What this election is actually about.
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29-07-2016, 09:31 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 02:18 PM)BnW Wrote:  I disagree. I think if he wins the first reaction will be a mass sell off of assets. No one waited to see how the UK was going to handle their separation before they catered the value of the Pound.

There are degrees of uncertainty. Uncertainty as to who will win is something I think investors will wait on. Uncertainty as to what lunacy he will lead us into? That I don't think the market will play "wait and see" with.

I went to look at the history and this is what I found.

http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investi...arket.html

"Democrat or Republican? You may feel strongly about one party or the other when it comes to your politics, but when it comes to your portfolio, it doesn’t matter much which party wins the White House. Conventional wisdom might suggest that Republicans, who are supposedly more business-friendly than the Democrats, would be more beneficial for your stock holdings. In fact, looking back to 1900, Democrats have been slightly better for stocks, with the Dow up an average of nearly 9% annually when the Democrats are in control, compared with nearly 6% per year during Republican administrations. But normal variations in annual stock market returns dwarf that difference, says Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock. He concludes that a focus on which party wins the White House is unwarranted—at least from an investing standpoint.”

There will always be a knee-jerk reaction, but markets overall really don’t give a shit about things that aren’t about the market. See here how the markets have reacted to world events.

http://etfdb.com/commodity-etfs/how-mark...ld-events/

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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29-07-2016, 09:52 PM (This post was last modified: 30-07-2016 12:07 AM by DLJ.)
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 09:31 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  "... In fact, looking back to 1900, Democrats have been slightly better for stocks, with the Dow up an average of nearly 9% annually when the Democrats are in control, compared with nearly 6% per year during Republican administrations...”
...

The author has maybe forgotten that, at that time, Republicans were politically to left of the Democrats.

So, pinch of salt required.

Cool

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29-07-2016, 11:21 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 04:24 PM)natachan Wrote:  I like guns. I own guns.

I also have $50k in student debt, no health insurance, and a uterus.

Guess which one I care about more right now.

Guns?
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30-07-2016, 12:05 AM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 09:31 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 02:18 PM)BnW Wrote:  I disagree. I think if he wins the first reaction will be a mass sell off of assets. No one waited to see how the UK was going to handle their separation before they catered the value of the Pound.

There are degrees of uncertainty. Uncertainty as to who will win is something I think investors will wait on. Uncertainty as to what lunacy he will lead us into? That I don't think the market will play "wait and see" with.

I went to look at the history and this is what I found.

http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investi...arket.html

"Democrat or Republican? You may feel strongly about one party or the other when it comes to your politics, but when it comes to your portfolio, it doesn’t matter much which party wins the White House. Conventional wisdom might suggest that Republicans, who are supposedly more business-friendly than the Democrats, would be more beneficial for your stock holdings. In fact, looking back to 1900, Democrats have been slightly better for stocks, with the Dow up an average of nearly 9% annually when the Democrats are in control, compared with nearly 6% per year during Republican administrations. But normal variations in annual stock market returns dwarf that difference, says Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock. He concludes that a focus on which party wins the White House is unwarranted—at least from an investing standpoint.”

There will always be a knee-jerk reaction, but markets overall really don’t give a shit about things that aren’t about the market. See here how the markets have reacted to world events.

http://etfdb.com/commodity-etfs/how-mark...ld-events/

I don't think in this case it's a matter of which party wins the Oval Office, but which personality. I hope the leadership change doesn't roil the markets, but BnW is right, the markets value stability.

Hopefully those of us who think it might be a disturbing transition are wrong.
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30-07-2016, 12:24 AM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 07:47 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 02:12 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  Because you know, the most important issue in America today is gun control.
Fuck racial divide, poverty, non-equal rights to citizens, homelessness, immigration, poor education and health system or other issues that may come up at the supreme court in some fashion that will actually effect peoples lives in some meaningful way, all that matters is that the supreme court protect your right to own guns. 'Murica!

Here's the deal. I supported the Clinton assault weapon ban at the time. 10 round magazines didn't bother me. I just started carrying an extra mag. I didn't own any AR-15's until 2015. The problem is, the law didn't actually solve anything. The 10 round magazines could easily be made into a 15 round magazine with a drill or file (by removing the follower stop that was stamped into the metal). And "assault rifles" are used in less murders than knives or baseball bats.

Gun control is pointless. And as we see in France, even full bans don't work, terrorists just don't give a fuck about laws and can kill 130 people in a matter of minutes.

I'd rather have the ability to protect myself, my family, and the citizens around me if I can. In the age of terrorism, I don't want to lay on the floor and piss on myself and wait to be slaughtered. I at least want the opportunity to fight back. Do you doubt that America will have a major attack at some point? Democrats want to take that right away, or severely limit it (see California's new laws). Most Democrat controlled states also refuse to issue carry permits.

My safety is more important than anything else the supreme court could rule on at this time. If that changes, I'll be more open to a different kind of supreme court justice.

You're missing the point.
And if you wanna bring up points like more people are killed by baseball bats lets bring up some relevant ones.

Between 1995-2014 3264 people were killed in terrorist attacks in the US.
2,996 in 9/11, 168 in '95 in the Oklahoma city bombings. That leaves 100 people killed over a 19 year span in a country with 300,000,000 people. 6 of those years had 0 deaths.

What the fuck terrorism are you protecting yourself from?

This is an issue. Terrorism is an issue. But it's not thee issue. It's not a defense for zero gun control. It's not a good enough issue to be basing your voting patterns on when there are other far far far more life impacting issues that would be negatively affected by your choice to vote based on who wants to keep guns and who doesn't.

It's better to "suffer" gun control and have 'liberal' judges who aren't affected by what the bible tells them to do, than have no gun control and live in a Christian theocracy. A little extreme but you get my point.
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30-07-2016, 07:05 AM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(30-07-2016 12:24 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  That leaves 100 people killed over a 19 year span in a country with 300,000,000 people. 6 of those years had 0 deaths.

What the fuck terrorism are you protecting yourself from?

....................

It's better to "suffer" gun control and have 'liberal' judges who aren't affected by what the bible tells them to do, than have no gun control and live in a Christian theocracy. A little extreme but you get my point.

Exactly. Lord Dark Helmet, where are your priorities? You want to sacrifice freedom from religion for a tiny, tiny chance that you may need a gun to fight terrorists? Do you realize how out of touch with reality that is?

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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30-07-2016, 07:15 AM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 08:44 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 12:54 PM)Dom Wrote:  You are young, you'll be all right. I am already retired, and I already lost one year's worth of income to Brexit. Trump could make me poor.

It's only a temporary setback. The market always recovers.

True. I've been riding it out for 30 years. There comes a time though when waiting for recovery becomes a huge burden, or something one might not live to see.

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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30-07-2016, 08:21 AM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(30-07-2016 07:05 AM)Dom Wrote:  
(30-07-2016 12:24 AM)earmuffs Wrote:  That leaves 100 people killed over a 19 year span in a country with 300,000,000 people. 6 of those years had 0 deaths.

What the fuck terrorism are you protecting yourself from?

....................

It's better to "suffer" gun control and have 'liberal' judges who aren't affected by what the bible tells them to do, than have no gun control and live in a Christian theocracy. A little extreme but you get my point.

Exactly. Lord Dark Helmet, where are your priorities? You want to sacrifice freedom from religion for a tiny, tiny chance that you may need a gun to fight terrorists? Do you realize how out of touch with reality that is?

Even if Trump was not the president, there's zero chance anyone else could do much within their term of office about gun control. Maaaybe make life a bit more of a pain for those who want legally registered weapons, but certainly not take LDH's guns away.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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30-07-2016, 08:28 AM
RE: What this election is actually about.
(29-07-2016 09:52 PM)DLJ Wrote:  
(29-07-2016 09:31 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  "... In fact, looking back to 1900, Democrats have been slightly better for stocks, with the Dow up an average of nearly 9% annually when the Democrats are in control, compared with nearly 6% per year during Republican administrations...”
...

The author has maybe forgotten that, at that time, Republicans were politically to left of the Democrats.

So, pinch of salt required.

Cool

At which time? the span from 1900 to now? Because that is the time mentioned.
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30-07-2016, 02:22 PM
RE: What this election is actually about.



We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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