What does science say about firearms?
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10-10-2017, 10:33 PM
RE: What does science say about firearms?
(10-10-2017 02:35 PM)Chas Wrote:  Of course there are a gajillion other factors affecting it - that is my point. Facepalm

I know you know there is a lot of variable in play when we talk about crime statistics. I was simply pointing out to the fact that my sources at least attempt to account for a maximum amount of those factor while your comparision of States doesn't. At least we agree on that simple fact.

In one of your subsequent post, you did raised a good point. The correlation between firearm availability and the level of murder can be relatively teneous and difficult to assess. I personnaly think that this is due to the wide variety in types of murder. For example, I have provided earlier several studies that shows that in the case of murder of women linked to domestic violence, the availability of a firearm in the household is a strong factor in play. If there is a gun in a household, there is significantly more chances that a women will be murdered if she suffer from domestic abuse than if there is none.

On the other side studies shows that severe gun legislation have little to no impact on organised crime related violence since they can supply themselves in area where guns are widely available and smuggle them where needed (the Mexican drug Cartels are notorious for their drugs for guns + money scheme that allowed them to take over section of the Northern Mexican border).

In other words, gun control is more likely to affect ''impulsive'' and non premeditated murders'' by reducing the likeliness of an individual to have access to a firearm than premeditated murders or those linked to organised crime. It also has more effect on certain victim types, chief amongst them women, than others, chief amongst them, young men.

When stronger gun control laws are discussed to improve the security ofsociety in general, I think one should remain aware of those findings. If you want to significantly reduce suicide and feminicide, stronger gun control laws will be part of any successful strategy on the national scale. If you want to reduce the level of murders and violent crimes committed with guns linked to organised crime, it's largely useless. In the latter case, only the most draconian measures applied with vigorous strength could have any effect.

In my opinion, on the subject of safety and gun control, I think both ''side'' of the debate are correct about at least a few things. Strong gun control advocate are correct when they say that those policies could save hundreds of lives each year, but their opponents are correct to argue that these are probably not the lives they were intended to save. America is currently plagued by two phenomenon that attract particular attention and fear: high level of gang violence and mass shootings. In both cases, stronger gun control laws would have a small effect. At least that's the conclusion I can reach after what I managed to found within the scientific litterature on the subject of gun violence.

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11-10-2017, 06:20 AM
RE: What does science say about firearms?
(10-10-2017 10:33 PM)epronovost Wrote:  ...America is currently plagued by two phenomenon that attract particular attention and fear: high level of gang violence and mass shootings. In both cases, stronger gun control laws would have a small effect. At least that's the conclusion I can reach after what I managed to found within the scientific literature on the subject of gun violence.

I understand the different demographics and/or characteristics of the two countries, but removing certain classes of firearms, including handguns, from the population in Australia has led to a notable reduction of gang violence and mass shootings/sprees. Aiding that of course is our control of our entire continental border—no Mexico and no Canada—as far as the importation/smuggling of firearms is concerned.

The figures for the firearm-related death rate per 100,000 population per year tell the story: The US has 11 times the rate of Australia;

• Australia = 0.93 ["Guns in Australia: Facts, Figures and Firearm Law". Gunpolicy.org. University of Sydney School of Public Health.]

• USA = 10.54 ["United States: Gun Facts, Figures and the Law". Gunpolicy.org. University of Sydney School of Public Health.]

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11-10-2017, 08:40 AM
RE: What does science say about firearms?
(11-10-2017 06:20 AM)SYZ Wrote:  I understand the different demographics and/or characteristics of the two countries, but removing certain classes of firearms, including handguns, from the population in Australia has led to a notable reduction of gang violence and mass shootings/sprees. Aiding that of course is our control of our entire continental border—no Mexico and no Canada—as far as the importation/smuggling of firearms is concerned.

The figures for the firearm-related death rate per 100,000 population per year tell the story: The US has 11 times the rate of Australia;

• Australia = 0.93 ["Guns in Australia: Facts, Figures and Firearm Law". Gunpolicy.org. University of Sydney School of Public Health.]

• USA = 10.54 ["United States: Gun Facts, Figures and the Law". Gunpolicy.org. University of Sydney School of Public Health.]

Australia is an example of a country who passed and applied particularly draconian laws to curb their issue of gun violence. the massive reduction in the availability of firearms has reduced the capacity of organised crime to wage extremely murderous gang wars. Such an ambitious buy-back program and ban on handguns ( a very popular type of guns in the US) would be almost unthinkable in the current political and social climate and short of such drastic measures, stronger gun control would only have a relatively small effect.

Ironically, drastic measures like these could also reduce problems of gang violence in Canada and Mexico since organise criminial organisations operating in both those country arm themselves in the US where the widesprayed availability and massive production of firearms, especially handguns, for civilian use makes this easy and cheap enough so that even relatively small and poor gangs can arm themselves.

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11-10-2017, 01:33 PM
RE: What does science say about firearms?
(10-10-2017 05:06 PM)ClydeLee Wrote:  Are these other new England states or Pennsylvania gun laws over this time and do their assist or harm the attempted gun crime numbers of new York?
I'm not sure exactly what you're asking there. But I can tell you than nearly 75% of the gun crimes being committed in New York state -- and 90% of those in NYC -- are done with out-of-state guns.

Pennsylvania is #4 on the 'top ten' list of sources of crime guns recovered in NYC.
[Image: guns-chartjpg-c2c73b32b55d215a.jpg]

Quote:A lot is made if Illinois and Chicago failures but sometimes data is stated how 40% of their recovered crime used guns come from legal purchases in Indiana and Wisconsin. And Gary Indiana itself was a crime capitol sometimes. But I'm an unisolated way, both these placed are 1-2 hrs out of Chicago, the area around can harm. Idk other areas neighbors laws
Not surprising. It's not like states have customs officers on the borders checking for firearms.

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11-10-2017, 02:28 PM
RE: What does science say about firearms?
(10-10-2017 06:26 PM)Chas Wrote:  97% reduction? How do you get that? Consider
Sorry, typo -- 67%

Quote:The rate nationwide went down including in places where gun restrictions were reduced.
The rate nationwide did go down, true:

[Image: SDT-2013-05-gun-crime-1-2.png]

We could speculate as to the reasons for that. Maybe because as some states tightened their gun laws, the national availability of guns decreased somewhat as a consequence? Only speculation, though.

Still, the firearm death rates remain highest in the stated with the least restrictive gun laws, and in states with the most restrictive gun laws.

Quote:Dr H:
Funny, that. The DC Metro Police report that the murder rate in DC is down 15%, assault with a dangerous weapon down 30%, and overall violent crime down 25%. The FBI seems to concur.

Quote:Chas: Murder rates across the country have been getting lower for the last 25 years so until you correct for that, the fact that one particular locale's rate has gone down is not particularly significant.
This was in direct response to your observation that DC had the most restrictive gun laws, yet the highest murder rate.
If the fact that their rate has gone down is not significant, then neither is you observation re laws/murder rate for the locale.

Quote:For ten of those years there was the national Assault Weapons Ban which had no demonstrable effect on crime as it occurred in the middle of a 25-year trend.

I will continue to maintain that the evidence supports only a weak correlation between very restrictive gun laws and a reduction in violent crime.
It has demonstrably resulted in a reduction in firearm deaths, which is the most pertinent observation.
You are welcome to disagree with the FBI, though.

BTW, overall violent crime numbers, as reflected by the FBI's annual Uniform Crime Reports, have changed dramatically at several points. Prior to 1990, no "hate crimes" were included in the stats. Prior to 2009, these included only incidents related to ethnicity or disability. Since 2009 they include: race, religion, disability, sexual orientation, ethnicity/national origin and gender and gender identity. These changes have impacted the reporting of overall violent crime stats (increased them, mostly).

What is germane to this discussion are stats for violent crimes committed with firearms.
These have gone down more or less steadily, from 9,638 in 2003, to 8,124 in 2014.

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11-10-2017, 02:50 PM
RE: What does science say about firearms?
(10-10-2017 06:30 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 02:52 PM)Dr H Wrote:  Ok. Neither is it logical to equate gun control -- which, as you say, we already have -- with a gun ban, which we do not have. Nor could we have a ban, without amending the Constitution.

Gun control advocates are pushing for bans on entire classes of firearm. Remember the 10-year assault weapons ban?
Banning a class of firearm is not banning guns.

Some classes of drugs are banned; yet I still get drugs from the drugstore and my doctor.
Some classes of vehicles are banned from city streets, yet I still own a car and drive legally.

Quote:What class? Civilian ownership of full automatic weapons is already forbidden, after a fashion. I suppose that could be extended to pre-1986 weapons.
Quote:Automatic weapons are not forbidden.

Under the NFA, it is illegal for any private civilian to own any fully automatic weapons manufactured after May 19, 1986.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/922

Which is what I said.

Quote:Many hunting rifles and shotguns are semi-automatic. I suspect they likely did own one.
You suspect wrong.

Quote:Where, exactly, have I advocated for the ownership of automatic weapons? Consider
Where exactly have I ever said that you did?

The topic is "gun control".
Exactly what is to be "controlled" seems to be the immediate subject.

You and Biker have stated that gun control advocates are pushing for "bans on entire classes of weapons".
I ask again: which classes?



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