5 ahead. The downside to Ted being pushed now, which the GOP is doing, is that if he gains momentum it will lead to a contested convention, and that leaves either damaged goods in e general.

You are putting the cart before the horse.

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18-03-2016, 10:19 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
If Trump keeps being the wrecking ball he is, those swing states wont matter. The problem with that party is the more hateful they look, the more they will turn off swing voters. The more they piss of their base, that can potentially override any gains they make in swing voters. I hope both Ted and Trump keep eating each other alive.

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18-03-2016, 10:21 AM (This post was last modified: 18-03-2016 10:25 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:06 AM)Brian37 Wrote:  It may seem that way by your numbers, but this isn't a normal election, Trump should have been drummed out a long time ago. And history also shows that when one party starts flipping out about a front runner they regret, like the GOP is with Trump, that nominee has their asses handed to them, like Mondale and Dukakis.

You better hope Ted wins because Trump is outside the margin behind Hillary in most polls and when averaged out she is still 5 ahead. The downside to Ted being pushed now, which the GOP is doing, is that if he gains momentum it will lead to a contested convention, and that leaves either damaged goods in e general.

You are putting the cart before the horse.

While that is possible, I don't take stock in general election polls, for two reasons.
1. It's far too early. Hillary is most likely to be the dem nominee and everyone knows it. The two front runners haven't even started against each other yet.

2. Head to head national polls mean zero when we use an electoral college. The popular vote winner doesn't always win the whole enchilada.

If Trump wins the nomination, I believe he'll win. The FAR RIGHT religious nut voters might stay home and refuse to vote, similar to how they rejected Mitt Romney. Trump can make up for that by winning independents and Reagan democrats in swing states. If you look at the numbers in Florida, Trump had just about as many votes as Hillary did, and he was competing against 3 times as many candidates and a candidate from that state (Rubio). Florida is huge. Every president except one in the last 60 years has won Florida (Clinton won without Florida in 1992, but only because Ross Perot split the vote).

Trump appears to be very polarizing at the moment, but once he gets the nomination (IF) and selects a solid VP, things settle down, surrounds himself with people that can bring the party back together I think he has a solid shot.

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18-03-2016, 10:31 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(18-03-2016 10:06 AM)Brian37 Wrote:  It may seem that way by your numbers, but this isn't a normal election, Trump should have been drummed out a long time ago. And history also shows that when one party starts flipping out about a front runner they regret, like the GOP is with Trump, that nominee has their asses handed to them, like Mondale and Dukakis.

You better hope Ted wins because Trump is outside the margin behind Hillary in most polls and when averaged out she is still 5 ahead. The downside to Ted being pushed now, which the GOP is doing, is that if he gains momentum it will lead to a contested convention, and that leaves either damaged goods in e general.

You are putting the cart before the horse.

While that is possible, I don't take stock in general election polls, for two reasons.
1. It's far too early. Hillary is most likely to be the dem nominee and everyone knows it. The two front runners haven't even started against each other yet.

2. Head to head national polls mean zero when we use an electoral college. The popular vote winner doesn't always win the whole enchilada.

If Trump wins the nomination, I believe he'll win. The FAR RIGHT religious nut voters might stay home and refuse to vote, similar to how they rejected Mitt Romney. Trump can make up for that by winning independents and Reagan democrats in swing states. If you look at the numbers in Florida, Trump had just about as many votes as Hillary did, and he was competing against 3 times as many candidates and a candidate from that state (Rubio). Florida is huge. Every president except one in the last 60 years has won Florida (Clinton won without Florida in 1992, but only because Ross Perot split the vote).

Trump appears to be very polarizing at the moment, but once he gets the nomination (IF) and selects a solid VP, things settle down, surrounds himself with people that can bring the party back together I think he has a solid shot.

No he will not win. He will go down in flames. He is damaged goods, and if he gets the nomination the left will have a field day with his xenophobia. Again, you are quoting numbers with winners who were NOT bat shit over the top demagogues. Trump is. Not even Bush came close to his bullshit when he ran.

This is not a normal election.

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18-03-2016, 10:36 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
It is not a good sign when those in your own party are agreeing with the left that the level of vitriol is unacceptable. No matter if he wins the primary and "tones it down" those words will be used against him in the primary and the GOP knows this.

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18-03-2016, 10:39 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The results are clear.

Dude do you even statistic? Your eyeballed observations of a collection of data points do not count as "results". Come back to me after you've done a paired t-test. And make sure you report the p-value. It's always fun to watch the statistically illiterate purport "the results are clear". Please continue.

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18-03-2016, 10:43 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
Also, the stats you gave for primaries never reflect the actual parties voting when they aren't closed primaries. Take Ohio this year for instance. A ton of Dems declared Rep for this primary so they could vote AGAINST Trump and for Kasich. These numbers are meaningless. Trump can't win the general election, the math isn't there and too many people are divided on the GOP side.

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18-03-2016, 10:48 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:39 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(18-03-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The results are clear.

Dude do you even statistic? Your eyeballed observations of a collection of data points do not count as "results". Come back to me after you've done a paired t-test. And make sure you report the p-value. It's always fun to watch the statistically illiterate purport "the results are clear". Please continue.

Mumbo jumbo. I, like the polster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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18-03-2016, 10:50 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
Mien Drumpf is even bullying his own party saying their will be riots in the streets if he does not get the nomination. Is that who we want as a president? Someone who bullies even his own party? His rhetoric is TOXIC to the idea of peaceful transfer of power.

He has also flip flopped about supporting the nominee if he does not win. That is not someone we should trust to the most important office in the country. The fear the GOP sold to set him up was bad enough, but he has gone way beyond fear and added demagoguery and scapegoating.

He is a bully and a selfish opportunist. The only thing Trump cares about is Trump. This is a game to him and he doesn't care who gets hurt.

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