UFO Disclosure
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10-09-2015, 03:11 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:05 PM)Free Wrote:  If the object was real, I can break it down like this:

Was it imagination? 1%
Was it a lie? 1%
Was it a hoax? 1%
Was it mass hallucination? 1%
Was it man-made? 40%
Was it alien? 20%
Was it various other? 36%?

You leave out the important category of "was it a bunch of people not really being particularly knowledgeable about the behavior of modern aircraft and other assorted phenomena, including but not limited to unusual weather patterns, and also not being particularly skilled observers or particularly rational people to begin with, and possessing memories that were not infallible or unbiased, and so coming to the wrong conclusion entirely?".

As this is where the vast majority of cases fall, this oversight is more than a little problematic.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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10-09-2015, 03:13 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:05 PM)Free Wrote:  At the end of the day I conclude that the aviation experts witnessed an unknown aircraft that performed far beyond anything known to them.

Aaaand... therefore aliens. Why not GOD??? Why not Pixies? Maybe Pixies are really aliens? Maybe aliens are really God? The possibilities are endless. Endleeeeeessssssssss!!!11!

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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10-09-2015, 03:16 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:13 PM)morondog Wrote:  
(10-09-2015 03:05 PM)Free Wrote:  At the end of the day I conclude that the aviation experts witnessed an unknown aircraft that performed far beyond anything known to them.

Aaaand... therefore aliens. Why not GOD??? Why not Pixies? Maybe Pixies are really aliens? Maybe aliens are really God? The possibilities are endless. Endleeeeeessssssssss!!!11!

Did I say that I concluded that it was aliens?

Hmmm?

Can you guess which logical fallacy you are committing here?

[Image: strawman.png]

Big Grin

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10-09-2015, 03:18 PM (This post was last modified: 10-09-2015 03:26 PM by morondog.)
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:16 PM)Free Wrote:  
(10-09-2015 03:13 PM)morondog Wrote:  Aaaand... therefore aliens. Why not GOD??? Why not Pixies? Maybe Pixies are really aliens? Maybe aliens are really God? The possibilities are endless. Endleeeeeessssssssss!!!11!

Did I say that I concluded that it was aliens?

Hmmm?

Can you guess which logical fallacy you are committing here?

Big Grin

You feel like responding to my question regarding the probability you'd assign to it being aliens?

It's no fallacy. You've clearly implied that you think that to dismiss the idea that it's aliens is illogical.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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10-09-2015, 03:18 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
Where did you get your %'s?
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10-09-2015, 03:28 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:18 PM)Hobbitgirl Wrote:  Where did you get your %'s?

By eliminating other postulations as not being possible, or reducing other possibilities for being extremely unlikely.

A hoax, over active imaginations, lies, and mass hallucinations are far less likely than an alien ship for the reasons I specified.

Man-made is the most likely possibility.

Other variables include weather phenomenon, illusions created by lighting effects, and other yet unknown variables.

The 20% for an alien possibility is based directly on the available evidence, and is actually the highest rating I ever given to the possibility of alien life visiting earth. Most others i have viewed are dismissed completely, but this one deserves recognition, especially when it's fully investigated.

The only other good one similar to this is Rendelsham because it does assert actual physical evidence.

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10-09-2015, 03:30 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:16 PM)Free Wrote:  Did I say that I concluded that it was aliens?

As I said: being a disingenuous liar wins you no favors.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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10-09-2015, 03:48 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:18 PM)morondog Wrote:  
(10-09-2015 03:16 PM)Free Wrote:  Did I say that I concluded that it was aliens?

Hmmm?

Can you guess which logical fallacy you are committing here?

Big Grin

You feel like responding to my question regarding the probability you'd assign to it being aliens?

It's no fallacy. You've clearly implied that you think that to dismiss the idea that it's aliens is illogical.

I have already discussed why I believe the alien explanation is possible numerous times here, so I don't think I need to explain it again.

And considering what we know about man-made craft and their capabilities, we do not have anything known that could perform like the craft that was described. From earth to orbit in 2 seconds, blowing a perfectly circular hole in the clouds above as it took off?

I'm only going upon what numerous eyewitnesses reported seeing, and because of their numbers, I completely dismiss that all of them are lying, imagining, or mass hallucinating. This is very implausible. Hence, collaboration is dismissed as extremely unlikely.

But here's a question for you.

If what they seen and described was true, can you offer any evidence that the object described was man-made?

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10-09-2015, 04:22 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 03:48 PM)Free Wrote:  If what they seen and described was true, can you offer any evidence that the object described was man-made?

First off, it could be man-made *or* natural and it would not be surprising, there are many man-made things that ye common man may not be familiar with, there are many natural phenomena that may e.g. cause lights in the sky or other things.

Secondly, as many people have said, eyewitness testimony is difficult to work with. Have you ever hallucinated? I have. And I consider myself a pretty skeptical guy. Just one instance (there have been others) I was hiking and thought I could see an old woman hoeing her field, as I've seen many times in actuality. It was not obvious to me that it was a hallucination until I was standing right next to it, just a trick of the sunlight and a tree shadow at exactly the right angle. I could even see her swinging her hoe, that's how convinced I was.

So ja, until something better (in terms of evidence) comes along, I don't see any reason even to declare that it's anything but extremely unlikely to the point of impossibility. Evidence that it was man-made? No. But you've not given any reason to expect that it should be aliens.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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10-09-2015, 04:28 PM
RE: UFO Disclosure
(10-09-2015 04:22 PM)morondog Wrote:  
(10-09-2015 03:48 PM)Free Wrote:  If what they seen and described was true, can you offer any evidence that the object described was man-made?

First off, it could be man-made

I can accept this as reasonable, but what i wanted was some kind of evidence to support it; evidence that supports the performance of the aircraft.


Quote: *or* natural and it would not be surprising, there are many man-made things that ye common man may not be familiar with, there are many natural phenomena that may e.g. cause lights in the sky or other things.

That's possible, and falls into the 36% category on my list. The problem i have with this though, is again the performance of what was seen.

Quote:Secondly, as many people have said, eyewitness testimony is difficult to work with. Have you ever hallucinated? I have. And I consider myself a pretty skeptical guy. Just one instance (there have been others) I was hiking and thought I could see an old woman hoeing her field, as I've seen many times in actuality. It was not obvious to me that it was a hallucination until I was standing right next to it, just a trick of the sunlight and a tree shadow at exactly the right angle. I could even see her swinging her hoe, that's how convinced I was.

So ja, until something better (in terms of evidence) comes along, I don't see any reason even to declare that it's anything but extremely unlikely to the point of impossibility. Evidence that it was man-made? No. But you've not given any reason to expect that it should be aliens.

Okay, so you were one person viewing one object from one direction.

I am speaking of 12 individuals, viewing one object, from several different directions, and all provide compatible descriptions.

And that is precisely why the hallucination postulation doesn't logically work as being plausible.

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