What's The Probability?
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21-03-2015, 08:58 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 08:29 PM)DLJ Wrote:  
(21-03-2015 08:24 PM)cjlr Wrote:  ...
all things considered.
Big Grin

Define all things.

All things: that which is not not all things.

QED.

(21-03-2015 08:29 PM)DLJ Wrote:  It's OK, I'll wait Tongue

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Dodgy

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21-03-2015, 09:44 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(21-03-2015 08:58 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(21-03-2015 08:29 PM)DLJ Wrote:  Define all things.

All things: that which is not not all things.

QED.

(21-03-2015 08:29 PM)DLJ Wrote:  It's OK, I'll wait Tongue

Drinking Beverage

Dodgy

So, removing your double negative... all things are all things.

Torte-ology ... having your cake and eating it too.

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21-03-2015, 10:05 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
Chocolate torte is on my food list while hubby's away.Drooling

The sun rises in the West and the bird shits on the coffeetable.


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Yesterday, 08:17 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
What's the probability (sorry Mr. Chas ... I know you are skeptical), but I've been working out the math of horse racing for a few years, when I have time, ... what a fantastic weekend at Churchill Downs ... (no I wasn't there). Won the Kentucky Oaks yesterday, the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic , and the Derby today, winner, exacta, and trifecta. Math. It works bitches. Big Grin

(And it was fun seeing the Bafford family win).

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein Certified Ancient Astronaut Theorist and Levitating Yogi, CAAT-LY.
Living daily with the high tragedy of being #2 on Laramie Hirsch's ignore list.
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Yesterday, 09:35 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
Oh you atheists, it was god and you know it!

God likes to do matchy matchy stuff. It's in the bible. That whole "mysterious ways" stuff is a total crowd pleaser. It's a good thing you caught him on a good day... he's a moody bastard.

Hey... did they ever find any of that Malaysian plane?

Consider Course, that shit was aliens.

I think in the end, I just feel like I'm a secular person who has a skeptical eye toward any extraordinary claim, carefully examining any extraordinary evidence before jumping to conclusions. ~ Eric ~ My friend ... who figured it out.
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Yesterday, 09:44 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(24-02-2015 08:48 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(24-02-2015 08:09 AM)DLJ Wrote:  Warning for Anj:
You might like the story but, yes, it's going to have a maths question in it. Sorry.

So, I've just arrived in Bangkok. I fucking love this place... everyone is sooooo friendly!

Not long before we landed the guy next to me asked to borrow my pen to fill in his immigration card.

English guy, living in Perth (were I was last week) who was coming to BKK to meet up with his mum and dad (which is why I went back to England a couple of weeks ago). So we had a bit in common (which was nice) and had a chat.

There were a few more coincidences but I won't bore you, reader, with any of that.

A little later, he asked again to borrow the pen but this time on behalf of the Chinese guy who had the window seat next to him.

The immigration form is written in English and Thai and the Chinese guy was struggling to guess some of the notes. To help, The English guy showed him his own completed card.

A look of surprise from the Chinese guy as he spotted that they shared the same birthday.

What's the chances?

At a guess, I'd say there were about 40 rows, with three seats per row each side of the aisle... maybe 240 seats about 90% occupied.

I recall reading somewhere about the fact that you only need 23 people in a room for the probability of 2 people having the same birthday becomes greater than the probability of everyone having different birth dates.

But what are the chances of those two actually being seated next to each other.

Anyway, I noticed their mirth and asked what was happening and the English guy showed me his card. I asked, "Is that a 7 or a 9?"

He obviously thought I was thinking that their birthdays were the 7th and the 9th and that this was unusual but he said, "No, look, both 09 / 02"

I must have had an unexpected reaction to that because he asked what was up.

I showed him my card.

So what, FFS, are the chances of THREE people sharing a birthday being seated next to each other on a plane.

Do AirAsia (I know, yes, I'm a risk taker) allocate seats by birth date?

We took photos of the cards (I'd upload if I knew how) and the Chinese guy took a selfie of the three of us.

Seriously, what are the chances of that?

As we stood up to disembark I was tempted to call out to everyone else to ask if there was anyone else born on that date. It's possible, I suppose, but unlikely that everyone was born on the 9th of Feb.

But how unlikely?

Huh

With 200+ people on the plane, it was a near certainty that 3 or more people shared a birthday, and very likely that there were multiple matched birthdays.

It comes down to the odds of one of these triplets ending up seated together. Again, the odds are not astronomical.

There's a book by David J. Hand, a statistician, called The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day. it was an interesting read. Here's some more info:

http://improbability-principle.com/the-l...principle/

God is an ever-receding pocket of scientific ignorance. --Neil deGrasse Tyson
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Yesterday, 10:11 PM
RE: What's The Probability?
(Yesterday 09:44 PM)jennybee Wrote:  
(24-02-2015 08:48 AM)Chas Wrote:  With 200+ people on the plane, it was a near certainty that 3 or more people shared a birthday, and very likely that there were multiple matched birthdays.

It comes down to the odds of one of these triplets ending up seated together. Again, the odds are not astronomical.

There's a book by David J. Hand, a statistician, called The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day. it was an interesting read. Here's some more info:

http://improbability-principle.com/the-l...principle/

I take umbrage with his use of the word 'miracle', as by definition it is an abrogation of natural laws, and we've never documented that. But yeah, the universe is massive and ancient, and otherwise super rare shit happens all the time.

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Yesterday, 10:27 PM (This post was last modified: Yesterday 10:30 PM by jennybee.)
RE: What's The Probability?
(Yesterday 10:11 PM)EvolutionKills Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:44 PM)jennybee Wrote:  There's a book by David J. Hand, a statistician, called The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day. it was an interesting read. Here's some more info:

http://improbability-principle.com/the-l...principle/

I take umbrage with his use of the word 'miracle', as by definition it is an abrogation of natural laws, and we've never documented that. But yeah, the universe is massive and ancient, and otherwise super rare shit happens all the time.

I think he was just using the term miracles to explain some people's perceptions of odd occurring events--not that he believes in them himself.

God is an ever-receding pocket of scientific ignorance. --Neil deGrasse Tyson
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