U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
18-03-2016, 11:12 AM (This post was last modified: 18-03-2016 11:17 AM by GirlyMan.)
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:48 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(18-03-2016 10:39 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Dude do you even statistic?

Mumbo jumbo. I, like the polster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

So because some other idiot who don't statistic eyeballed some raw data you figured you could too. Eyeballing is not a fucking model. Morons chasing idiots. I normalized the data and ran a paired t-test just now. There is no statistically significant difference in the distributions. I'll let you figure out what that means.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 3 users Like GirlyMan's post
18-03-2016, 11:21 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 11:12 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(18-03-2016 10:48 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Mumbo jumbo. I, like the polster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

So because some other idiot who don't statistic eyeballed some raw data you figured you could too. Eyeballing is not a fucking model. Morons chasing idiots. I normalized the data and ran a paired t-test just now. There is no statistically significant difference in the distributions. I'll let you figure out what that means.

When republicans win those 4 states in November I'll be back to this thread to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
[Image: 25397spaceballs.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
18-03-2016, 11:24 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  ...
predicted a republican victory in the general election in November.
...

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet

Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
18-03-2016, 09:16 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Was listening to talk radio and they were interviewing some election pollster who predicted a republican victory in the general election in November.

(18-03-2016 10:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  While that is possible, I don't take stock in general election polls, for two reasons.

Confirmation bias and ignorance.

Quote:1. It's far too early. Hillary is most likely to be the dem nominee and everyone knows it. The two front runners haven't even started against each other yet.

You're right, it's far too early. Yet you know who's going to win because of some guy on talk radio. Let's ask a more reliable source:

[Image: hqdefault.jpg]

Quote:2. Head to head national polls mean zero when we use an electoral college. The popular vote winner doesn't always win the whole enchilada.

Check the site that you linked. It shows a Democrat win in both the popular vote and Electoral College.

---
Flesh and blood of a dead star, slain in the apocalypse of supernova, resurrected by four billion years of continuous autocatalytic reaction and crowned with the emergent property of sentience in the dream that the universe might one day understand itself.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
18-03-2016, 10:08 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 11:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  When republicans win those 4 states in November I'll be back to this thread to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo.

Are you so dim as to not realize how dim that statement is?

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
18-03-2016, 10:29 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
I’m sure Mr. Helmet intended these statements to inspire confidence in the veracity of his method.

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the polster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When Republicans win those 4 states in November I'll be back to this thread to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.


Just for fun let’s have some other people saying them to inspire confidence:

Roger Cornbluth, Head of Nuclear Development Oversight, responding to questions about his basis for approving construction of a nuclear plant in central Manhattan with a modified reactor without statistical review:

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the control room technician being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When this plant has operated trouble-free across its 50 year life I'll be back to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.



Hank Wentworth, starting pitcher for the Boise Boilermakers, explaining why his prediction for his next game lacks basic statistical review:

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the sportscaster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When my next game is a no-hitter I'll be back to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.



Gerard Gilotti MD, Chief Neurosurgeon at Midtown Hospital, explaining to his patient why he didn’t bother making any statistical review of the new technique he’ll be using during brain surgery:

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the nurse being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When you wake up alive and cured in recovery I'll be back to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.



Funny, I didn’t feel reassured by any of that, but maybe that was just me.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 5 users Like Airportkid's post
18-03-2016, 10:43 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
New Hampshire is a swing state? Since when?

Swing states have a large number of EC votes and a closely-split polity. I don't think NH has either.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
18-03-2016, 10:43 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
It doesn't matter who wins. Robots will take over within 20 years.

'Murican Canadian
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
18-03-2016, 10:48 PM (This post was last modified: 18-03-2016 11:01 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:29 PM)Airportkid Wrote:  I’m sure Mr. Helmet intended these statements to inspire confidence in the veracity of his method.

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the polster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When Republicans win those 4 states in November I'll be back to this thread to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.


Just for fun let’s have some other people saying them to inspire confidence:

Roger Cornbluth, Head of Nuclear Development Oversight, responding to questions about his basis for approving construction of a nuclear plant in central Manhattan with a modified reactor without statistical review:

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the control room technician being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When this plant has operated trouble-free across its 50 year life I'll be back to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.



Hank Wentworth, starting pitcher for the Boise Boilermakers, explaining why his prediction for his next game lacks basic statistical review:

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the sportscaster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When my next game is a no-hitter I'll be back to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.



Gerard Gilotti MD, Chief Neurosurgeon at Midtown Hospital, explaining to his patient why he didn’t bother making any statistical review of the new technique he’ll be using during brain surgery:

“Mumbo jumbo. I, like the nurse being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

“When you wake up alive and cured in recovery I'll be back to point out the superiority of my raw numbers over statistical mumbo jumbo”.



Funny, I didn’t feel reassured by any of that, but maybe that was just me.

whose.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like GirlyMan's post
18-03-2016, 10:53 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:48 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Mumbo jumbo. I, like the polster being interviewed I heard on the radio (and professor Norpoth, who's model is 100% accurate since 1992) simply looked at raw numbers. I'm no mathematician. P-value blah blah blah.

[Image: 2m2f03a.jpg]

I got yer blahblahblah right here. Plug your ears all you want, appeal to some media "authority" all you want, but if you can't really address the objections at all, and resort to "blah blah blah", why in the world should I think your opinion is worth two shits rubbed together?

Forgive my bluntness, but your reply is the reply of someone who hasn't thought things through.

Jesus, dude, rise to the occasion and answer the question properly. And if you cannot do that much (which seems to be the case), then man up and admit that you're ignorant of those finer points.

Typical Trumpeter -- lotsa volume, little content.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: