Where's the money?
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20-08-2017, 09:04 PM (This post was last modified: 20-08-2017 10:05 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Where's the money?
(20-08-2017 01:47 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Follow the money and it points to republicans.

You failed to demonstrate that.
All it is, is an baseless assertion, and your assumption that the Republican Party is "unitary", or stands for anything or has anything in common is also baseless, as was proven when Republicans let Trump (a non-Republican), hijack their party, as they have no more an identity than the Democrats do. Susan Collins, John McCain and every Republican stand for DIFFERENT things and have different opinions on everything, just as do Democrats. There is no magic to being a member of any party, and the messiah is not coming under the guise of either one.

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21-08-2017, 12:46 AM (This post was last modified: 21-08-2017 12:51 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Where's the money?
(20-08-2017 09:04 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(20-08-2017 01:47 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Follow the money and it points to republicans.

You failed to demonstrate that.
All it is, is an baseless assertion, and your assumption that the Republican Party is "unitary", or stands for anything or has anything in common is also baseless, as was proven when Republicans let Trump (a non-Republican), hijack their party, as they have no more an identity than the Democrats do. Susan Collins, John McCain and every Republican stand for DIFFERENT things and have different opinions on everything, just as do Democrats. There is no magic to being a member of any party, and the messiah is not coming under the guise of either one.

I showed you republicans are breaking records with donations. Now, I can't prove without a doubt that will lead to republican victory in the midterms. But I can say that it is fact that 90%+ of the candidates that spend the most money wins.

And small donations under $200 are a good sign of how motivated the party base is, and republicans are getting much more $$$ from small donors.

It's all about turnout. I've said this countless times. Democrats have TEN senators up for reelection in states Trump won. Trump's base is highly motivated. Only 13% of the midterm voters in 2014 were age 18-29. Young voters don't care about elections unless some big name is running for president. No reason to put down that video game controller unless its a presidential election I guess. A fraction of Trump's supporters would be more than the normal turnout of a midterm. He's a populist. His supporters are more like fans. Democrats should be very worried.

Calling republicans or Trump supporters "Nazi's" or telling them they vote for Nazi's if they vote for Trump/republicans is a terrible strategy (Howard Dean is pushing for dems to do this). It will backfire.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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21-08-2017, 06:13 AM
RE: Where's the money?
I don't get this humans want of money in politics, there's nobody else in any way I've ever seen talk about it with glee

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21-08-2017, 06:16 AM
RE: Where's the money?
(20-08-2017 02:10 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(20-08-2017 02:07 PM)SYZ Wrote:  Unfortunately, we have a similar electoral occurrence here in Australia. We have "rusted-on" voters on both sides of our basically two-party system; the well-educated, money-grubbing, corporatist Liberals on one side, and the disruptive, union-led, often ill-educated Labor rank and file on the other.

Some old blokes I speak with have voted either Liberal or Labor for more than 50 years, regardless of who the candidates are. I'm guessing the same sort of thing applies in America?

Yeah. And there's a small group of "swing" voters in the middle that both parties try to win. Lately they've been voting republican. But it could change at any time.
It was much more democrat focused from 2002 to 2008 too.. I wonder why and why it changed. Hmm so hard to see.

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21-08-2017, 07:57 AM (This post was last modified: 21-08-2017 08:43 AM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Where's the money?
(21-08-2017 12:46 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(20-08-2017 09:04 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  You failed to demonstrate that.
All it is, is an baseless assertion, and your assumption that the Republican Party is "unitary", or stands for anything or has anything in common is also baseless, as was proven when Republicans let Trump (a non-Republican), hijack their party, as they have no more an identity than the Democrats do. Susan Collins, John McCain and every Republican stand for DIFFERENT things and have different opinions on everything, just as do Democrats. There is no magic to being a member of any party, and the messiah is not coming under the guise of either one.

I showed you republicans are breaking records with donations. Now, I can't prove without a doubt that will lead to republican victory in the midterms. But I can say that it is fact that 90%+ of the candidates that spend the most money wins.

And small donations under $200 are a good sign of how motivated the party base is, and republicans are getting much more $$$ from small donors.

It's all about turnout. I've said this countless times. Democrats have TEN senators up for reelection in states Trump won. Trump's base is highly motivated. Only 13% of the midterm voters in 2014 were age 18-29. Young voters don't care about elections unless some big name is running for president. No reason to put down that video game controller unless its a presidential election I guess. A fraction of Trump's supporters would be more than the normal turnout of a midterm. He's a populist. His supporters are more like fans. Democrats should be very worried.

Calling republicans or Trump supporters "Nazi's" or telling them they vote for Nazi's if they vote for Trump/republicans is a terrible strategy (Howard Dean is pushing for dems to do this). It will backfire.

And as we ALL know, money propelled, (propelled I tell you), Jeb to the nomination and presidency, didn't it (as Jerry said) ? Weeping

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21-08-2017, 10:11 AM
RE: Where's the money?
(20-08-2017 11:56 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  July fundraising numbers are out. The Democrat National Committee only received $3.8 million last month from donors. The RNC pulled over $10 million again. The last 5 months have been brutal for democrat donations, while the RNC has been record breaking. Republicans are outpacing democrats in donations almost 2 to 1 since Trump took office.

Through June, small donations (under $200) accounted for $33 million for republicans and $21 million for democrats. (small dollar donations give us an idea where the active bases of each party stand).

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/347...c-in-july#

http://ijr.com/the-declaration/2017/08/9...ndraising/

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2...sis-215474

The republican base is fired up. I know that when a president has low approval numbers that his party generally loses seats in the midterms and lose the money battle. But for some reason the republicans are winning the money battle big time. Defying the odds.

My prediction is Trump beats the odds. Being a populist, his base will support him while most are bored with politics. Midterms are notorious for having lower turnout than presidential elections, but if republicans can get a large portion of Trump's base to show up at a time when democrat enthusiasm is low, the midterms will be a disaster for democrats.

Well, electoral-vote.com and 538 have very different takes based on the Democrat's performance in special elections recently.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2017/Se...tml#item-9

Some highlights:

"There have been 30 special elections in 2017, five for the U.S. House and 25 for state legislative seats. While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, as they say, it does give us a possible clue to the 2018 midterms. Before looking at this year's data, we note that the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the 20 most recent midterms, with an average loss of 33 seats. If the 2017 special elections are any indication, the Republicans could take a real beating in the midterms, as expected from the historical data."

"In both the congressional races and the state legislative races, the Democrat did 16 points better than the historical average for the district. In some extremely red districts, such as GA-06 and KS-04, the Democrat's gain was even bigger, but not enough to overcome the partisan balance of the district. Also, all these races were open seats, though. In 2018, most seats will not be open.

Nevertheless, a shift of even half of 16 points would be a tectonic shift. Such a shift is even plausible. The most recent generic congressional ballot puts the Democrats ahead 41% to 33%. Of course, it is a long ways to Nov. 2018 and candidates matter, but if the Democrats can keep up their energy and Republicans are depressed by the inability of Congress to enact its program, an 8-point shift towards the Democrats could certainly happen. That would flip dozens of seats and give Democrats control of the House."
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21-08-2017, 10:21 AM
RE: Where's the money?
(20-08-2017 01:42 PM)SYZ Wrote:  
(20-08-2017 01:37 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  90 % of the time may not apply here. Never has the US had such an obviously insane man at the helm, and never has someone whose entire business career been about to be exposed as corrupt beyond belief, been in charge, after hijacking a party which he was never really in sympathy with, in the first place.

Agree totally. Trump's loss could well be the one in 10 that proves the 90% winning with money rule.

Ironically, it was his victory that demonstrated this. Clinton received significantly more in donations and spent significantly more than he did on her campaign.

I'm not even gonna try to make predictions at this point. Both sides have completely lost their minds. That's how we ended up having to choose between these two nut cases. I still think the best thing for the country would be if the Republican and Democratic both spontaneously combust.

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21-08-2017, 11:39 AM
RE: Where's the money?
For someone claiming to be so confident, LDH is sounding more and more desperate with each post he makes; almost like he's trying to convince himself.
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21-08-2017, 02:55 PM
RE: Where's the money?
It's all going to the Trump/Pence 2020 legal defense fund.

#sigh
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21-08-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Where's the money?
(21-08-2017 11:39 AM)ResidentEvilFan Wrote:  For someone claiming to be so confident, LDH is sounding more and more desperate with each post he makes; almost like he's trying to convince himself.

Same thing the Christians do when they come here. At least they're not dirty racist cops.

#sigh
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