Venezuela is so fucked.
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02-08-2017, 09:20 PM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(02-08-2017 08:58 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  Huh.. I don't actually know much (very little actually) about the Russian Revolution. I always assumed it was the people rising up sick of aristocratic rule considering they were a monarchy prior to it.


There were 2 revolutions in Russia in 1917 if you count bolshevik takeover as second - supprsedly it had 3 lies in it name: it wasn't great, socialistic or revolution. One in february had something to do with people rising but immediate reason was food shortage if I recall correctly. Uneasiness about number of war victims and issues with Tzar also counted for something.

Quote: That's supposedly how communism is supposed to happen anyway, the mass poor rising up. Come to think of it China was the same. The Communist Chinese were a minority rebel force that would later come and take over all China (with the help of the USSR though mind you).

Communism was supposed to happen more or less without violence as natural and inevitable phase. If I remember right violence was supposed to happen earlier - during socialism phase. It needed highly developed capitalism, though Marx wasn't adamant about it all the time.

Communism was simply utopia and Marx himself didn't described it in much detail.

As for bolsheviks being minority they were smart enough to offer masses what they wanted - peace and soil.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

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03-08-2017, 01:13 AM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
Quote:As for bolsheviks being minority they were smart enough to offer masses what they wanted - peace and soil.

Mmmm. What is the Venezuelan government offering the people? Nothing but violent reactions towards their protests and corruption?

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03-08-2017, 01:22 AM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(03-08-2017 01:13 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  
Quote:As for bolsheviks being minority they were smart enough to offer masses what they wanted - peace and soil.

Mmmm. What is the Venezuelan government offering the people? Nothing but violent reactions towards their protests and corruption?

Rule by fear is a thing. It's a difficult trick to pull off. You've got to have sufficient numbers of self-interested thugs who're willing to do your dirty work, and you've got to keep them happy. If you don't, they turn on you. But even if that happens, once thugs get a taste of power they enjoy it a lot.

The proletariat - the mob - can expel the thugs but like a bunch of sheep kept in line by one dog, they won't do so easily, because the thugs can single out people and make a very visible and scary example of them. Also the thugs will probably make sure that they are well armed and everyone else isn't, so any move to get rid of them will result in massive bloodshed.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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03-08-2017, 03:06 AM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(02-08-2017 08:58 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  
(02-08-2017 08:34 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  The Bolshies didn't have the support of many Russians at all. That's why there was a few years' war after their takeover. They seized the telegraphs and railroads while controlling Moscow, St Petersburg, and little else.

Huh.. I don't actually know much (very little actually) about the Russian Revolution. I always assumed it was the people rising up sick of aristocratic rule considering they were a monarchy prior to it. That's supposedly how communism is supposed to happen anyway, the mass poor rising up. Come to think of it China was the same. The Communist Chinese were a minority rebel force that would later come and take over all China (with the help of the USSR though mind you).

Disclaimer: this is a very rough simplification.

To make a rather long story short. The Bolshevik "revolution" was a coup, not a revolution. It was a "coup" (as Thump already mentioned) by a small group of left wing extremists, who seized a few very cruicial parts of the St. Petersburg infrastructure.

The "real" revolution was in February, and it was more of a "friendly takeover". It wasnt done by communists but by social democrats /moderate socialists (Mensheviki). The new government led by Kerensky was rather conservative compared to the bolsheviks and advocated a "middle class" revolution prior to any revolution of the working class. They were advocating a more slow approach to changing governement and society. Mensheviki were supported by a majority of people unlike the Bolsheviki. However they made a cruicial mistake: One of their goals was to continue the war with the german empire that already went so horrible for Russia. The bolsheviks openly proclaimed to end this horrible war. The second thing was that the bolsheviks had talented people like Trotzki who not only was an ideologue, but, like Joe Pesci, someone who could.get.things.done. He was a great organizer and was able to rally people around him. Thus the bolsheviks were able to seize important places during their coup, and Kerensky was done.

It has been proven over and over that in times of turmoil and regime change, its important to have military force at hand to defend your cause or forcefully take down the cause of your opponents. If you dont have significant military power you are helpless against the ones who have, their popularity notwithstanding.

So, back to Venezuela: Whom will the military and police support at the end? The president, the opposition, or their own cause?

Btw: its an irony that "menshiwiki" means minority, when in fact, they were supported by a majority of people, while "bolsheviki" means majority.

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03-08-2017, 04:30 AM (This post was last modified: 03-08-2017 04:43 AM by Szuchow.)
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
@Dessee23

Before Kerensky there was Prince Lvov in charge of Provisional Government; Kerensky at first was minister of justice. Later he was popular with people but he managed to alienate them, so called Kornilov putsch also didn't helped his position.

When mentioning gov one can't discount Soviets which can be argued held more power than gov - at best there was precarious balance.

Biggest or one of biggest mistake of P. Gov. could have been Order no. 1 estabilishing soldiers comitees.

Despite all this bolshevik coup wasn't set in stone; there was chance of arresting Lenin being main motivator of putsch. Gov failed - there was some leak of info if I recall correctly.

Ps. Bolsheviks and Mensheviks were names dating back to schism in Russian Socialist Party in 1903 if I remember right. Sometimes bolsheviks were truly bolsheviks as it wasn't supportbof the masdes that counted in this.

Edit: Good if somewhat simplistic overwiew of events can be found in Orlando Figes quite new book "Revolutionary Russia". His earlier work was better however.

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03-08-2017, 06:03 AM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(02-08-2017 08:58 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  Huh.. I don't actually know much (very little actually) about the Russian Revolution. I always assumed it was the people rising up sick of aristocratic rule considering they were a monarchy prior to it. That's supposedly how communism is supposed to happen anyway, the mass poor rising up. Come to think of it China was the same. The Communist Chinese were a minority rebel force that would later come and take over all China (with the help of the USSR though mind you).

Like Szuchow wrote, there were two revolutions. The first, in February 1917, saw Kerensky's provisional government installed. This government continued the war with the Germans which had been a key factor in discontent with the Czar. Kerensky was essentially a Social Democrat. The Bolsheviks maneuvered politically through the summer of 1917 until October when they seized power. Even then they were minority players in the government, and had little sway amongst the people at large.

After their coup, the Russian public factionalized and civil war broke out. The victorious Allies -- America, UK, France, and Japan -- sent troops to Eastern Russia, too. The war lasted around four years, and as all civil wars are, it was brutal. The Communists didn't secure their grip on power until around 1921 IIRC.
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03-08-2017, 11:21 AM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(03-08-2017 06:03 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  Like Szuchow wrote, there were two revolutions. The first, in February 1917, saw Kerensky's provisional government installed.


October one could be only called revolution thanks to impact it had on world history as it was more like a coup than anything else. If memory serves Lenin said that "achieving power was as easy as picking up pencil".

Also first gov was rather Lvov's than Kierenski. It should also be mentioned that without Soviet's support it probably wouldn't last.

Quote: This government continued the war with the Germans which had been a key factor in discontent with the Czar. Kerensky was essentially a Social Democrat.


At this point only bolsheviks clamored for peace or I'm mistaken? If so gov support for war effort wasn't strange.

One also should keep in mind Lenin plans in regard to war - turning it from imperialistic to revolutionary.

Quote: The Bolsheviks maneuvered politically through the summer of 1917 until October when they seized power. Even then they were minority players in the government, and had little sway amongst the people at large.[quote]

I'm not sure if I would describe support for them among populace as small but they skilfuly shown that numbers don't matter as much as we think. Their slogan - all power to the Soviets was neat trick.

[quote] After their coup, the Russian public factionalized and civil war broke out. The victorious Allies -- America, UK, France, and Japan -- sent troops to Eastern Russia, too. The war lasted around four years, and as all civil wars are, it was brutal. The Communists didn't secure their grip on power until around 1921 IIRC.

One could argue that factionalization was already in place. As for Allies - weren't forces sent meager? There was also Czechoslovak legion though. All in all this was hardly a military intervention I would say, more like a gesture.

Whites didn't have much chance of winning war I think as ressurecting of ancien regime didn't sit well with people; there was also issue of pesants and land. Way in which they handled Poland (resulting in Piłsudski halting advance) also wasn't good but I don't know how much that mattered on great scheme of things. Also didn't Reds in possesion of more industrialised territory?

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

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03-08-2017, 11:45 AM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(01-08-2017 06:55 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  So, like, can we talk about how fucked Venezuela is?
I mean, their economy is basically collapsed. Their currency is worthless, there are huge shortages of food and their unemployment rate is going to skyrocket.
Their government is hugely corrupt, I mean they just arrested the opposition. Well, arrested would be an improvement because nobody actually knows where the government took the opposition. The government has armed revolutionary groups. There are massive, massive protests that are turning violent and people are getting killed over. The US, Canada and Spain have said they will not recognize the current government's decisions. And the government has set up a constituent assembly that will rewrite the constitution but basically acts as a way for the current government to stay in power (because they were gonna lose the next election by a massive margin).
Hell, the government has a program where they reward party supporters with 'benefits' (things like food).

Basically, the government has taken over the country, running it into the ground people be damned, and starting what could be a civil war or at the least some sort of weird revolution like when the communists took over Russia and made USSR. Except instead of a revolution of the people rising up and taking over it's a very unpopular government taking over.

Basically, the whole countries fucked.

And that same shit can and will happen in America if we keep allowing for GOP corporate welfare and more Wall Street deregulation.

Two things I wish media would stop fucking doing in news. 1. Keep harping on the cost of gas, up or down, I don't care, the planet needs to get off of it anyway. Secondly the stock market. I really hate how they always talk of new records. That has not stopped a bubble every damned decade. Reagan had his 1 day crash. Bill Clinton had his dot.com bubble and Bush, well, he really fucked up with his tripple whammy car/bank/housing bust.

Everyone is talking about how much better America's economy is vs 8 years ago, but still, we also get stuck on short term gains and that is still not long term planning.

We are still not punishing corporations like Wells Fargo with much more than fines. Even here the fat cats have no skin in the game. Even here they socialize the profits between them when they win, and socialize the losses on tax payers when they lose.

The GOP/Trump agenda will set us up in 4 to 8 years depending for a bubble just as bad if not worse than Bush.

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03-08-2017, 12:36 PM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(03-08-2017 11:21 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  
(03-08-2017 06:03 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  Like Szuchow wrote, there were two revolutions. The first, in February 1917, saw Kerensky's provisional government installed.


October one could be only called revolution thanks to impact it had on world history as it was more like a coup than anything else. If memory serves Lenin said that "achieving power was as easy as picking up pencil".

Also first gov was rather Lvov's than Kierenski. It should also be mentioned that without Soviet's support it probably wouldn't last.

Quote: This government continued the war with the Germans which had been a key factor in discontent with the Czar. Kerensky was essentially a Social Democrat.


At this point only bolsheviks clamored for peace or I'm mistaken? If so gov support for war effort wasn't strange.

One also should keep in mind Lenin plans in regard to war - turning it from imperialistic to revolutionary.

I appreciate the correction on these two points. My knowledge of the events of 1917 - 1921 there are admittedly sketchy and not derived from source work, which, knowing your reading habits, you no doubt have perused. Lvov had been mentioned already in this thread -- but I guess I've read more about Kerensky and that causes me to think of the Prov gov't in his name.

(03-08-2017 11:21 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  I'm not sure if I would describe support for them among populace as small but they skilfuly shown that numbers don't matter as much as we think. Their slogan - all power to the Soviets was neat trick.

Sure, they did have some support in the hinterlands, and moreso in the cities.

(03-08-2017 11:21 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  One could argue that factionalization was already in place. As for Allies - weren't forces sent meager? There was also Czechoslovak legion though. All in all this was hardly a military intervention I would say, more like a gesture.

Yeah, the factionalization had been in place, so far as I know, for five or so decades, if you consider that Nicholas's father was assassinated in the 1870s (?). The left in Czarist Russia had a longer provenance than most non-Russians seem to understand. Even before the war, the Decembrists staged an attempted coup in 1905, no? There had been for a long while widespread dissatisfaction with the Romanovs.

(03-08-2017 11:21 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  Whites didn't have much chance of winning war I think as ressurecting of ancien regime didn't sit well with people; there was also issue of pesants and land. Way in which they handled Poland (resulting in Piłsudski halting advance) also wasn't good but I don't know how much that mattered on great scheme of things. Also didn't Reds in possesion of more industrialised territory?

So far as I know, you're very right. The Bolsheviks had propagandized the factory workers well. It didn't hurt that by 1917 a good number of them had been peasants pulled from the farms to do war work under rough conditions. I believe that was one reason the Bolsheviks had a wider reach into the countryside than their efforts and membership might indicate.
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03-08-2017, 01:03 PM
RE: Venezuela is so fucked.
(03-08-2017 12:36 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  I appreciate the correction on these two points. My knowledge of the events of 1917 - 1921 there are admittedly sketchy and not derived from source work, which, knowing your reading habits, you no doubt have perused.


No problem. My knowledge, thanks to my thesis is perhaps wider, but without books at hand I have certain issues with structuring thoughts.

Quote: Lvov had been mentioned already in this thread -- but I guess I've read more about Kerensky and that causes me to think of the Prov gov't in his name.


To be fair only feted member of P. Gov. was Kerensky so mistake is more than understandable.

Quote: Sure, they did have some support in the hinterlands, and moreso in the cities.


On the other hand their support evaporated quickly but never completely - remember Kronstadt. Still they had their henchmans.

Quote: Yeah, the factionalization had been in place, so far as I know, for five or so decades, if you consider that Nicholas's father was assassinated in the 1870s (?). The left in Czarist Russia had a longer provenance than most non-Russians seem to understand. Even before the war, the Decembrists staged an attempted coup in 1905, no? There had been for a long while widespread dissatisfaction with the Romanovs.


Depends on how you define widespread I suppose. I would say that it was Bloody Sunday with Father Gapon at helm that ended faith in Father Tsar - shooting unarmed civilians don't do much to endear people, even in autocracy.

All in all I don't know much about pre-revolutionary Russia - Ziemla Wola, little bit about 1905, Stolypin. More code words than real understanding I'm afraid.

Quote: So far as I know, you're very right. The Bolsheviks had propagandized the factory workers well. It didn't hurt that by 1917 a good number of them had been peasants pulled from the farms to do war work under rough conditions. I believe that was one reason the Bolsheviks had a wider reach into the countryside than their efforts and membership might indicate.

Biggest bolsheviks asset was I think Lenin saying "steal what was stolen" directed at pesantry - peasants didn't have reason to support Whites while they had reason to at least not damage Reds.

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