Ukraine: The Russians are coming.
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21-03-2014, 08:40 AM
RE: Ukraine: The Russians are coming.
(18-03-2014 05:10 PM)BnW Wrote:  First, international law is not like domestic laws. It's not just an issue of enforcement. A country either had to agree to be bound by treaty's and global conventions, or it has to be forced to. If a country can declare itself exempt with impunity, then, as a practical matter, the law does not exist for that country. You may say this is still an enforcement issue, but i think it runs deeper than that. If the US claims an international law does not apply to it, that is the same as them saying it does not exist. They can't then seek to impose it on Russia. There is a legal concept called estoppel, and the US would be estopped from arguing the law now exists. I'm simplifying a complicated issue, i realize, but that is my basic point.

But the assertion that the law does not exist for that country is flawed - the law exists in every commensurate reaction.

If I commit a crime and get away with it, that doesn't make the law inapplicable.

(18-03-2014 05:10 PM)BnW Wrote:  My 2nd quick point is on your "whose rhetoric?" Comment. The Ukrainians are now basically threatening war. I don't think it is an idle threat.

It very much is. The Ukrainian armed forces would be destroyed by the Russians. Both nations are well aware of this.

The Ukrainians are not going to fire first. That would destroy too much of their goodwill. The Russians are not going to fire first. They have Crimea, fait accompli. If they really didn't give a damn they would march through Novorossiya. And they would have done it two weeks ago.

(18-03-2014 05:10 PM)BnW Wrote:  So, now what do we do? Do you really believe Putin will just cave if we pass sanctions that strangle his economy? I don't. And, what do you think he will do if the Ukrainians start shooting at his troops?

We see what happens before doing anything rash.

Whatever else Putin may be he is not stupid.

What do you mean "cave"? Do you mean, go home from Crimea, hat in hand? That won't happen. Do you mean, do anything further? I am quite certain that won't happen either.

(18-03-2014 05:10 PM)BnW Wrote:  Are we willing to go to war over Ukraine?

No. And no one ever said as much.

We go to war over NATO. That's the same red line it's always been.

(18-03-2014 05:10 PM)BnW Wrote:  Of we employ sanctions, what it's the exit strategy of it then gets uglier?

Sanctions don't have an exit strategy...

If you mean what further response should be taken, then that depends on what further actions are taken.

(18-03-2014 05:10 PM)BnW Wrote:  I have no idea but i hope someone in power is thinking about it.

I'm pretty sure they've been thinking of little else for the past month.

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