War with North Korea impending
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24-09-2017, 02:51 PM
RE: War with North Korea impending
(24-09-2017 02:05 PM)mordant Wrote:  Something I haven't noticed anyone bring up here (forgive me if I missed it) is that wars make even disliked presidents more popular.

Absolutely. History-nerdish, I know, but John Adams, 2nd president, was under intense pressure to go to war with France. Had he done so, there would have been rally 'round the flag stuff and he might have won a second term, and lacking nukes things would have probably ended with loss of life but not loss of existential existence, which is what South Korea and Japan have to face based on the whim of two screeching four-year olds.

But Adams said no, this really doesn't serve the interests of America or humanity in general. Which is to say, even our least popular and well known presidents would be better than Trump. God, even Millard Fillmore wouldn't be purposely trying to piss off someone who can kill millions with the push of a button.

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25-09-2017, 04:35 AM
RE: War with North Korea impending
(24-09-2017 02:35 PM)morondog Wrote:  And they'll blow as much of South Korea to kingdom come as they can, but Trump doesn't care at *all* about South Korea - I mean, he may say he does, but he's definitely happy to risk their lives and not American ones, so it's all win from his perspective.
I think it was Lindsay Graham who said Trump felt that it was better for the casualties to be "over there" rather than here, and Graham agreed with this. Maybe that is, pragmatically, true from our perspective, but the fact that a major public figure feels okay about actually expressing that in front of a microphone -- well, if I were South Korean, I'd be saying, "hello? I'm right here listening." Talk about "the ugly American" approach to things.

In any case, this is the 21st century, the world is more interconnected and interdependent than ever. Two or three million dead people on the Korean peninsula and maybe Japan, Guam or elsewhere isn't something we can expect won't have huge economic and practical knock-on effects. For example in the past a fire in just one computer chip making factory in that region meant that people here had trouble buying computers and cell phones for a few weeks. That's what happens when you offshore things to the lowest bidder.

Also people seem to forget that China intervened in the last Korean war, making it exponentially harder for there to be a clean "win". And China's nukes CAN reach us.
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25-09-2017, 06:21 AM (This post was last modified: 25-09-2017 06:25 AM by BikerDude.)
RE: War with North Korea impending
(23-09-2017 03:38 PM)Dworkin Wrote:  Also regarding "lashes out" the Chinese have said that they will not allow a war started by the Yankees in this part of the world and Putin has made similar, but more nuanced remarks. NK will be aware that they hold the key in defence but would lose it in attack.

D.

Happily the RedSox are 5 games up on the Yankees.
I think we are safe.
They have making the playoffs to concern them.

And besides. I just think all this NK stuff is a bunch of crap that won't amount to anything.
If we put sanctions in place it will only give the market to Russia who will ignore the sanctions and Trump won't say anything about it.

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25-09-2017, 02:07 PM
RE: War with North Korea impending
Here's the North Korean pretext for a first strike and start of war:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/we-have-...-says.html


Quote:Pyongyang could target planes even when they are not flying in North Korean airspace, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York.

"The whole world should clearly remember it was the U.S. who first declared war on our country," he said.

"Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have every right to make countermeasures, including the right to shoot down United States strategic bombers even when they are not inside the airspace border of our country," he added.

As I've stated in another reply on these pages, this sure looks like it is coming to a head in months, not years. There is always the possibility the North Koreans pull back at the brink of war breaking out--they do have a history of brinksmanship like that. But it's sure looking like this conflict will be resolved through war.
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25-09-2017, 02:13 PM
RE: War with North Korea impending
(25-09-2017 04:35 AM)mordant Wrote:  And China's nukes CAN reach us.

Doubt they'd risk it. You guys can also fuck them over. All out nuclear war will only start by accident IMO. Problem is that the accident could easily happen. Nuclear war with North Korea will probably just result in massive deaths in North and South Korea and maybe Japan.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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25-09-2017, 03:34 PM
RE: War with North Korea impending
This may boil down to which heads of state gives the least fucks
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27-09-2017, 10:15 PM
RE: War with North Korea impending
(25-09-2017 02:07 PM)BryanS Wrote:  Here's the North Korean pretext for a first strike and start of war:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/we-have-...-says.html


Quote:Pyongyang could target planes even when they are not flying in North Korean airspace, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York.

"The whole world should clearly remember it was the U.S. who first declared war on our country," he said.

"Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have every right to make countermeasures, including the right to shoot down United States strategic bombers even when they are not inside the airspace border of our country," he added.

As I've stated in another reply on these pages, this sure looks like it is coming to a head in months, not years. There is always the possibility the North Koreans pull back at the brink of war breaking out--they do have a history of brinksmanship like that. But it's sure looking like this conflict will be resolved through war.
I think the NKs are aware that we haven't actually "declared war" and so yes this is bluster. In other articles the NKs show a keen interest in trying to figure us out and care what we mean, so I think they understand what "declaring war" actually means.

However ... shit rolls downhill and with this sort of rhetoric ringing in their ears, it's easy for some trigger (or button) happy soldier to start a conflict in just this way -- on either side. Imagine flying those bomber missions for the US. You know your job is to issue a big fat NYAH NYAH to NK and that they have threatened to shoot you down. How easy it would be to misinterpret something that's not a threat as a threat, or to overreact to an actual threat?

Everyone on both sides are hyper-vigilant and that is not a Good Thing.
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27-09-2017, 10:26 PM
RE: War with North Korea impending
(25-09-2017 02:13 PM)morondog Wrote:  
(25-09-2017 04:35 AM)mordant Wrote:  And China's nukes CAN reach us.

Doubt they'd risk it. You guys can also fuck them over. All out nuclear war will only start by accident IMO. Problem is that the accident could easily happen. Nuclear war with North Korea will probably just result in massive deaths in North and South Korea and maybe Japan.
I doubt they'd risk it NOW, but after the conflict is joined, that's a horse of a different color. China surprised us by getting involved in the first Korean war. This time around they've said if NK starts it, they'll let it play out but if the US starts it they will intervene. Of course as anyone who used to play in schoolyards knows, it's often hard to figure out who started what, so that's somehow not comforting to me.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) has actually worked surprisingly well when the opponents are fairly symmetric in their nuclear capability, e.g., Russia, the US, China. But things are pretty asymmetrical between NK and the US. We have a lot more nukes and they have so few that even our rather untested and not 100% effective ICBM countermeasures will probably be sufficient to the task. So here while MAD doesn't apply to us, it does apply to NK. To start a nuclear exchange with us would be quick annihilation for NK.

The problem is that NK is extremely used to hardship and very fatalistic. When one reporter pointed out the consequences of attacking us, they said, at least for public consumption, it doesn't matter. We've been through annihilation before. A few thousand of us will survive and we'll rebuild. It's what we do.

People who haven't visited Asia don't understand what I call their Hive Mind. I spent a few weeks in Vietnam, mostly Hanoi, and one can't help but be struck by this. They are the nicest people in peacetime, but poke their nest and they will march to their deaths by the tends of thousands without a second thought to defend it. They don't fear discomfort and hardship and starvation and maiming and death like we do. In Vietnam there are plenty of (now elderly) maimed and crippled veterans crawling around on the streets without bitterness or self-pity. They'd sign up for it all over again if they had to.

So it'd be a mistake to imagine that NK's calculus were very much like ours in this regard, particularly given they're a totalitarian state. Their operant conditioning is that the nation is far more important than the individual. Children are taught from the cradle to give their lives for the good of the country and the Dear Leader. I came away from Vietnam not wanting to mess with those fuckers ... NK would be like Vietnam on steroids.
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27-09-2017, 10:37 PM
RE: War with North Korea impending
Really? A few weeks in Vietnam gave you some sort of insight into a "hive mind" that makes Asian cultures especially menacing?

For the record, I've been to Vietnam and lived in South Korea for a year and I think you saw what you wanted to see.
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28-09-2017, 07:54 AM
RE: War with North Korea impending
I heard on CNN that some of Un's people got in touch with some members of congress and asked them how to interpret trump.

Good luck with that!

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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