What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
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06-07-2014, 04:25 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 03:01 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 02:55 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  Sure, but you're talking about the US halting production. I'm saying that the rest of the world seems very capable of producing its own grain, especially China.
If the US was to stop grain production the price would go up and it would become a very viable crop to grow and export because it would be profitable.
So as America's production decreases other countries production would increase (with the desire to export the left over grain) to fill the slot.

Actually China is already a top producer but exports almost none because of its population and the logistical nightmare of that country. Yes there probably would be some nations that step up but would they be able to replace 50% of the worlds total export on basic commodity items? Remember we are not talking about losing a few points here or there we are talking about the potential of the worlds leader in food exports collapsing.

We're not talking about ALL food exports. We talking about a region that grows crops. We're talking about corn, soybeans and wheat. Wheat is a non-issue because South America has growth in that department. Soybeans likewise are being picked up by South America and are being produced there. I believe corn will be the same.

What you have to remember is that this isn't an overnight issue. You have farmers unable to keep producing products and so they sell up shop and the production decreases a little bit etc.. and as the production decreases the cost increases. As the cost increases production in other countries, where it's cheap to do so, such as Brazil and Argentina, start to produce that product etc..

What you also have to take into account is alternatives for products. ie: Corn syrup. You don't need corn syrup. And if production decreases the price will rise and other alternative products will be used instead

You also have to take into account that we're only talking about agricultural products that require these agriculture products in manufacturing. ie: It's all good and well to say China doesn't export wheat, but if it's the worlds leader in cereal export.. that's a different matter. ie: I found data (2001 data mind you but I'm sure the principle remains) that the US is 57th in the world for cereal production. In comparison, New Zealand is 56th...
It might be hard for China to export wheat due to wheat farms owned by poor peasants. BUT if a cereal factory is set up and sources wheat from these local farmers and than exports cereal, that's solving part of the issue of the US not being able to export wheat.

Production is more important because it measures the ability for the world to produce that certain item. If the world can produce it than supply and demand and technology growth will solve the issue of getting it around the world. When you are producing as much as humanly possible but aren't able to produce enough, that is when you have serious issues.

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06-07-2014, 07:08 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
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06-07-2014, 07:48 PM (This post was last modified: 06-07-2014 07:54 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 02:27 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/last...is-n146836

The Breadbasket of the world is drying up. The Aquifers that supply the Great Plains are mostly Fossil Water and do not replenish. So what happens next? If America can no longer export billions of dollars worth of grain to the world, most of it as foreign aid, does that cause the dominos to start falling?

http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/p...heats.html


Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.

Rime of the Ancient Marriner

I chant this often in California. What idiots we are. The Governor whining about droughts, and the fucking ocean right there. Facepalm

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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06-07-2014, 08:00 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 07:48 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 02:27 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/last...is-n146836

The Breadbasket of the world is drying up. The Aquifers that supply the Great Plains are mostly Fossil Water and do not replenish. So what happens next? If America can no longer export billions of dollars worth of grain to the world, most of it as foreign aid, does that cause the dominos to start falling?

http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/p...heats.html


Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.

Rime of the Ancient Marriner

I chant this often in California. What idiots we are. The Governor whining about droughts, and the fucking ocean right there. Facepalm

So, wait; are desalination plants not a thing in the US?

The people closely associated with the namesake of female canines are suffering from a nondescript form of lunacy.
"Anti-environmentalism is like standing in front of a forest and going 'quick kill them they're coming right for us!'" - Jake Farr-Wharton, The Imaginary Friend Show.
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06-07-2014, 08:15 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 08:00 PM)Free Thought Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 07:48 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/p...heats.html


Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.

Rime of the Ancient Marriner

I chant this often in California. What idiots we are. The Governor whining about droughts, and the fucking ocean right there. Facepalm

So, wait; are desalination plants not a thing in the US?

They're a "thing" but no where near the "thing" they ought to be. There should be huge wave powered desalination plants, and solar desal plants up and down the coasts. There are very few. We'd rather waste money on bombs and shit for fat-ass generals and lobbyists than actually worry about a real future.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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06-07-2014, 08:24 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 08:15 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 08:00 PM)Free Thought Wrote:  So, wait; are desalination plants not a thing in the US?

They're a "thing" but no where near the "thing" they ought to be. There should be huge wave powered desalination plants, and solar desal plants up and down the coasts. There are very few. We'd rather waste money on bombs and shit for fat-ass generals and lobbyists than actually worry about a real future.

Good to know there are at least some around.

We've got a few here to alleviate drought, and they are pretty effective at their jobs, but unfortunately they very energy-intensive.. and we get most of our energy from coal...

The people closely associated with the namesake of female canines are suffering from a nondescript form of lunacy.
"Anti-environmentalism is like standing in front of a forest and going 'quick kill them they're coming right for us!'" - Jake Farr-Wharton, The Imaginary Friend Show.
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06-07-2014, 08:36 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 08:24 PM)Free Thought Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 08:15 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  They're a "thing" but no where near the "thing" they ought to be. There should be huge wave powered desalination plants, and solar desal plants up and down the coasts. There are very few. We'd rather waste money on bombs and shit for fat-ass generals and lobbyists than actually worry about a real future.

Good to know there are at least some around.

We've got a few here to alleviate drought, and they are pretty effective at their jobs, but unfortunately they very energy-intensive.. and we get most of our energy from coal...

That is the problem. Cheap water is running out. No cheap water no cheap crops. No cheap crops no breadbasket. This is one of the catastrophic problems that are all going to hit within the next couple of generations. Peak Oil Peak Water Peak Food will all hit within the next 30-50 years depending on how they are dealt with. Considering the current trend is to not deal with them expect the lower end of that scale.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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06-07-2014, 08:45 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 08:36 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 08:24 PM)Free Thought Wrote:  Good to know there are at least some around.

We've got a few here to alleviate drought, and they are pretty effective at their jobs, but unfortunately they very energy-intensive.. and we get most of our energy from coal...

That is the problem. Cheap water is running out. No cheap water no cheap crops. No cheap crops no breadbasket. This is one of the catastrophic problems that are all going to hit within the next couple of generations. Peak Oil Peak Water Peak Food will all hit within the next 30-50 years depending on how they are dealt with. Considering the current trend is to not deal with them expect the lower end of that scale.

Well the Midwest is rather flooded right now, so there's that. And one cannot assume no new technologies will be developed. The "no cheap oil" thing is a thing of the past for a while, as natural gas has the need for some of it.

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06-07-2014, 09:57 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 04:25 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 03:01 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Actually China is already a top producer but exports almost none because of its population and the logistical nightmare of that country. Yes there probably would be some nations that step up but would they be able to replace 50% of the worlds total export on basic commodity items? Remember we are not talking about losing a few points here or there we are talking about the potential of the worlds leader in food exports collapsing.

We're not talking about ALL food exports. We talking about a region that grows crops. We're talking about corn, soybeans and wheat. Wheat is a non-issue because South America has growth in that department. Soybeans likewise are being picked up by South America and are being produced there. I believe corn will be the same.

What you have to remember is that this isn't an overnight issue. You have farmers unable to keep producing products and so they sell up shop and the production decreases a little bit etc.. and as the production decreases the cost increases. As the cost increases production in other countries, where it's cheap to do so, such as Brazil and Argentina, start to produce that product etc..

What you also have to take into account is alternatives for products. ie: Corn syrup. You don't need corn syrup. And if production decreases the price will rise and other alternative products will be used instead

You also have to take into account that we're only talking about agricultural products that require these agriculture products in manufacturing. ie: It's all good and well to say China doesn't export wheat, but if it's the worlds leader in cereal export.. that's a different matter. ie: I found data (2001 data mind you but I'm sure the principle remains) that the US is 57th in the world for cereal production. In comparison, New Zealand is 56th...
It might be hard for China to export wheat due to wheat farms owned by poor peasants. BUT if a cereal factory is set up and sources wheat from these local farmers and than exports cereal, that's solving part of the issue of the US not being able to export wheat.

Production is more important because it measures the ability for the world to produce that certain item. If the world can produce it than supply and demand and technology growth will solve the issue of getting it around the world. When you are producing as much as humanly possible but aren't able to produce enough, that is when you have serious issues.

Nice try, but no. You don't fix unsustainable practices by feeding them new virgin lands.

That's a willfully blind stopgap at best.

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06-07-2014, 10:12 PM
RE: What Happens when America can no longer feed the world?
(06-07-2014 09:57 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(06-07-2014 04:25 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  We're not talking about ALL food exports. We talking about a region that grows crops. We're talking about corn, soybeans and wheat. Wheat is a non-issue because South America has growth in that department. Soybeans likewise are being picked up by South America and are being produced there. I believe corn will be the same.

What you have to remember is that this isn't an overnight issue. You have farmers unable to keep producing products and so they sell up shop and the production decreases a little bit etc.. and as the production decreases the cost increases. As the cost increases production in other countries, where it's cheap to do so, such as Brazil and Argentina, start to produce that product etc..

What you also have to take into account is alternatives for products. ie: Corn syrup. You don't need corn syrup. And if production decreases the price will rise and other alternative products will be used instead

You also have to take into account that we're only talking about agricultural products that require these agriculture products in manufacturing. ie: It's all good and well to say China doesn't export wheat, but if it's the worlds leader in cereal export.. that's a different matter. ie: I found data (2001 data mind you but I'm sure the principle remains) that the US is 57th in the world for cereal production. In comparison, New Zealand is 56th...
It might be hard for China to export wheat due to wheat farms owned by poor peasants. BUT if a cereal factory is set up and sources wheat from these local farmers and than exports cereal, that's solving part of the issue of the US not being able to export wheat.

Production is more important because it measures the ability for the world to produce that certain item. If the world can produce it than supply and demand and technology growth will solve the issue of getting it around the world. When you are producing as much as humanly possible but aren't able to produce enough, that is when you have serious issues.

Nice try, but no. You don't fix unsustainable practices by feeding them new virgin lands.

That's a willfully blind stopgap at best.

Is that what I said? Nope. I'm merely addressing the issue at hand, that being a decline in American crops. If you replace production of American crops with South America crops you are solving the problem.

Sustainability is a different issue. I never said it was or wasn't sustainable.

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