U.S. Midterm Elections
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15-09-2018, 08:32 AM
U.S. Midterm Elections
The midterm elections are about a month and a half away. Historically, the presidents party loses about 20 house seats and 4 senate seats. Most experts believe the house will flip to democrat control and the Senate will stay republican (due to an unusual senate election cycle where only 6 republicans are up for re-election in mostly safe seats).

Let's take a look at some of the numbers. In the national generic ballot, democrats are up about 9 points (according to the average of polls on 538). This could mean that democrats are poised to pick up 30+ seats. However some number crunchers are warning that republicans could actually keep the house, because republicans are leading (or close) in the individual district polls. Harry Enten of 538 has an article out on CNN today that discusses that point. It's possible that Democrats win big in their liberal strongholds but lose by small margins in other districts, resulting in republicans maintaining control of the house, even by a small number of Representatives.

On the money side, democrat candidates are averaging $898,000 per candidate, and republicans are averaging $925,000 per candidate. This includes all PAC money. At the party level, the republican national committee has raised a whopping $227,000,000, while the democrat national committee has raised significantly less, $117,000,000. Overall, republicans have raised $671,364,175 this election cycle, compared to $552,365,906 for democrats (all numbers from opensecrets.org).

The media makes it seem like there for sure will be a "blue wave" this election cycle. Many experts are predicting this as well. No doubt democrats are highly motivated against Trump. I guess we'll see how motivated Trump's base is. Will they show up in droves to prevent his impeachment? Will democrats suffer another low turnout midterm? Going to be a nail biter for sure.

Feel free to post updates and new polls etc until election day, as well as your predictions.

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15-09-2018, 08:53 AM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
Predictions -

We will hear " this is the most important election we will have in our lifetime" a mind numbing number of times.


And regardless of outcome - the sun will still rise in the East, rain will still fall to the ground ( rather than the other way around), and politicians will still be greedy, power hungry fucks, only surpassed in their obsessions by clergy.




Drinking Beverage

....

I'm a double atheist. I don't believe in your god or your politician.
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15-09-2018, 08:54 AM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
(15-09-2018 08:32 AM)Grim Wrote:  Feel free to post updates and new polls etc until election day, as well as your predictions.

Why, thank you, dear Sir! Tongue

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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15-09-2018, 10:17 AM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
(15-09-2018 08:32 AM)Grim Wrote:  I guess we'll see how motivated Trump's base is. Will they show up in droves to prevent his impeachment?

Also from fivethirtyeight: Republicans are talking about impeachment way more than Democrats. It seems to largely be a fear tactic designed to drive support for Trump. While it's possible Democrats are distancing themselves from a controversial topic ahead of the elections, they aren't talking about it nearly as much as Trump is. Even if the Democrats take the Senate (possible, but not likely), they'd need something like 16 Republican Senators to vote to remove Trump from office for impeachment to be anything other than symbolic.
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15-09-2018, 11:44 AM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
I'm not keeping up with any nuts and bolts details of close races in House or Senate, but I predict slight uptick in Dems in the House and Senate stays close to same. I predict Mueller will either leak or release a hot potato or two in the days before the election.

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15-09-2018, 02:46 PM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
(15-09-2018 11:44 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:  I predict Mueller will either leak or release a hot potato or two in the days before the election.

Why? He's so far run a very tight operation. Are you suggesting this is just a long con?
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15-09-2018, 03:50 PM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
(15-09-2018 11:44 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:  I'm not keeping up with any nuts and bolts details of close races in House or Senate, but I predict slight uptick in Dems in the House and Senate stays close to same. I predict Mueller will either leak or release a hot potato or two in the days before the election.

I disagree. His indictments, leaks, etc seem to show a pattern of riposte -- I.e., Trump starts running his mouth again about shutting the investigation down -- boom! -- another indictment or arrest drops.

Seems to me Mueller has a clear understanding that he should play defense even if he's got bombs to drop, and is saving his ammo as much as possible.

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15-09-2018, 04:02 PM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
(15-09-2018 03:50 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  
(15-09-2018 11:44 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:  I'm not keeping up with any nuts and bolts details of close races in House or Senate, but I predict slight uptick in Dems in the House and Senate stays close to same. I predict Mueller will either leak or release a hot potato or two in the days before the election.

I disagree. His indictments, leaks, etc seem to show a pattern of riposte -- I.e., Trump starts running his mouth again about shutting the investigation down -- boom! -- another indictment or arrest drops.

Seems to me Mueller has a clear understanding that he should play defense even if he's got bombs to drop, and is saving his ammo as much as possible.

You're making my point for me Thump. It's not Mueller's job to play politics, riposte here and throw something out there "when Trump starts running his mouth"- hey right before Trump goes to Russia, watch him suck on these indictments of 15 Russians! I'll show him who's boss lolz!

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15-09-2018, 04:08 PM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
(15-09-2018 02:46 PM)RobbyPants Wrote:  
(15-09-2018 11:44 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:  I predict Mueller will either leak or release a hot potato or two in the days before the election.

Why? He's so far run a very tight operation. Are you suggesting this is just a long con?

Robby I'm going to try to find a post or two I already made giving my opinion on this and will link later. It would be more efficient, and it has a few (a bunch? many?) well-reasoned rebuttals. "Long con" is an exaggeration of my thoughts but I do think this is far from virtuous good guys versus dastardly black hatted bad guys. This is a big boy partisan gunfight, and I do think there is great pressure for Mueller to come up with something and I don't doubt fabrication and manipulation are on the table to make sure that something comes up.

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15-09-2018, 06:47 PM
RE: U.S. Midterm Elections
(15-09-2018 04:08 PM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:  This is a big boy partisan gunfight, and I do think there is great pressure for Mueller to come up with something and I don't doubt fabrication and manipulation are on the table to make sure that something comes up.

When you say “partisan”, do you mean establishment vs Trump Republicans?
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