Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
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03-03-2016, 09:44 PM
Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
A statistic getting no mention whatsoever in the primary frenzy seems to me potentially representative of the possible general election outcome, and it's a doozy:

Thus far, in 14 states where both political parties have held primaries, 16,270,018 voters cast their ballot. 3,958,847 of them voted for Clinton, 3,358,611 voted for Trump. That's a 600,000 vote lead.

Moreover, 9,672,999 of those votes were cast by Republicans, 6,597,019 were from Democrats - Clinton beats Trump in straight up votes from a pool of voters only 2/3 the pool Trump drew his votes from.

Hence while Trump may emerge as the Republican nominee, I think his chances in the general are less sanguine by significant degree.

Why this perspective is not even mentioned in Nate Silver's excellent fivethirtyeight is quite a mystery - for example, there was a lot of bluster all over the media about Trump winning by a large margin such a liberal stronghold as Massachussetts. Except he didn't, not by miles. Clinton won 603,784 votes out of 1,204,927 votes cast by Democrats, Trump only got 311,313 votes out of 621,122 cast by Republicans. That is NOT a Trump victory by any yardstick I'm familiar with, other than the sawed off rulers our science challenged media thinks serves as yardsticks.

Clinton has bested Trump in every state except Alabama, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Vermont and Nevada. Even Sanders has beat Trump in 6 states.

I think a large number of us could be served a heaping helping of extra sweet schadenfreude later on this year.
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03-03-2016, 10:33 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
But...I hate Clinton, too. Sad

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03-03-2016, 11:11 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-03-2016 09:44 PM)Airportkid Wrote:  A statistic getting no mention whatsoever in the primary frenzy seems to me potentially representative of the possible general election outcome, and it's a doozy:

Thus far, in 14 states where both political parties have held primaries, 16,270,018 voters cast their ballot. 3,958,847 of them voted for Clinton, 3,358,611 voted for Trump. That's a 600,000 vote lead.

Moreover, 9,672,999 of those votes were cast by Republicans, 6,597,019 were from Democrats - Clinton beats Trump in straight up votes from a pool of voters only 2/3 the pool Trump drew his votes from.

Hence while Trump may emerge as the Republican nominee, I think his chances in the general are less sanguine by significant degree.

Why this perspective is not even mentioned in Nate Silver's excellent fivethirtyeight is quite a mystery - for example, there was a lot of bluster all over the media about Trump winning by a large margin such a liberal stronghold as Massachussetts. Except he didn't, not by miles. Clinton won 603,784 votes out of 1,204,927 votes cast by Democrats, Trump only got 311,313 votes out of 621,122 cast by Republicans. That is NOT a Trump victory by any yardstick I'm familiar with, other than the sawed off rulers our science challenged media thinks serves as yardsticks.

Clinton has bested Trump in every state except Alabama, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Vermont and Nevada. Even Sanders has beat Trump in 6 states.

I think a large number of us could be served a heaping helping of extra sweet schadenfreude later on this year.
That's probably because the votes have been divided between two candidates for almost the entire race on the Democratic side whereas the Republican side has had well over half a dozen candidates for several months (down to four by now, which is still double that of the Democratic side).

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03-03-2016, 11:15 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-03-2016 11:11 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(03-03-2016 09:44 PM)Airportkid Wrote:  A statistic getting no mention whatsoever in the primary frenzy seems to me potentially representative of the possible general election outcome, and it's a doozy:

Thus far, in 14 states where both political parties have held primaries, 16,270,018 voters cast their ballot. 3,958,847 of them voted for Clinton, 3,358,611 voted for Trump. That's a 600,000 vote lead.

Moreover, 9,672,999 of those votes were cast by Republicans, 6,597,019 were from Democrats - Clinton beats Trump in straight up votes from a pool of voters only 2/3 the pool Trump drew his votes from.

Hence while Trump may emerge as the Republican nominee, I think his chances in the general are less sanguine by significant degree.

Why this perspective is not even mentioned in Nate Silver's excellent fivethirtyeight is quite a mystery - for example, there was a lot of bluster all over the media about Trump winning by a large margin such a liberal stronghold as Massachussetts. Except he didn't, not by miles. Clinton won 603,784 votes out of 1,204,927 votes cast by Democrats, Trump only got 311,313 votes out of 621,122 cast by Republicans. That is NOT a Trump victory by any yardstick I'm familiar with, other than the sawed off rulers our science challenged media thinks serves as yardsticks.

Clinton has bested Trump in every state except Alabama, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Vermont and Nevada. Even Sanders has beat Trump in 6 states.

I think a large number of us could be served a heaping helping of extra sweet schadenfreude later on this year.
That's probably because the votes have been divided between two candidates for almost the entire race on the Democratic side whereas the Republican side has had well over half a dozen candidates for several months (down to four by now, which is still double that of the Democratic side).

After Super Tuesday that is really no longer true the Republican Primary is a 3 way race and given the strong anyone but Trump camp in the Republican caucus it is something to be worried about.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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03-03-2016, 11:24 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-03-2016 11:15 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  After Super Tuesday that is really no longer true the Republican Primary is a 3 way race and given the strong anyone but Trump camp in the Republican caucus it is something to be worried about.
It will be interesting to see which candidate the former Carson supporters are going to pick in the next primary state. Although he never had a chance at winning the Republican nomination, he still received anywhere from 4-11% of the votes on Super Tuesday. That's fairly significant in a race this tight. If they go to either Cruz or Rubio, it could make the difference between winning or losing against Trump in the upcoming states.

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03-03-2016, 11:37 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-03-2016 11:24 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(03-03-2016 11:15 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  After Super Tuesday that is really no longer true the Republican Primary is a 3 way race and given the strong anyone but Trump camp in the Republican caucus it is something to be worried about.
It will be interesting to see which candidate the former Carson supporters are going to pick in the next primary state. Although he never had a chance at winning the Republican nomination, he still received anywhere from 4-11% of the votes on Super Tuesday. That's fairly significant in a race this tight. If they go to either Cruz or Rubio, it could make the difference between winning or losing against Trump in the upcoming states.

Well if I had to bet I'd say that the Party Line will be backing Rubio. Cruz would be the crazy candidate everyone is afraid would win were it not for Drumphf (think Rick Santorum from the last cycle) and Drumphf has spat at the Old Guard every step of the way since he is running as an Alternative candidate.

Rubio is probably not ready for prime time but He polls well against Clinton (something neither Cruz nor Drumphf currently do with both either losing or at best tying Clinton in Battleground states and overall losing the Electoral College) Rubio does not scare off the undecideds and unaffiliated voters that always make the difference in these elections. If you want a Supreme court that is not 3 steps further to the right than you really should be worried about Marco Rubio winning the primary.

(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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03-03-2016, 11:48 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-03-2016 11:24 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(03-03-2016 11:15 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:  After Super Tuesday that is really no longer true the Republican Primary is a 3 way race and given the strong anyone but Trump camp in the Republican caucus it is something to be worried about.
It will be interesting to see which candidate the former Carson supporters are going to pick in the next primary state. Although he never had a chance at winning the Republican nomination, he still received anywhere from 4-11% of the votes on Super Tuesday. That's fairly significant in a race this tight. If they go to either Cruz or Rubio, it could make the difference between winning or losing against Trump in the upcoming states.

My guess is that they lean towards Cruz, simply out of religious inclination as well as shared politics.

Or they simply drop their interest in politics for this season and don't vote at all.
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04-03-2016, 12:01 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
If Sanders doesn't win the nomination I'm going into full Donald J Trump for president mode.

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04-03-2016, 02:39 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
The only thing I was worried about was another Trump thread. Gasp

Laugh out load

Ain't too worried 'cause we're all ruled by the Jewminatti and these peeps are merely hand puppets. Smartass

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04-03-2016, 02:45 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 02:39 AM)houseofcantor Wrote:  The only thing I was worried about was another Trump thread. Gasp

Laugh out load

Bright side; constant reminder that John Oliver's Drumpfinator works perfectly. Thumbsup

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