U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
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14-11-2015, 11:50 PM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
Yes, they do. They have a 32.5% chance of winning.
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15-11-2015, 07:09 AM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
I would say that the more terrorist attacks we have in western countries boosts the chances a Republican gets elected. Who honestly trusts any of the Democrat candidates to get rid of these ISIS fucks? Maybe Jim Webb but he dropped out.

ISIS has people freaked out. Gun sales have set a record six months in a row. 1,976,759 gun background checks through the FBI database just in October. Probably more in November. My wife and I have each bought a gun in the last week. My local gun store had over 400 calls to sign up for the concealed carry class yesterday after the Paris attack. And that was only by 2:00 when I went in to pick up some ammo.

More terrorist attacks definitely work in favor of republicans winning elections. A Gallup poll from September showed more Americans trust republicans (55%) to handle terrorism than democrats (32%).

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15-11-2015, 08:48 AM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
(13-11-2015 12:28 PM)Adrianime Wrote:  I don't really care if you consider yourself republican or not (nor do I especially care if you hold the current two-party system in contempt), but do you honestly think the front runners have a chance?

If Trump and Carson are leading the polls, and they are both absolute jokes, I just don't see republicans as even having a shot this next election. What do you think?

Probably not if any of the two current fronts runners win, they might stand a chance with another candidate like Rubio. I don't think Hillary is likable enough to bank on a win, with a more viable contender. And I think the trend in American voting patterns is to switch it up a bit every so often, but weak contenders like Trump and Carson are unlikely to do the trick.

I also really don't think Carson or Trump are gonna survive after the pool starts shrinking, among republican candidates. But you never know.

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15-11-2015, 09:11 AM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
(13-11-2015 12:28 PM)Adrianime Wrote:  I don't really care if you consider yourself republican or not (nor do I especially care if you hold the current two-party system in contempt), but do you honestly think the front runners have a chance?

If Trump and Carson are leading the polls, and they are both absolute jokes, I just don't see republicans as even having a shot this next election. What do you think?

Yes they have a good chance. A large percentage of US voters are going to vote republican no matter who they nominate. I also feel obligated to point out that winning the popular vote is not required to win the election.

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15-11-2015, 05:48 PM (This post was last modified: 15-11-2015 06:00 PM by Tartarus Sauce.)
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
Yes they do have a chance, there's quite a bit that could happen in the next year. Republicans will benefit if ISIS and terrorist attacks continue to hold prominence in the news cycle or if the economy takes a sudden downturn. However, if the topic of national security doesn't become more prominent come election time and the economy remains steady, the Democrats have the advantage. The major problem with the GOP this year is their crowded field of candidates and the disruption of outsiders like Donald Trump and Ben Carson tapping into the anti-establishment frustrations of an increasingly conservative and divided GOP electorate. Most of their candidates either pander too much to their far-right base and alienate the crucial independent swing voters in the center (Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee) or could actually pull clout with the independents and centrists but are disliked by the right wing of their voting base (Bush, Kasich, Christie). Then there are the outsiders, who are....well simply put they might be doing well now, but unorthodox candidates usually do well in the polls this early in the election cycle before more rationally committed voters start tuning in once the primaries open up. Ben Carson and Donald Trump won't be able to stand up to the scrutiny of a voter base that is actually VOTING for them once voting time comes around, and even if they passed the primaries by some miracle, they would hold pathetic sway over the critical swing voters necessary to win a general election.

Rubio is the only one that could check all the boxes necessary to stand a chance against Clinton. He has conservative bona fides, but also has appeal to the establishment and moderate sections of his party, as well as potential positives that could entice independent swing voters. He could still fall through the floor though considering how volatile the GOP field and constituency is at the moment, and if he does, the GOP can kiss their presidential aspirations goodbye this cycle. Anybody other than Rubio will lose against Hillary, either because the critical conservatives making up the majority of their voter base won't support them, or a candidate that is completely unappealing to the political center will head the Republican charge for the White House and people come out in droves to vote for Hillary (both from the Democratic base, swing voters, and protest votes).

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15-11-2015, 06:37 PM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
(15-11-2015 05:48 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  Yes they do have a chance, there's quite a bit that could happen in the next year. Republicans will benefit if ISIS and terrorist attacks continue to hold prominence in the news cycle or if the economy takes a sudden downturn. However, if the topic of national security doesn't become more prominent come election time and the economy remains steady, the Democrats have the advantage. The major problem with the GOP this year is their crowded field of candidates and the disruption of outsiders like Donald Trump and Ben Carson tapping into the anti-establishment frustrations of an increasingly conservative and divided GOP electorate. Most of their candidates either pander too much to their far-right base and alienate the crucial independent swing voters in the center (Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee) or could actually pull clout with the independents and centrists but are disliked by the right wing of their voting base (Bush, Kasich, Christie). Then there are the outsiders, who are....well simply put they might be doing well now, but unorthodox candidates usually do well in the polls this early in the election cycle before more rationally committed voters start tuning in once the primaries open up. Ben Carson and Donald Trump won't be able to stand up to the scrutiny of a voter base that is actually VOTING for them once voting time comes around, and even if they passed the primaries by some miracle, they would hold pathetic sway over the critical swing voters necessary to win a general election.

Rubio is the only one that could check all the boxes necessary to stand a chance against Clinton. He has conservative bona fides, but also has appeal to the establishment and moderate sections of his party, as well as potential positives that could entice independent swing voters. He could still fall through the floor though considering how volatile the GOP field and constituency is at the moment, and if he does, the GOP can kiss their presidential aspirations goodbye this cycle. Anybody other than Rubio will lose against Hillary, either because the critical conservatives making up the majority of their voter base won't support them, or a candidate that is completely unappealing to the political center will head the Republican charge for the White House and people come out in droves to vote for Hillary (both from the Democratic base, swing voters, and protest votes).

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16-11-2015, 07:16 AM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
(15-11-2015 05:48 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  Yes they do have a chance, there's quite a bit that could happen in the next year. Republicans will benefit if ISIS and terrorist attacks continue to hold prominence in the news cycle or if the economy takes a sudden downturn. However, if the topic of national security doesn't become more prominent come election time and the economy remains steady, the Democrats have the advantage. The major problem with the GOP this year is their crowded field of candidates and the disruption of outsiders like Donald Trump and Ben Carson tapping into the anti-establishment frustrations of an increasingly conservative and divided GOP electorate. Most of their candidates either pander too much to their far-right base and alienate the crucial independent swing voters in the center (Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee) or could actually pull clout with the independents and centrists but are disliked by the right wing of their voting base (Bush, Kasich, Christie). Then there are the outsiders, who are....well simply put they might be doing well now, but unorthodox candidates usually do well in the polls this early in the election cycle before more rationally committed voters start tuning in once the primaries open up. Ben Carson and Donald Trump won't be able to stand up to the scrutiny of a voter base that is actually VOTING for them once voting time comes around, and even if they passed the primaries by some miracle, they would hold pathetic sway over the critical swing voters necessary to win a general election.

Rubio is the only one that could check all the boxes necessary to stand a chance against Clinton. He has conservative bona fides, but also has appeal to the establishment and moderate sections of his party, as well as potential positives that could entice independent swing voters. He could still fall through the floor though considering how volatile the GOP field and constituency is at the moment, and if he does, the GOP can kiss their presidential aspirations goodbye this cycle. Anybody other than Rubio will lose against Hillary, either because the critical conservatives making up the majority of their voter base won't support them, or a candidate that is completely unappealing to the political center will head the Republican charge for the White House and people come out in droves to vote for Hillary (both from the Democratic base, swing voters, and protest votes).

I agree with most of what you wrote, however I believe you're wrong about Trump or Carson, more so Trump. The latest poll has him at 42% in a very crowded field. Your assertion that more people will be paying attention later closer to the primary will have limited affect. Most republicans are already paying attention. Look at the numbers for the republican debates. Record numbers.

Do you know why establishment candidates are doing so poorly? The answer is that 75-85% of republican voters are AGAINST amnesty. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are big-time supporters of amnesty. Rubio co-authored an amnesty bill. All of the republican candidates except Trump and Cruz have supported amnesty at some point.

Trump and Cruz are playing nice. They're the only two that haven't attacked each other. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Trump/Cruz ticket. Terrorism and Immigration are linked, and these two are the only ones saying what the majority of republican voters want to hear.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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17-11-2015, 12:46 PM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
Unfortunately, the American electorate is capable of incredible decisions. If they could elect Bush Jr., they are capable of electing other clowns.
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21-11-2015, 02:02 PM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
Trump and Carson cannot win in the general election because they both rate below 30% with African Americans and below 15% with Hispanics. Democrats may need to hold their nose when they vote, but Hillary carries the election powered by the women's vote. Furthermore, very few Americans want a one party executive and legislative, be it Republican or Democrat. Remember the last disaster the all Republican Government left the American people.
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21-11-2015, 02:32 PM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
(21-11-2015 02:02 PM)oneofshibumi Wrote:  Trump and Carson cannot win in the general election because they both rate below 30% with African Americans and below 15% with Hispanics. Democrats may need to hold their nose when they vote, but Hillary carries the election powered by the women's vote. Furthermore, very few Americans want a one party executive and legislative, be it Republican or Democrat. Remember the last disaster the all Republican Government left the American people.

I've seen these mathematical equations around the internet that the GOP cannot win unless they somehow get 68% of the white vote (probably impossible) or they somehow get 40% of the Hispanic vote as well as do better than recent GOP candidates with the black vote. Garnering 40% of the Hispanic vote would be much easier than getting 2/3 of white voters. I think Trump can do a little of all three, especially if terrorism is a hot topic leading up to the election. All he needs to do is pick a Hispanic as VP. He'll get half or more of the white vote, as most GOP candidates do. With no Obama around he'll pick up more black voters than Romney or McCain had. Trump is actually liked by most black people I know. And with a Hispanic Vice President on the ticket he'll get 35% or more of the Hispanic vote, and gain other minority voters in the process. Throw in the possibility that conservatives are planning to show up in record numbers in the next election and the GOP could sail into a smooth easy win. It's not over until its over. There's nobody exciting on the Democrat side to bring out the voters the way Obama did.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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