World War III
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23-07-2014, 10:01 AM
RE: World War III
The WWI comparison fails for several reasons. First, the early 20th century industrial economies were not nearly as intertwined as the industrial economies are of today. The use of gas and oil make a war involving Russia a near economic impossibility for all involved. A second major difference today is we have the lessons of the previous massive conflicts to teach us some lessons. On the eve of WWI, the so-called great powers did not fully understand how machine guns and modern armaments had changed warfare. The American Civil War, with its very primitive higher-power weaponry, was considered an anomaly and even the Russian, who saw first hand the impact of machine guns when fighting the Japanese, where ignoring what happened to them and were sticking by the mantra that superior forces meant military advantage. That thinking proved to be very, very wrong and millions of soldiers from all nations paid for that mistake. We know better now.

If I could predict the future I'd have already won the lottery, so I could very well be proven wrong, but I think it highly unlikely that countries with nuclear weapons and intertwined economies are going to war because a bunch of assholes shot down a civilian jet liner. It's not happening.

Regarding Israel - I understand the point you're making but you can't throw out statements about how many Palestinians have been killed and ignore the primary responsibility for that. Hamas is firing rockets into Israel and they are keeping those rockets in the middle of their civilians - not to protect the weapons but to maximize the civilian casualties of their own people when Israel retaliates. There is not a country on the planet that would not fire back at a group that continually fires rockets at their cities. It's not Israel's fault that Hamas has not regard not only for the life of the Jews but for their fellow Palestinians.

You want to argue that Israel needs to find a less violent way to react, one that does not result in the killing of innocents? Fine, make that argument. I agree with you. They should find another way to manage this problem. But, you and I have the luxury of having that opinion from the safety of our homes thousands of miles away where we don't have to worry about how far we are from a bomb shelter because a rocket from Hamas may come at us at any minute. It's easy to condemn Israel in all this, and I'm happy to say their policies to contribute to some of their problems. But, the simple fact is that there is a group living on their boarder who is committed to their destruction by any means and is not the least bit interested in peace, or a cease fire, and is going to continue to kill Israelis at every opportunity. You want the situation to be better, start with that group right there.

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23-07-2014, 10:13 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 09:57 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(23-07-2014 09:37 AM)cjlr Wrote:  I did not say that.
Jeez, man...

Massive indiscriminate retaliation does not work. It's not a deterrent, it's a provocation.

And this is what Hamas is finding out. Seriously though 3 weeks of rocket attacks would be justification for any military action by any other nation but Israel is supposed to ignore it?

"We provoked them until they attacked us, therefore now we must retaliate against their attacks". Seems legit.
Dodgy

To blame Hamas is deranged. What are they supposed to do, treat the occasional Israeli "intervention" as a natural disaster? Israel has never conceded anything substantive, ever, in any attempt at negotiation. The Palestinians are the only group on the planet who are expected to be unilateralists.

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23-07-2014, 10:15 AM
RE: World War III
They've been killing each other for what.....60 years now? Obviously what they've been doing isnt working. But good luck telling any of them that.
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23-07-2014, 10:26 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 10:13 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(23-07-2014 09:57 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  And this is what Hamas is finding out. Seriously though 3 weeks of rocket attacks would be justification for any military action by any other nation but Israel is supposed to ignore it?

"We provoked them until they attacked us, therefore now we must retaliate against their attacks". Seems legit.
Dodgy

To blame Hamas is deranged. What are they supposed to do, treat the occasional Israeli "intervention" as a natural disaster? Israel has never conceded anything substantive, ever, in any attempt at negotiation. The Palestinians are the only group on the planet who are expected to be unilateralists.

No in this instance Hamas is to blame. This situation started with the kidnapping and killing of 4 youths 3 israelis and a palestinian. Israel responded by having their law enforcement track down and arrest the suspects, Palestine responded by cheering the murderers. Upon the arrest of the 4 suspects Hamas begins to shoot hundreds of rockets into Israeli towns, specifically targeting high civilian populations with no military or strategic value. This goes on for weeks until the Israelis finally respond and take out the rocket sites which of course hamas has put in the middle of civilians to.

Usually I am a pox on both their houses but in this situation Israel is 100% justified.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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23-07-2014, 10:49 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 10:01 AM)BnW Wrote:  The WWI comparison fails for several reasons. First, the early 20th century industrial economies were not nearly as intertwined as the industrial economies are of today.

I've already said that of course it's different.

Nonetheless, to that particular statement, it has only become true very recently.
(seriously, just look up the free trade areas, the currency unions, the borderless travel that existed 1880s-1914; the biggest differences are technological, not social or political)

(23-07-2014 10:01 AM)BnW Wrote:  The use of gas and oil make a war involving Russia a near economic impossibility for all involved. A second major difference today is we have the lessons of the previous massive conflicts to teach us some lessons.

That's what they said after Napoleon. How'd that work out?

(23-07-2014 10:01 AM)BnW Wrote:  On the eve of WWI, the so-called great powers did not fully understand how machine guns and modern armaments had changed warfare. The American Civil War, with its very primitive higher-power weaponry, was considered an anomaly and even the Russian, who saw first hand the impact of machine guns when fighting the Japanese, where ignoring what happened to them and were sticking by the mantra that superior forces meant military advantage. That thinking proved to be very, very wrong and millions of soldiers from all nations paid for that mistake. We know better now.

That's a historiography more mythic than actual. The most boneheaded decisions were those of politicians, not generals (who for all their conservatism were neither ignorant nor stupid). Are today's politicians more understanding of logistics and weapons systems than their counterparts back then? I don't know, but I'd guess not by much.

And if you think people today are less likely to make hasty, ill-conceived, and ideologically-driven decisions... I've got a whole suite of bridges to sell you.

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23-07-2014, 10:55 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 10:13 AM)cjlr Wrote:  To blame Hamas is deranged. What are they supposed to do, treat the occasional Israeli "intervention" as a natural disaster? Israel has never conceded anything substantive, ever, in any attempt at negotiation. The Palestinians are the only group on the planet who are expected to be unilateralists.

That is just flat out not true. Israel has offered concessions for peace. The offered them in 93 and again in 2000 or 2001. They tried to offer land for peace again in the past few years.

In 2006 or so, they unilaterally pulled out of Gaza and handed it over to the Palestinians for self rule. The Palestinians elected Hamas, who then stopped having elections and ruled through force, and started a campaign of launching rockets into Israel. The idea that the Israeli incursions are unilateral and unprovoked is simply not true. The idea that the Israeli's are willing to make zero concessions, and the inference that the Palestinians have been in any way conciliatory, is equally not true. Hamas are terrorists and they are acting like terrorists. Condemning a country for fighting back is what is insane.

I'm not suggesting Israel is 100% right, because I don't think they are. But, they also are not 100% wrong, and a lot of the world is implying they are.

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23-07-2014, 10:57 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 10:26 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  No in this instance Hamas is to blame. This situation started with the kidnapping and killing of 4 youths 3 israelis and a palestinian. Israel responded by having their law enforcement track down and arrest the suspects, Palestine responded by cheering the murderers. Upon the arrest of the 4 suspects Hamas begins to shoot hundreds of rockets into Israeli towns, specifically targeting high civilian populations with no military or strategic value. This goes on for weeks until the Israelis finally respond and take out the rocket sites which of course hamas has put in the middle of civilians to.

Usually I am a pox on both their houses but in this situation Israel is 100% justified.

In a facile vacuum analysis, sure.

There's a reason people join groups like Hamas. So long as those reasons exist they'll continue to do so. Those reasons certainly include "massively disproportionate Israeli retribution against civilians".

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23-07-2014, 11:05 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 10:57 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(23-07-2014 10:26 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  No in this instance Hamas is to blame. This situation started with the kidnapping and killing of 4 youths 3 israelis and a palestinian. Israel responded by having their law enforcement track down and arrest the suspects, Palestine responded by cheering the murderers. Upon the arrest of the 4 suspects Hamas begins to shoot hundreds of rockets into Israeli towns, specifically targeting high civilian populations with no military or strategic value. This goes on for weeks until the Israelis finally respond and take out the rocket sites which of course hamas has put in the middle of civilians to.

Usually I am a pox on both their houses but in this situation Israel is 100% justified.

In a facile vacuum analysis, sure.

There's a reason people join groups like Hamas. So long as those reasons exist they'll continue to do so. Those reasons certainly include "massively disproportionate Israeli retribution against civilians".


And joining Hamas is probably the most short sighted and ultimately self defeating thing the palestinians could do. It gives total justification for Israel to basically do as they please since the other side is now no longer a coherent government just what amounts to a terrorist organization given facile authority. Had they stuck with the PLO (as bad as they were over the years) we would probably have a legitimate Palestine as a member nation of the UN by now.

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23-07-2014, 11:24 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 10:55 AM)BnW Wrote:  
(23-07-2014 10:13 AM)cjlr Wrote:  To blame Hamas is deranged. What are they supposed to do, treat the occasional Israeli "intervention" as a natural disaster? Israel has never conceded anything substantive, ever, in any attempt at negotiation. The Palestinians are the only group on the planet who are expected to be unilateralists.

That is just flat out not true. Israel has offered concessions for peace. The offered them in 93 and again in 2000 or 2001. They tried to offer land for peace again in the past few years.

The Oslo agreements did nothing to stop Israeli blockades and settlement building. Some concession.

Nobody acted on the terms of 2001 or 2003. Nobody has stuck to ceasefires.

Israel has always refused to withdraw from the larger west bank settlements. The more time goes by the more of these there are. Every delay in negotiation lets them claim "facts on the ground" from an ever more imposing status. They have always refused a Palestinian right of return. They have refused anything other than total control of Jerusalem.

(23-07-2014 10:55 AM)BnW Wrote:  In 2006 or so, they unilaterally pulled out of Gaza and handed it over to the Palestinians for self rule.

Indeed. A territory so small as to be economically helpless, which they then imposed tight border controls on (with all the "incidents" one might expect).

One wonders what exactly they expected to happen next.

(23-07-2014 10:55 AM)BnW Wrote:  The Palestinians elected Hamas, who then stopped having elections and ruled through force, and started a campaign of launching rockets into Israel. The idea that the Israeli incursions are unilateral and unprovoked is simply not true.

I did not say that. I said they were massively disproportionate.

(23-07-2014 10:55 AM)BnW Wrote:  The idea that the Israeli's are willing to make zero concessions, and the inference that the Palestinians have been in any way conciliatory, is equally not true. Hamas are terrorists and they are acting like terrorists.

Hamas did not spring into existence de novo in 2006.

(23-07-2014 10:55 AM)BnW Wrote:  Condemning a country for fighting back is what is insane.

Indeed. So just what should the Palestinians do?

It is simply not credible to say blame is equal when the relationship is so incredibly unequal.

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23-07-2014, 11:29 AM
RE: World War III
(23-07-2014 11:05 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  And joining Hamas is probably the most short sighted and ultimately self defeating thing the palestinians could do. It gives total justification for Israel to basically do as they please since the other side is now no longer a coherent government just what amounts to a terrorist organization given facile authority.

But they have reasons for doing so. From their perspective they are good reasons.

When Israeli responses do nothing but affirm those reasons, there does not seem to be much prospect for improvement.

(23-07-2014 11:05 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  Had they stuck with the PLO (as bad as they were over the years) we would probably have a legitimate Palestine as a member nation of the UN by now.

I seriously doubt that. Not that being a "non-member state" for the last two years has accomplished anything.

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