What is your opinion about aliens?
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01-03-2014, 02:36 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(01-03-2014 02:17 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(01-03-2014 02:12 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  I afraid I must disagree. I do not see how the vastness of the universe has anything to do with extraterrestrial life(I've heard many a theist claim this for gods. The universe is so big that gods must exist. In fact the universe is so big that everything we can imagine must exist. Perhaps so. I say prove it).As I said earlier, we don't know what conditions are needed for abiogenesis. How do you know what the odds are that life could arise? They could be 1 in 10 or the could be so remote that it has only happened once. You simply don't know.

Right, but even without knowing statistics in detail, if our initial assumption is that it is possible for life to arise, it is in fact far, far less likely for this to have happened only and exactly once.

I mean, that's just a matter of prior probabilities and very large scales.

(01-03-2014 02:12 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  As I said I figure odds are we are not alone but one cannot make an educated guess on the subject. There is simply not enough data. As I stated the size of the universe is irrelevant as is it's age and it doesn't matter in the least if it's arrogant to think we are alone.
Bottom line: not enough evidence to make an assertion or an educated guess. There is simply wishful thinking and faith. Nothing more, nothing less.

We indeed don't know.

But - IF we assume life (as we know it) arose via natural actions THEN it is virtually certain to have happened elsewhere in an incomprehensibly vast universe. That follows almost trivially, simply due to the numbers involved.
We can also assume that it is possible for me to sink all the balls on the break in a game of pool. And I bet it may happen from time to time but it ain't going to happen often and that is far less complex than life arising! Lol
Seriously though. How do you know how likely it is for life to arise more than once? How do you know the probabilities? And if life is a natural phenomenon (which I think it is) why would it be certain to exist elsewhere. As I asked in an earlier post, how do you know that life just hasn't arrived anywhere else yet? Maybe we are the first. Maybe it takes a universe at least this long to produce life. Maybe there is something special about the space we were in during abiogenesis(absurd perhaps but we don't yet know).
The numbers are irrelevant because we can only assume things. As I asked how do you know what the odds are. They could be one in a googolplex for all we know...
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01-03-2014, 02:41 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(01-03-2014 02:36 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  We can also assume that it is possible for me to sink all the balls on the break in a game of pool. And I bet it may happen from time to time but it ain't going to happen often and that is far less complex than life arising! Lol
Seriously though. How do you know how likely it is for life to arise more than once? How do you know the probabilities? And if life is a natural phenomenon (which I think it is) why would it be certain to exist elsewhere. As I asked in an earlier post, how do you know that life just hasn't arrived anywhere else yet? Maybe we are the first. Maybe it takes a universe at least this long to produce life. Maybe there is something special about the space we were in during abiogenesis(absurd perhaps but we don't yet know).
The numbers are irrelevant because we can only assume things. As I asked how do you know what the odds are. They could be one in a googolplex for all we know...

If we don't know the probabilities then we can deal with the probabilities of probabilities.

If we assume a distribution of possibility, then it is far more likely for there to either none (self-evidently inadmissible) or many instances than the perfect knife's-edge balance of only once in the entire universe.

Knowing nothing else this is still the end result of applying statistical methodology...

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01-03-2014, 02:43 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
I would like to say that theoretically you could pass through a solid object much like a single wave but the odds of it happening are so great that it is deemed impossible. Now perhaps some time in the past or future this might happen to a something as complex as you but that does not mean that it will happen again. How do you know that life does not share those odds?
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01-03-2014, 02:55 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(01-03-2014 02:43 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  I would like to say that theoretically you could pass through a solid object much like a single wave but the odds of it happening are so great that it is deemed impossible.
Now perhaps some time in the past or future this might happen to a something as complex as you but that does not mean that it will happen again. How do you know that life does not share those odds?

Do you not understand that given a firmly established possibility (given that we are considering something which we know happened at least once) it is necessarily more likely to have happened more than once given the size and scope of the universe?

If you say "maybe it only happened once" then it is you who are asserting things and making up probabilities. All one can honestly say is that it happened at least once. It is of course possible for an event to have happened only once in the entire universe. That is not likely given a broad assumption of uniformity and physical invariance.

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01-03-2014, 03:56 PM (This post was last modified: 01-03-2014 04:15 PM by Drunkin Druid.)
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(01-03-2014 02:55 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(01-03-2014 02:43 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  I would like to say that theoretically you could pass through a solid object much like a single wave but the odds of it happening are so great that it is deemed impossible.
Now perhaps some time in the past or future this might happen to a something as complex as you but that does not mean that it will happen again. How do you know that life does not share those odds?

Do you not understand that given a firmly established possibility (given that we are considering something which we know happened at least once) it is necessarily more likely to have happened more than once given the size and scope of the universe?

If you say "maybe it only happened once" then it is you who are asserting things and making up probabilities. All one can honestly say is that it happened at least once. It is of course possible for an event to have happened only once in the entire universe. That is not likely given a broad assumption of uniformity and physical invariance.
I was born once. I know I exist. Is it far more likely that I exist elsewhere or that I don't? Smile..(jk)
Once again the size of the universe is irrelevant because you simply do not know the odds. If the odds are as great as one in a googolplex then we are alone! If the odds are only one in a million then the universe is teaming with life. You simply do not know what those odds are! And no I am not asserting anything. I am simply asking a question. Saying " maybe" is not an assertion!
I will simply admit that I do not know if life exists elsewhere and I do not know the odds. I would not claim knowledge on something that I can not yet know! You also do not know what might exist or what is possible. Maybe it happens all the time and maybe it happened only once. I will agree that life SEEMS likely but that's as far as I'll go. So in fact if anyone is asserting anything it's you. You assert that because life exists here it must exist elsewhere. Now you must provide conclusive evidence! I will not accept your claim that extraterrestrial life must exist until you show me that evidence.
What I'm trying to say is that just because something is possible does not mean it's probable...
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01-03-2014, 04:02 PM (This post was last modified: 01-03-2014 04:10 PM by Drunkin Druid.)
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
And also what about the question of whether or not we are simply the first and it hasn't happened elsewhere yet. In fact how do you know if we aren't the last and all others are gone? We have no way of knowing the answer yet.
Edit: explain to me the exact conditions needed for abiogenesis and show me where in the universe those conditions are exactly the same. That might be a start. Of course this assumes the same conditions are needed and who knows, maybe they are not. But that is yet another variable we haven't locked down. We simply don't have enough information on the subject.
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01-03-2014, 05:31 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(01-03-2014 02:36 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  
(01-03-2014 02:17 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Right, but even without knowing statistics in detail, if our initial assumption is that it is possible for life to arise, it is in fact far, far less likely for this to have happened only and exactly once.

I mean, that's just a matter of prior probabilities and very large scales.


We indeed don't know.

But - IF we assume life (as we know it) arose via natural actions THEN it is virtually certain to have happened elsewhere in an incomprehensibly vast universe. That follows almost trivially, simply due to the numbers involved.
We can also assume that it is possible for me to sink all the balls on the break in a game of pool. And I bet it may happen from time to time but it ain't going to happen often and that is far less complex than life arising! Lol
Seriously though. How do you know how likely it is for life to arise more than once? How do you know the probabilities? And if life is a natural phenomenon (which I think it is) why would it be certain to exist elsewhere. As I asked in an earlier post, how do you know that life just hasn't arrived anywhere else yet? Maybe we are the first. Maybe it takes a universe at least this long to produce life. Maybe there is something special about the space we were in during abiogenesis(absurd perhaps but we don't yet know).
The numbers are irrelevant because we can only assume things. As I asked how do you know what the odds are. They could be one in a googolplex for all we know...

Your logic can be applied to anything in order to falsify it or make it improbable, and you are simply running in circles.

Probability says that if abiogenesis has occurred once, in the way that we think it occurred, then it must have happened numerous times across the universe.

But how do I know that these evidences are actually real? How do I know that the thoughts of others that I have studied are real? If they aren't real, then they are unreliable, and if they are unreliable, then they are most certainly untruthful.

Maybe there is something special about my own mind and I create everything around me, so that if I believe there is alien life there most certainly is.

I've created a straw-man but have not attacked it, because it attacks itself just like your argument invalidates itself, by itself, and from the perspective of itself.
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01-03-2014, 06:03 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(01-03-2014 05:31 PM)UndercoverAtheist Wrote:  
(01-03-2014 02:36 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  We can also assume that it is possible for me to sink all the balls on the break in a game of pool. And I bet it may happen from time to time but it ain't going to happen often and that is far less complex than life arising! Lol
Seriously though. How do you know how likely it is for life to arise more than once? How do you know the probabilities? And if life is a natural phenomenon (which I think it is) why would it be certain to exist elsewhere. As I asked in an earlier post, how do you know that life just hasn't arrived anywhere else yet? Maybe we are the first. Maybe it takes a universe at least this long to produce life. Maybe there is something special about the space we were in during abiogenesis(absurd perhaps but we don't yet know).
The numbers are irrelevant because we can only assume things. As I asked how do you know what the odds are. They could be one in a googolplex for all we know...

Your logic can be applied to anything in order to falsify it or make it improbable, and you are simply running in circles.

Probability says that if abiogenesis has occurred once, in the way that we think it occurred, then it must have happened numerous times across the universe.

But how do I know that these evidences are actually real? How do I know that the thoughts of others that I have studied are real? If they aren't real, then they are unreliable, and if they are unreliable, then they are most certainly untruthful.

Maybe there is something special about my own mind and I create everything around me, so that if I believe there is alien life there most certainly is.

I've created a straw-man but have not attacked it, because it attacks itself just like your argument invalidates itself, by itself, and from the perspective of itself.
Perhaps you are correct.
But..
You said probability says if abiogenesis has occurs once, in the way we think it occurred, then it must have happened numerous times.....
My problem is with the word "must." How do you know this?
There are folks that say in order for the universe to exist there must be a creator. I see no difference between the two statements as there is no evidence to support either assertion!
I still haven't gotten an answer for the question;
Could we be the first and others don't exist yet? Or the last and the rest are gone?
There is also this. If probability dictates that life must occur many times I ask you what are those odds? As I asked before are they one in ten or are they one in a googolplex?
Do you know? I suspect you do not.
And by the way, my pool table analogy was a joke! That's why I typed "lol" and "seriously though." I assume this is the "logic" you are attacking because the rest of what I've stated were questions.....
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01-03-2014, 06:17 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(27-02-2014 12:02 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  -The chances that life exists only on earth is 0.-
And you know this how exactly?

The ISS...

Yes I know it's a technicality, but there you go; life elsewhere.
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01-03-2014, 06:29 PM
RE: What is your opinion about aliens?
(01-03-2014 02:36 PM)Drunkin Druid Wrote:  We can also assume that it is possible for me to sink all the balls on the break in a game of pool. And I bet it may happen from time to time but it ain't going to happen often and that is far less complex than life arising!

When you break for every molecular interaction in every soupy ocean across all of time in the cosmos... I'd bet on all the balls being sunk far more than once.
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