U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
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18-03-2016, 11:08 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:48 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  whose.
Missed that. Also should've spelled it newkuler but who's checking? Tongue
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18-03-2016, 11:15 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 11:08 PM)Airportkid Wrote:  
(18-03-2016 10:48 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  whose.
Missed that. Also should've spelled it newkuler but who's checking? Tongue

I'm working graveyard shift. Vosur should be up soon.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
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19-03-2016, 12:09 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:50 AM)Brian37 Wrote:  Mien Drumpf is even bullying his own party saying their will be riots in the streets if he does not get the nomination. Is that who we want as a president? Someone who bullies even his own party? His rhetoric is TOXIC to the idea of peaceful transfer of power.

He has also flip flopped about supporting the nominee if he does not win. That is not someone we should trust to the most important office in the country. The fear the GOP sold to set him up was bad enough, but he has gone way beyond fear and added demagoguery and scapegoating.

He is a bully and a selfish opportunist. The only thing Trump cares about is Trump. This is a game to him and he doesn't care who gets hurt.

But, he's such a great businessman. Facepalm
Oh wait. No he isn't.
With that mouth of his, he couldn't work for ANY Fortune 500 company.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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21-03-2016, 11:58 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Was listening to talk radio and they were interviewing some election pollster who predicted a republican victory in the general election in November. Basically, he said that voter turnout in swing state primaries can predict which party will win the state in the general election.

Fivethirtyeight: Primary turnout means nothing for the general election

It's quite possible that this is just a case of people being good at finding patterns where there aren't necessarily any. You're effectively looking at something like ten data points.
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21-03-2016, 12:13 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(21-03-2016 11:58 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  
(18-03-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Was listening to talk radio and they were interviewing some election pollster who predicted a republican victory in the general election in November. Basically, he said that voter turnout in swing state primaries can predict which party will win the state in the general election.

Fivethirtyeight: Primary turnout means nothing for the general election

Bah, Lord Dull Helmet don't need no damn statistics. Especially from a website run by a world renowned gay Jewish atheist statistician.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
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21-03-2016, 09:19 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(21-03-2016 11:58 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  
(18-03-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Was listening to talk radio and they were interviewing some election pollster who predicted a republican victory in the general election in November. Basically, he said that voter turnout in swing state primaries can predict which party will win the state in the general election.

Fivethirtyeight: Primary turnout means nothing for the general election

It's quite possible that this is just a case of people being good at finding patterns where there aren't necessarily any. You're effectively looking at something like ten data points.

That article doesn't go state by state. It uses a tally of all turnout for the entire country. But even using that model, the higher primary turnout predicted the winner of the electoral college 4 out of 6 times. 67% of the time, the higher turnout party wins the general election.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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22-03-2016, 05:38 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
Interesting statistics. How about all you election predictors make this thread interesting for the rest of us, and start putting some money on it?
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22-03-2016, 05:38 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(21-03-2016 09:19 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  That article doesn't go state by state. It uses a tally of all turnout for the entire country. But even using that model, the higher primary turnout predicted the winner of the electoral college 4 out of 6 times. 67% of the time, the higher turnout party wins the general election.

I understand that it isn't state by state, but like I said earlier, you're looking at something like ten data points. It's really, really easy to retroactively look at results of things and try to find anything that matches up. Just because you find something that happened to match up 100% of the time over ten data points doesn't mean that it has any predictive qualities. This is basically the same thinking behind the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Creating your prediction model after looking at all of the data is likely to yield dubious results.

Humans are great at finding patterns, even where there are none.
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23-03-2016, 09:10 PM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(18-03-2016 10:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  If Trump wins the nomination, I believe he'll win. The FAR RIGHT religious nut voters might stay home and refuse to vote, similar to how they rejected Mitt Romney. Trump can make up for that by winning independents and Reagan democrats in swing states.
Let him offend Cruz(and his supporters including me) and all people around him and I am definitely going to stay home.
I hate Trump's style. I just hate it. I also don't trust him. He is another member of Washington Cartel.
I think Hillary will be our next president. Republican house is too divided: Trampiens, Conservatives and Washington Cartel. We hate each other.

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24-03-2016, 06:27 AM
RE: U.S. Election 2016 - swing state voter turnout
(23-03-2016 09:10 PM)Alla Wrote:  Let him offend Cruz(and his supporters including me) and all people around him and I am definitely going to stay home.

I feel for you. Granted, I'm far enough to the left of you that it is hard for me to pick a GOP candidate that I'd want to vote for, but in this primary, I can't really see much of anything redeeming in any of them. I'd hate to have to make that choice in the primary.
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