What this election is actually about.
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29-07-2016, 10:30 AM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 09:54 AM)BnW Wrote:  I saw you said you retired recently. Are you living off a pension or did you have a 401k? If you have a 401k and Trump wins, I think you're going to quickly find a second issue to care about.

A Trump victory is a lock to crash the market for a good 6 months. Impossible to predict beyond that, but he's an unknown and unpredictable and Wall Street does not like unpredictable. She, on the other hand, is bought and paid for by Wall Street. The market will soar upon her election, for some period of time. Probably less than 6 months.

I have an IRA (I started many years ago with USAA in the military) and a SMALL pension I can collect when I turn 62 from my time working for the city. I'm only 38. I didn't truly retire, I just quit working. My wife got a big promotion at work, and we won't need my income. I can stay home with the kids. No more day care. No worries about needing someone at home to get the kids to the bus stop or pick them up. We had to move to Arizona last month but it's not bad here.

I'm hoping I won't have too many problems, but my IRA is obviously stock market related.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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29-07-2016, 12:18 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 10:30 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 09:54 AM)BnW Wrote:  I saw you said you retired recently. Are you living off a pension or did you have a 401k? If you have a 401k and Trump wins, I think you're going to quickly find a second issue to care about.

A Trump victory is a lock to crash the market for a good 6 months. Impossible to predict beyond that, but he's an unknown and unpredictable and Wall Street does not like unpredictable. She, on the other hand, is bought and paid for by Wall Street. The market will soar upon her election, for some period of time. Probably less than 6 months.

I have an IRA (I started many years ago with USAA in the military) and a SMALL pension I can collect when I turn 62 from my time working for the city. I'm only 38. I didn't truly retire, I just quit working. My wife got a big promotion at work, and we won't need my income. I can stay home with the kids. No more day care. No worries about needing someone at home to get the kids to the bus stop or pick them up. We had to move to Arizona last month but it's not bad here.

I'm hoping I won't have too many problems, but my IRA is obviously stock market related.

Santa Clarita to Arizona isn't much of a change.
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29-07-2016, 12:19 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 09:54 AM)BnW Wrote:  I saw you said you retired recently. Are you living off a pension or did you have a 401k? If you have a 401k and Trump wins, I think you're going to quickly find a second issue to care about.

A Trump victory is a lock to crash the market for a good 6 months. Impossible to predict beyond that, but he's an unknown and unpredictable and Wall Street does not like unpredictable. She, on the other hand, is bought and paid for by Wall Street. The market will soar upon her election, for some period of time. Probably less than 6 months.

You are fear mongering.
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29-07-2016, 12:44 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 12:19 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 09:54 AM)BnW Wrote:  I saw you said you retired recently. Are you living off a pension or did you have a 401k? If you have a 401k and Trump wins, I think you're going to quickly find a second issue to care about.

A Trump victory is a lock to crash the market for a good 6 months. Impossible to predict beyond that, but he's an unknown and unpredictable and Wall Street does not like unpredictable. She, on the other hand, is bought and paid for by Wall Street. The market will soar upon her election, for some period of time. Probably less than 6 months.

You are fear mongering.

Which of my statements do you believe to be incorrect, and why?

Btw, that is the same stupid argument the "leave" side of the Brexit vote made when people argued leaving would have economic consequences. "They are just trying to scare you!". Problem was that "they" were right.

If Trump wins, the markets will react negatively. Bank on it. He is an unknown and creates uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. She is a known quantity who took millions from Wall Street. She is pathetically predictable. The markets will celebrate her victory.

How long each situation lasts is a guess. I predict his victory screws things for 6 months. Hey victory market surge doesn't last past 3. But, those are guesses.

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When ignorance reigns, life is lost
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29-07-2016, 12:54 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 10:30 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 09:54 AM)BnW Wrote:  I saw you said you retired recently. Are you living off a pension or did you have a 401k? If you have a 401k and Trump wins, I think you're going to quickly find a second issue to care about.

A Trump victory is a lock to crash the market for a good 6 months. Impossible to predict beyond that, but he's an unknown and unpredictable and Wall Street does not like unpredictable. She, on the other hand, is bought and paid for by Wall Street. The market will soar upon her election, for some period of time. Probably less than 6 months.

I have an IRA (I started many years ago with USAA in the military) and a SMALL pension I can collect when I turn 62 from my time working for the city. I'm only 38. I didn't truly retire, I just quit working. My wife got a big promotion at work, and we won't need my income. I can stay home with the kids. No more day care. No worries about needing someone at home to get the kids to the bus stop or pick them up. We had to move to Arizona last month but it's not bad here.

I'm hoping I won't have too many problems, but my IRA is obviously stock market related.

You are young, you'll be all right. I am already retired, and I already lost one year's worth of income to Brexit. Trump could make me poor.

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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29-07-2016, 01:14 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
I don't feel young! But, you're right that I have time to weather the storm. That's part of the reason I'm not too worried.

Man, this election really sucks.

Shackle their minds when they're bent on the cross
When ignorance reigns, life is lost
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29-07-2016, 01:24 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 12:44 PM)BnW Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 12:19 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  You are fear mongering.

Which of my statements do you believe to be incorrect, and why?

Btw, that is the same stupid argument the "leave" side of the Brexit vote made when people argued leaving would have economic consequences. "They are just trying to scare you!". Problem was that "they" were right.

If Trump wins, the markets will react negatively. Bank on it. He is an unknown and creates uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. She is a known quantity who took millions from Wall Street. She is pathetically predictable. The markets will celebrate her victory.

How long each situation lasts is a guess. I predict his victory screws things for 6 months. Hey victory market surge doesn't last past 3. But, those are guesses.

The market has never crashed because of the result of a US presidential election. You have no historical basis whatsoever for your claim. It is merely speculation on your part. You are imagining reasons why people should not vote for Trump. You are trying to instill fear when there is no good reason to be afraid just so people will not vote for Trump. Classic fear mongering.

Further since the day Donald declared his candidacy there has been some + positive probability that he would be elected president. Let us call that probability X. Now when Donald first declared X was very close to 0. Over time X has moved closer and closer to 1 as Donald swept away the other republican contenders and is beginning to over take Hilary in the polls. This is all knowledge that is available to the market. If a Donald presidency is bad for the market, the market should be going down as Donald's likelihood of becoming president goes up. This isn't what is happening. If anything the market is doing better as Donald is doing better.

Sander's policies were very bad for the market, but still I don't believe that if he got elected, the market would crash. Presidents just don't have that much power over the economy that you think they have.
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29-07-2016, 01:30 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
Ok.

Believe what you want. It's all speculation but I think Wall Street and large corporations are very good at identifying what is in their best interest, and they overwhelmingly back her.

As to your theory of markets factoring in his victory already, the Brexit vote was expected to be close but it was expected they would stay. But, it was never a slam dunk (obviously). The day after it happened, all hell broke loose.

Trump represents a lot of uncertainty. Him winning is likely to cause turmoil. You don't agree, I'm actually ok with that.

Shackle their minds when they're bent on the cross
When ignorance reigns, life is lost
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29-07-2016, 01:35 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 01:30 PM)BnW Wrote:  As to your theory of markets factoring in his victory already, the Brexit vote was expected to be close but it was expected they would stay. But, it was never a slam dunk (obviously). The day after it happened, all hell broke loose.

You are now making a good argument that markets actually react to outcomes and not uncertainty. You've just demolished your own case.

If Trump is elected, the market will wait and see what he does. The idea of mass panic is ludicrous....even if Sanders was elected.
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29-07-2016, 02:18 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
I disagree. I think if he wins the first reaction will be a mass sell off of assets. No one waited to see how the UK was going to handle their separation before they catered the value of the Pound.

There are degrees of uncertainty. Uncertainty as to who will win is something I think investors will wait on. Uncertainty as to what lunacy he will lead us into? That I don't think the market will play "wait and see" with.

Shackle their minds when they're bent on the cross
When ignorance reigns, life is lost
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