What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
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28-11-2016, 10:13 AM (This post was last modified: 28-11-2016 10:19 AM by Velvet.)
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
Celestia Wrote:Furthermore there aren't going to be hundreds or thousands of people in on it, likely there would be some dozens, maybe a hundred at most, but the less people you have, the less cogs in the machine, the less likely there is for something to go wrong. So if you were going to do something big like this, you'd want as few people in on it as possible. Not that that didn't even go wrong.

Yes, we all know that many people knowing something makes harder to keep a secret, thing is, how can you guess that it would dozens or a hundred at most, instead of a number more realistic like hundreds as normally any military operation of this scale has?

His point was all about that, the way humans fail at keeping secrets, fail with dealing with their internal conflicts and seek for help, we do that because we need it.

Yes, secrets probably do exist, but its completely unreasonable to think that such a dark, huge scale, psychopathic secret like that would go silenced for long, we all know that people start talking, they break, they are not able to deal with such interior conflict alone.

That which can be destroyed by the truth should be.”
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28-11-2016, 08:05 PM
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
Quote:But the official versions do make sense, I just think the conspiracies theories make more sense sometimes depending on the theory.


Then produce your evidence. Because you can't say 9-11 was a controlled demolition when there has not been a single detonator or piece of wiring found.

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28-11-2016, 11:11 PM (This post was last modified: 28-11-2016 11:46 PM by Celestial_Wonder.)
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
(28-11-2016 10:13 AM)Velvet Wrote:  
Celestia Wrote:Furthermore there aren't going to be hundreds or thousands of people in on it, likely there would be some dozens, maybe a hundred at most, but the less people you have, the less cogs in the machine, the less likely there is for something to go wrong. So if you were going to do something big like this, you'd want as few people in on it as possible. Not that that didn't even go wrong.

Yes, we all know that many people knowing something makes harder to keep a secret, thing is, how can you guess that it would dozens or a hundred at most, instead of a number more realistic like hundreds as normally any military operation of this scale has?

His point was all about that, the way humans fail at keeping secrets, fail with dealing with their internal conflicts and seek for help, we do that because we need it.

Yes, secrets probably do exist, but its completely unreasonable to think that such a dark, huge scale, psychopathic secret like that would go silenced for long, we all know that people start talking, they break, they are not able to deal with such interior conflict alone.

Had the Germans won the war in World War II, we would likely have never heard tale of the Holocaust, a massive cover up that took thousands to co-ordinate. Who likewise never confessed until they were brought before trial and Nuremberg. Meanwhile when the Germans were being beat back by the Soviets, the internal conflicts of men seemed to have no qualms with mass raping millions of German women.

How can I guess that it was only dozens to a hundred?

Because the holocaust happened for 3 entire years, and happened in many places. 9.11 happened on just one day, for a few short terrible hours, and took place in one spot generally speaking, if we're not including the Pentagon or the other plane that crashed.

There were rumors abound while the Holocaust was taking place, and no one believed it. So I don't think its completely unreasonable. Murderers and rapists can go their entire lives without feeling guilt for what they did, the only time they even show guilt, is when they're caught. And that is what people who do these types of things are, they're murderers.

Also I wholeheartedly appreciate the criticism in your other post. Thank you for that.

(28-11-2016 09:21 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  Tinfoil....


Rolls and rolls of tin foil........


[/insanity]

[Image: costume-silver-surfer-or-aluminum-foil-m...p;fit=clip]

I don't know what you're talking about, I'm not wearing any tinfoil.

(28-11-2016 12:10 AM)Paleophyte Wrote:  Perhaps those ears were not deaf. You have spoken of this with many people. Some at least as smart as you? Yet all others remain unconvinced. You are right but all of them were wrong?

They weren't deaf, because a lot of them become irate when discussing it, treat the person who comes forth and offers their idea like utter trash.

Quote:Perhaps you need to reverse this question. What would it take to convince you that there is no conspiracy? Answer this honestly and you may find yourelf in an interesting place.

My good friend how do you think I became a conspiracy theorist? Its not like I didn't look at the opposing argument. The opposing argument just fell short.

Quote:Not bringing evidence is unlikely to help. Especially in this neck of the woods.

That's going to be a bit like a court case without any evidence. It just isn't going to work.

Well then something else is needed to accompany the evidence, because the evidence simply isn't enough for some people.

Quote:In general, conspiracies can be grouped into three categories:

(1) Conspiracies that worked. By definition, there are no examples of this type of conspiracy but for the sake of discussion we can accept that sometimes two or more people do horrid things and get away with it. This requires intelligence, skill, luck and a great deal of secrecy.

The Holocaust worked, it only became 'revealed' because of the war, had the war ended in favor of the Germans we'd likely never know about it.

Quote:(2) Conspiracies that failed. There are lots of exaples of these, because people often need help committing whatever black deed they wanted done and frequently get caught. A fine example that few people would disagree with would be Watergate.

Peculiar isn't it, that despite so many examples of failed conspiracies, people still try to conspire, which they certainly wouldn't do if there was no chance of their success.

Quote:(3) Conspiracy theories that are known to one or a very few members outside of the conspiracy itself. Rarely, these are instances of type 1 above that is about to become type 2 above courtesy of a lot of press. More commonly, the evidence is unconvincing to the general public and even experts in the field. For these conspiracies to be true, several unlikely circumstances must be met:

- The conspirators must be fiendishly brilliant. Smart enough to not only pull it off but also hoodwink otherwise intelligent individuals after their cover has been blown. Your average government official can't manage to keep all the unsavoury places their penis has been a secret, so they can be put out of consideration immediately.

You really give them to much credit.

Quote: - The conspirators need be sufficiently clever to hide their scheme not just from all of the public, but for all time. Sure we can fake the moon landings, but not without special effects that will be cheesy and obvious CGI ten years later. They have to fool future generations that will wield technologies thay can'tpossibly anticipate.

One of the best ways to disguise genocide is to pawn it off as a natural famine.
IE the Holodomor, and the Great Famine in Ireland (and potentially/probably the Great Chinese Famine).

They also just have to keep it going long enough for people to forget about it. I mean how often do we question conspiracies that happened before the 20th century?

Quote: - Conspiracy theorists that are even more brilliant, or privleged with special insight at the very least. The conspirators have managed to outwit everybody but you. Because you read something on the internet that made you suspicious.

Me, the Russian news (so the Russian government), and the former Italian president. There's not much special insight to going on, but you do need to be incredibly impartial.

Quote: - Conspirators that are paradoxically so brutal that they commit the original act yet so unconcerned that they've let you live. You've just revealed the dirtiest deeds of people who gut orphans to pass the time where any child of 12 can find it using Google but some how you are still drawing breath.

If people who believed in these conspiracies just all ended up dying, now THAT would draw the utmost suspicion. It'd also take a bit of effort to silence each and every one of them. Why go through all that trouble when you can just discount what they say as ridiculous?

As they say, the pen is mightier than the sword.

My apologies that it took so long to reply to you in full.
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29-11-2016, 12:10 AM (This post was last modified: 29-11-2016 01:15 AM by Szuchow.)
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
@C_W

German population was aware of Shoah taking place - soldiers wrote letters to their families. Check Saul Friedländer, "The Years of Extermination". Allies knew about it too, check Harald Welzer "Soldiers". Peter Fritzsche "Life and Death in the Third Reich" also iz worth mentioning in regatd to Germans knowledge about Shoah. Sure, Nazis tried to obscufate (special treatment, deportation) but as failure of their attempt show you can not hide such massive undertaking.

As for your claim about nobody believing that Shoah was taking place - it would be nice if you could back it up.

Here is little article that may help you educate yourself on the subject - http://motlc.wiesenthal.com/site/pp.asp?...G&b=394663

Also even if Germans won the war we still would be aware of Endlosung - allies knew. In all probability we would have less information but that's not the same as not knowing.

Lastly there is no consensus about Holodomor being genocide. Some scholars think it was and some think differently. There is good article on this subject in Alan Rosenbaum "Is the Holocaust Unique" - "Stalinist Terror and the Question of Genocide: The Great Famine" by Barbara Green.

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29-11-2016, 12:24 AM
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
(29-11-2016 12:10 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  @C_W

German population was aware of Shoah taking place - soldiers wrote letters to their families. Check Saul Friedländer, "The Years of Extermination". Allies knew about it too, check Harald Welzer "Soldiers". Peter Fritzsche "Life and Death in the Third Reich" also iz worth mentioning in regatd to Germans knowledge about Shoah. Sure, Nazis tried to obscufate (special treatment, deportation) but as failure of their attempt show you can not hide such massive undertaking.

As for your claim about nobody believing that Shoah was taking place - it would be nice if you could back it up.

Here is little article that may help you educate yourself on the subject - http://motlc.wiesenthal.com/site/pp.asp?...G&b=394663

Also even if Germans won the war we still would be aware of Endlosung - allies knew. In all probability we would have less information but that's not the same as not knowing.

Lastly there is no consensus about Holodomor being genocide. Some scholars think it was and some think differently.

As far as the Jews were concerned, it was common knowledge in Germany that they had disappeared after having been sent to the East. It was not exactly clear to large segments of the German population what had happened to them. On the other hand, there were thousands upon thousands of Germans who participated in and/or witnessed the implementation of the "Final Solution" either as members of the SS, the Einsatzgruppen, death camp or concentration camp guards, police in occupied Europe, or with the Wehrmacht.

From the article you linked.
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29-11-2016, 12:31 AM (This post was last modified: 29-11-2016 12:58 AM by Szuchow.)
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
(29-11-2016 12:24 AM)Celestial_Wonder Wrote:  
(29-11-2016 12:10 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  @C_W

German population was aware of Shoah taking place - soldiers wrote letters to their families. Check Saul Friedländer, "The Years of Extermination". Allies knew about it too, check Harald Welzer "Soldiers". Peter Fritzsche "Life and Death in the Third Reich" also iz worth mentioning in regatd to Germans knowledge about Shoah. Sure, Nazis tried to obscufate (special treatment, deportation) but as failure of their attempt show you can not hide such massive undertaking.

As for your claim about nobody believing that Shoah was taking place - it would be nice if you could back it up.

Here is little article that may help you educate yourself on the subject - http://motlc.wiesenthal.com/site/pp.asp?...G&b=394663

Also even if Germans won the war we still would be aware of Endlosung - allies knew. In all probability we would have less information but that's not the same as not knowing.

Lastly there is no consensus about Holodomor being genocide. Some scholars think it was and some think differently.

As far as the Jews were concerned, it was common knowledge in Germany that they had disappeared after having been sent to the East. It was not exactly clear to large segments of the German population what had happened to them. On the other hand, there were thousands upon thousands of Germans who participated in and/or witnessed the implementation of the "Final Solution" either as members of the SS, the Einsatzgruppen, death camp or concentration camp guards, police in occupied Europe, or with the Wehrmacht.

From the article you linked.

Not exactly clear does not equal not knowing but I guess you choose to disregard that fact. Similarly you disregarded next fragment of text starting with "On the other hand".

It's obvious to me that you know shit about Shoah. Were you have somdthing more than most basic info you wouldn't be starting with the foolishnes of not knowing. For the record knowing and having full picture are different things too dear conspiracy theorist.

Edit: Here is another article. Maybe it's wording won't allow you to claim that Holocaust wasn't known -
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1utwE...obilebasic

If link won't work (it does not for me) just copy and paste it.

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29-11-2016, 01:06 AM
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
If your performance in this thread is anything to go by CW I'd be surprised if people trust you to open a tin can without cutting yourself. Your arguments are *weak*.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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29-11-2016, 01:59 AM
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
(28-11-2016 01:46 AM)morondog Wrote:  I do enjoy the term "conspiracy theorist"... it sort of carries the connotation of doing abstract things with mathematical symbols perhaps. Being extremely intelligent. Seeing that which others do not Rolleyes

Theorists come up with theories. In science that is. They also don't just spin any old random yarn, they actually come up with a theory and try to test it against evidence.

So if you wanna be a real theorist, come up with your fancy explanation, test it against verifiable facts, and don't come yammering to me about it - go convince experts. I couldn't give a monkey's arse about your theory. For example, if you think the twin towers was an inside job, get your evidence together and publish it in a recognisable journal. After all there aren't really journals for conspiracies per se, but for example there probably is a journal of demolition science or something which you could publish in. Either that, or say you just want reasonable doubt, you can publish in say a reputable paper like the New York Times, do it as an investigative journalism piece.

If I hear from you, some schmuck on a forum, that the twin towers was an inside job, there's fuck all chance I'll believe you. If on the other hand the New York Times comes out with a story I'll be interested, and if there's a subsequent investigation by some professional body which reaches the same conclusions that you did, then the evidence for your theory becomes stronger.

In other words, I'll believe your conspiracy theory when you succeed in getting consensus opinion of the relevant experts on your side. Convincing me means absolutely nothing because e.g. I am not a building demolition expert.

What about a Russian news source instead of an American news source? Having said that, I would say Russia Today, which has been claimed by the western governments to be a propaganda network buuut... aren't all news networks some form of propaganda?

While the Western governments accuse it of not being impartial, would it not be not impartial to not give it the same credibility that you might say, give CNN? or the BBC. Because certainly those two networks have never engaged in propaganda.

In essence, the news is always going to be about propaganda, the only real thing that matters is if the propaganda was true or not.
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29-11-2016, 02:23 AM
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
(29-11-2016 01:59 AM)Celestial_Wonder Wrote:  
(28-11-2016 01:46 AM)morondog Wrote:  I do enjoy the term "conspiracy theorist"... it sort of carries the connotation of doing abstract things with mathematical symbols perhaps. Being extremely intelligent. Seeing that which others do not Rolleyes

Theorists come up with theories. In science that is. They also don't just spin any old random yarn, they actually come up with a theory and try to test it against evidence.

So if you wanna be a real theorist, come up with your fancy explanation, test it against verifiable facts, and don't come yammering to me about it - go convince experts. I couldn't give a monkey's arse about your theory. For example, if you think the twin towers was an inside job, get your evidence together and publish it in a recognisable journal. After all there aren't really journals for conspiracies per se, but for example there probably is a journal of demolition science or something which you could publish in. Either that, or say you just want reasonable doubt, you can publish in say a reputable paper like the New York Times, do it as an investigative journalism piece.

If I hear from you, some schmuck on a forum, that the twin towers was an inside job, there's fuck all chance I'll believe you. If on the other hand the New York Times comes out with a story I'll be interested, and if there's a subsequent investigation by some professional body which reaches the same conclusions that you did, then the evidence for your theory becomes stronger.

In other words, I'll believe your conspiracy theory when you succeed in getting consensus opinion of the relevant experts on your side. Convincing me means absolutely nothing because e.g. I am not a building demolition expert.

What about a Russian news source instead of an American news source? Having said that, I would say Russia Today, which has been claimed by the western governments to be a propaganda network buuut... aren't all news networks some form of propaganda?

While the Western governments accuse it of not being impartial, would it not be not impartial to not give it the same credibility that you might say, give CNN? or the BBC. Because certainly those two networks have never engaged in propaganda.

In essence, the news is always going to be about propaganda, the only real thing that matters is if the propaganda was true or not.

Christ man, it's not just if it's a news source that dictates whether I accept it as truth or not. Just that it lends it more credibility that some random guy posting on a forum. Why do you think there are court cases after e.g. a crime ring is exposed by a newspaper? It's not because lawyers and judges do shit for fun. It's because due process is a fuck-off difficult (and therefore expensive) affair and if you're gonna jail people you make damn sure that due process has been observed and that according to the current legal standards they have been properly convicted. And even then cockups happen. But expecting me to give the same credence I give to the official report (where due process has taken place) or a news report (where some grounds for credence exist based on the paper's reputation and the journalists and sources involved) and <insert conspiracy theory here> is a load of horseshit.

This is not difficult.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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29-11-2016, 02:34 AM
RE: What would it take to convince you of a conspiracy theory?
(28-11-2016 11:11 PM)Celestial_Wonder Wrote:  Had the Germans won the war in World War II, we would likely have never heard tale of the Holocaust...

Are you serious? seriously We would have, definitely!
Thats the part about Sam Harris´ conversation (and NDT) you didnt understand: PEOPLE TALK. If you have hundreds, and in the case of holocaust TENS OF THOUSANDS of people involved, a few WILL talk. And there will be people listening...and asking...and inquiring.

There is a much simpler reason, and the fact that you didnt grasp it speaks volumes about your bias towards looking for conspiracies where there is not even a REASON to conspire in the first place.

I cant believe that i have to tell this but:
If Germany won the war, WE WOULD PROUDLY HAVE TOLD THE WHOLE FUCKING WORLD THAT WE EXTERMINATED THE FUCKING JEWISH PLAGUE LIKE ADOLF PROMISED AND ADVERTISED ALL THROUGH THE 30s!

Thats what this whole fucking first phase of german world domination was all about: Lebensraum im Osten, extermination of unworthy life like jews etc. and enslaving of "lower" races. THAT WAS THE FUCKING PLAN, AND IT WAS PUBLICLY ANNOUNCED, EVERY FUCKING DAY, LITERALLY.

Look at the Nürnberg trials and all the documents that were presented, look at the fucking Wannsee protocol.
THE FUCKING NAZIS WROTE DOWN HOW THEY DID THE HOLOCAUST, THEY FUCKING WROTE PROTOCOLS

It was painstakingly documented how many people were transported with train from x to y. Even the allied prosecutors were baffled how thoroughly this was documented. Even if the Nazis would try to erase all evidence of this, the paper shredder itself (to shred all the papers) would have to be so fucking huge and expensive that this in return would be evidence in itself that something was to be hidden. Facepalm

It was filmed! The camp commanders had their fucking wives and kids living in the fucking camps in private living areas. Does that sound like a fucking conspiracy? I dont fucking think so.

Noone wanted to keep the holocaust secret, ever. All that happened after May 1945 is a bunch of spineless cowards trying to deny responsibilty for what they have done and supported.

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