Why you choose to not believe?
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29-10-2014, 07:13 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
(29-10-2014 07:01 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(29-10-2014 06:42 PM)Switz5678 Wrote:  Ok chas. You tell me which is more likely

Person A (believes in evolution)
The chances must be astronomical for the constituents (to arrive at this location in space) required for the complex chemistry to turn into biology, and then go through selective processing to end with us humans.

'A' is not well formed so it is not worth considering. It presupposes that humans were a target - they aren't.

Quote:Person B (mental illness)
I have a mental illness, and evolution is just some kind of mental projection distorting what I perceive to be reality.. I'm crazy

I'm not implying evolution is a chance process.

Actually, you are implying that it has a target - it doesn't. The results are all contingent and not predictable; the process is algorithmic.


Google
likelihood- the state or fact of something's being likely; probability.

Webster
likelihood- probability <a strong likelihood that he is correct — T. D. Anderson>

I didn't conflate anything. What you did is just verbal shenanigans.. Twice I have came here, and twice I have ran into your condescending tone.

It's "have run". Drinking Beverage

One does not have to calculate likelihood, so you asking how to calculate it doesn't really make a lot of sense. That is not shenanigans, it is about the common usage versus the mathematical usage.


I noticed that you didn't answer the scenario question. edit: sorry didn't see full text, will do so

One does not have to do a a lot of things, but if you're going to use this term to make an argument it is reasonable for me to wonder how you decided it. I'm sure you didn't pull out your likelihood calculator, but your mind calculated something. Why would something be more likely then something else if that were not the case?
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29-10-2014, 07:21 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
(29-10-2014 07:10 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(29-10-2014 05:45 PM)Switz5678 Wrote:  Wasn't the point

It is precisely the point.

no my point was to choose the scenario which makes me most happy during my lifetime
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29-10-2014, 07:21 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
(29-10-2014 07:02 PM)Switz5678 Wrote:  
(29-10-2014 06:19 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  What I don't get is why you need a numerical probability but lets go down that route. The probability of an external agent outside the laws of time and physics are not calculable because so far there have been 0.00 external agents outside the laws of time and physics that have been found to exist.

If you were a deist that would be one thing but being a theist and choosing to believe in happy eternal dualism is self delusional, sorry.

To be honest with you I don't really know what the difference is between deist vs theist. I haven't read about this conflict between dualism either. Care to explain because I'd like to learn.

I'm pinging so hard on probability because I read the God delusion by Dawkins, and there was a segment where he talks about the probability/likelihood of god being nonzero but very close. I wondered to myself how did he arrive at this conclusion. How were people predicting a chance? I don't necessarily need exact numbers like .0007 percent.. A line of reasoning would suffice

Simple answer:

Deism from Wiki = "Deism holds that God does not intervene with the functioning of the natural world in any way, allowing it to run according to the laws of nature. For Deists, human beings can only know God via reason and the observation of nature, but not by revelation or supernatural manifestations (such as miracles) – phenomena which Deists regard with caution if not skepticism."

Dualism from Girly = Postmortem preservation of identity. That a person's identity survives death. Some people call it a soul.

I'll leave you with a quote from a friend of mine:

There is a vast immeasurable and impassable sea of ignorance between an uninformed opinion based solely on a wish and a prayer and an educated best-guess based on rational theories with plausible mechanisms of action informed by the evidence as presented by our current ability and technology to measure. The former is for children, the latter for adults. Chronological age notwithstanding. - GirlyMan

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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29-10-2014, 07:27 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
Humans was the obvious miss-step.. You're right. Is this better?

Person A (believes in evolution)
The chances must be astronomical for the constituents (to arrive at this location in space) required for the complex chemistry to turn into biology, and then go through selective processing to end up with a being capable of recognizing this chance.

Person B (mental illness)
I have a mental illness, and evolution is just some kind of mental projection distorting what I perceive to be reality.. I'm crazy
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29-10-2014, 07:36 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
(29-10-2014 07:21 PM)Switz5678 Wrote:  
(29-10-2014 07:10 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  It is precisely the point.

no my point was to choose the scenario which makes me most happy during my lifetime

You'd be happiest by willfully accepting and even inducing delusion for the sake of ... dunno, something?
...
Think I saw that in a movie. Lemme look. ... There it is.



There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
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29-10-2014, 07:41 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
(29-10-2014 07:08 PM)Rahn127 Wrote:  Your coin is real.
It has a side we call heads (This is real)
It has a side we call tails (This is real)
Flipping the coin can have two real conclusions (heads or tails)

What you are talking about is flipping a coin with your eyes closed and choosing to believe that a million dollars teleported next to your coin.
In your mind, you are now RICH and the thought of that makes you happy.

Why not believe this if it makes you happy ?
The thought of a god isn't the other side of the coin. It's not any side of the coin.
The coin toss isn't one side god exists and the other it doesn't.
The coin toss is that the universe is real and physics can cause coins to land on one side or the other. That's it. Both sides of the coin represent REALITY.
You can't have one side be real and the other side be a fantasy.
Real objects can't do that.

The answer is simple. There is no evidence that a million dollars has teleported next to your coin and believing that is has serves no useful purpose other than to put a false sense of delusion into your mind so you can have a momentary smile on your face.

How about you find REAL things in life that make you smile instead of mental figments of your imagination.

I'm not knowingly choosing to not look at the coin. I cant look at this time, but prefer it to be heads. The thought of it being heads makes me happier so I entertain that scenario(my lifetime).I know this has no effect on what happened. If someone were to show me it to be tails during my lifetime, I would accept it. When I die, and nothing happens oh well. Why shouldn't I entertain the idea of heads without a means to ascertain heads/tails? I would be happier. This wouldn't be a delusion because I'm not refuting evidence to the contrary, and this my lifetime would be this momentary smile
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29-10-2014, 07:53 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
I walk around thinking everyone in the world loves me. It makes me happy. Doesn't hurt anyone.

Thers's no evidence for this mind you but hey, puts a smile on my face. Big Grin








*At some point I look in the mirror and think to myself, damn but I'm full of shit. But I'm happy so who cares. Then I look in the mirror again and think, well, I care. I care that I'm not living in a fantasy world. But wtf, that's just me.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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29-10-2014, 07:54 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
(29-10-2014 07:36 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(29-10-2014 07:21 PM)Switz5678 Wrote:  no my point was to choose the scenario which makes me most happy during my lifetime

You'd be happiest by willfully accepting and even inducing delusion for the sake of ... dunno, something?
...

I would be delusional if I had evidence to the contrary. What I'm saying my man is that there is No/None/Zilch/zero means to confront the likelihood of said scenarios. When that situation arises why not choose to entertain the scenario which makes you happiest? I'm not saying that this scenario is the choice all people would make. Perhaps since you have no evidence for the scenario I would choose, you choose the other, and that makes you happy. Then I think that is perfectly reasonable.

I'm not contemplating a 6000 year old world, and entertaining that idea because it makes me happy. I know thats bullshit. I'm saying that when something is 50/50 truly, and at this time you can't possibly know, it is reasonable to entertain what makes you happiest.
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29-10-2014, 08:05 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
At the end of this I think I can see where most of the problem is

In one instance, I'm inclined to entertain the scenario of an afterlife because there is no means to decide the likelihood
perhaps I'm influenced by what I want to have happen

In another instance, I'm not inclined to entertain a scenario where there are invisible unicorns dancing in front of my screen because there is no means to decide the likelihood.

I don't know my friends.. I do know though that this was a mental workout for sure. Thanks for your opinions, and the thought you put into them. I hope I didn't rub anybody the wrong way!
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29-10-2014, 08:23 PM
RE: Why you choose to not believe?
The thing is its not 50/50
Either there is a million dollars in the trunk of my car or there isn't.
That isn't 50/50

The police arrest me thinking that there is a 50/50 chance that I killed someone. Either you did or you didn't. 50/50 right ?

NO
There needs to be evidence, at least some evidence before you go and arrest someone.
The same applies to believing something is true.
You need some evidence and so far there is NO evidence of any supernatural anything, let alone a god.

The probability of an imaginary character in a book written by humans actually existing is Zero.

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results
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