U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
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21-11-2015, 03:14 PM
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
(21-11-2015 02:32 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(21-11-2015 02:02 PM)oneofshibumi Wrote:  Trump and Carson cannot win in the general election because they both rate below 30% with African Americans and below 15% with Hispanics. Democrats may need to hold their nose when they vote, but Hillary carries the election powered by the women's vote. Furthermore, very few Americans want a one party executive and legislative, be it Republican or Democrat. Remember the last disaster the all Republican Government left the American people.

I've seen these mathematical equations around the internet that the GOP cannot win unless they somehow get 68% of the white vote (probably impossible) or they somehow get 40% of the Hispanic vote as well as do better than recent GOP candidates with the black vote. Garnering 40% of the Hispanic vote would be much easier than getting 2/3 of white voters. I think Trump can do a little of all three, especially if terrorism is a hot topic leading up to the election. All he needs to do is pick a Hispanic as VP. He'll get half or more of the white vote, as most GOP candidates do. With no Obama around he'll pick up more black voters than Romney or McCain had. Trump is actually liked by most black people I know. And with a Hispanic Vice President on the ticket he'll get 35% or more of the Hispanic vote, and gain other minority voters in the process. Throw in the possibility that conservatives are planning to show up in record numbers in the next election and the GOP could sail into a smooth easy win. It's not over until its over. There's nobody exciting on the Democrat side to bring out the voters the way Obama did.

Except for that whole Bernie Sanders having massive excitement brought out in younger aged voters especially, but even if he does succumb to Hilary, while many don't like her it's not like there isn't a woman president push into the folds. It's the sole reason why most of the time Fiorina is pointing out she is a woman, and constantly makes attacks at Hiliary more than any of the actual GOP candidates. It's a point to draw that crowd to her in so that she can be the motivator of votes.

It's also like you forget that whole era not long ago when dems were in power in the congress vote, because they were motivated by anti-bush mentalities. If it's Jeb/Trump/Carson winning the GOP, the anti-those bozo's crowd will be huge. If it's Rubio/Fiorina that won't work so well, those are the couple of candidates that won't motivate people to simply vote against them, because they couldn't possibly stand them.

"Allow there to be a spectrum in all that you see" - Neil Degrasse Tyson
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21-11-2015, 03:28 PM (This post was last modified: 21-11-2015 03:39 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: U.S. Pres: Do republicans have a chance?
(21-11-2015 03:14 PM)ClydeLee Wrote:  
(21-11-2015 02:32 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I've seen these mathematical equations around the internet that the GOP cannot win unless they somehow get 68% of the white vote (probably impossible) or they somehow get 40% of the Hispanic vote as well as do better than recent GOP candidates with the black vote. Garnering 40% of the Hispanic vote would be much easier than getting 2/3 of white voters. I think Trump can do a little of all three, especially if terrorism is a hot topic leading up to the election. All he needs to do is pick a Hispanic as VP. He'll get half or more of the white vote, as most GOP candidates do. With no Obama around he'll pick up more black voters than Romney or McCain had. Trump is actually liked by most black people I know. And with a Hispanic Vice President on the ticket he'll get 35% or more of the Hispanic vote, and gain other minority voters in the process. Throw in the possibility that conservatives are planning to show up in record numbers in the next election and the GOP could sail into a smooth easy win. It's not over until its over. There's nobody exciting on the Democrat side to bring out the voters the way Obama did.

Except for that whole Bernie Sanders having massive excitement brought out in younger aged voters especially, but even if he does succumb to Hilary, while many don't like her it's not like there isn't a woman president push into the folds. It's the sole reason why most of the time Fiorina is pointing out she is a woman, and constantly makes attacks at Hiliary more than any of the actual GOP candidates. It's a point to draw that crowd to her in so that she can be the motivator of votes.

It's also like you forget that whole era not long ago when dems were in power in the congress vote, because they were motivated by anti-bush mentalities. If it's Jeb/Trump/Carson winning the GOP, the anti-those bozo's crowd will be huge. If it's Rubio/Fiorina that won't work so well, those are the couple of candidates that won't motivate people to simply vote against them, because they couldn't possibly stand them.

I don't necessarily think either side will have it easy. Dems haven't had back to back Democrat presidents in over 50 years or something like that. Obama's approval ratings are bad. That historically dooms the incumbent party. I've seen polls for Hillary that show as much as 65% of white males find her unfavorable. That makes up for the extra female vote she might gain and then some.

And the biggest hurdle will be swing states. Only one president in recent history failed to win Florida. Hillary needs Florida. I don't think she can win there. Obama won Florida in 2012 by only 1% and that was with major black turnout.

But it's like the Super Bowl. There is no paper champion. The game must still be played.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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