What's The Probability?
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28-02-2015, 04:30 AM
RE: What's The Probability?
Technically the leap day is Feb 24[1].

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_24

Give me your argument in the form of a published paper, and then we can start to talk.
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21-03-2015, 04:30 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
It's a longshot, in hindsight. HOWEVER it's a near certainty that if you go looking for coincidences you will find them everywhere. The fallacy is that once you've found a coincidence, you ask, after the fact, the odds of THAT PARTICULAR coincidence happening.

Coincidences seem surprising because our brain fails to see the coincidence we have found within the context of the universe of coincidences zipping around us like electrons around the nucleus of an atom of Plutonium.

"El mar se mide por olas,
el cielo por alas,
nosotros por lágrimas."
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21-03-2015, 05:06 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
Previous events are probability 1, dummy. Tongue

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21-03-2015, 05:09 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 05:06 PM)houseofcantor Wrote:  Previous events are probability 1, dummy. Tongue

50/50 in my experience.

#sigh
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21-03-2015, 06:42 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 05:09 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(21-03-2015 05:06 PM)houseofcantor Wrote:  Previous events are probability 1, dummy. Tongue

50/50 in my experience.

I know, right? They either happened or they didn't. 50/50.

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21-03-2015, 07:16 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 06:42 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(21-03-2015 05:09 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  50/50 in my experience.

I know, right? They either happened or they didn't. 50/50.

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Hang on! That doesn't sound right.

You're not accounting for the infinite number of ways that something that didn't happen, didn't happen.

Smartass

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21-03-2015, 07:21 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 07:16 PM)DLJ Wrote:  
(21-03-2015 06:42 PM)cjlr Wrote:  I know, right? They either happened or they didn't. 50/50.

Thumbsup

Hang on! That doesn't sound right.

You're not accounting for the infinite number of ways that something that didn't happen, didn't happen.

Smartass

Nah, see. There's a infinite number of ways for things to happen, and an infinite number of ways for them not to.

50/50. Always.

Tongue

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21-03-2015, 07:54 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 07:21 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(21-03-2015 07:16 PM)DLJ Wrote:  Hang on! That doesn't sound right.

You're not accounting for the infinite number of ways that something that didn't happen, didn't happen.

Smartass

Nah, see. There's a infinite number of ways for things to happen, and an infinite number of ways for them not to.

50/50. Always.

Tongue

Yabut! Not all infinities are equal.

And what's the probability of a fizzy-cyst and a prophet and a gubmint agent all converging to insist that facts should get in the way of a good story?

You'd think that was pretty low. Yet singularities seem to happen all the time in TTA's virtual universe.

Angry

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21-03-2015, 08:24 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 07:54 PM)DLJ Wrote:  
(21-03-2015 07:21 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Nah, see. There's a infinite number of ways for things to happen, and an infinite number of ways for them not to.

50/50. Always.

Tongue

Yabut! Not all infinities are equal.

And what's the probability of a fizzy-cyst and a prophet and a gubmint agent all converging to insist that facts should get in the way of a good story?

You'd think that was pretty low. Yet singularities seem to happen all the time in TTA's virtual universe.

Angry

Well, as any statistician might tell you, the chances of several 50/50 events occurring in a row is fairly high, all things considered.
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21-03-2015, 08:29 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 08:24 PM)cjlr Wrote:  ...
all things considered.
Big Grin

Define all things.

It's OK, I'll wait Tongue

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