Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
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12-08-2016, 10:42 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(12-08-2016 12:26 PM)SYZ Wrote:  Self-styled conservative-paleo-libertarian author Justin Raimondo says that "Trump’s ties to the Clintons, his past pronouncements which are in such blatant contradiction to his current fulminations, and the cries of joy from the Clintonian gallery and the media (or do I repeat myself) all point to a single conclusion: the Trump campaign is a Democratic wrecking operation aimed straight at the GOP’s base.

Donald Trump is a false-flag candidate. It’s all an act, one that benefits his good friend Hillary Clinton and the Democratic party that, until recently, counted the reality show star among its adherents. Indeed, Trump’s pronouncements—the open racism, the demagogic appeals, the faux-populist rhetoric—sound like something out of a Democratic political consultant’s imagination, a caricature of conservatism as performed by a master actor".

—Is this at all possible? Or is this simply a whacko conspiracy theory? (I've never heard of Raimondo; is his a legitimate opinion, or is he just an Alex Jones wannabe?)

..... Huh

It's not the craziest thing I've ever heard; the thing is though, even if it's true, you still had to have a ton of Republican voters actually vote for the guy. And the fact that he's on the top of the tickets tells you the Republican base is as every bit as bad as they've been painted for years.

Making Trump the nominee pretty much destroys any kind of argument they could have made that they aren't racist/sexist/homophobic/insert bad label.

Now I for one don't think Trump is all those things; he definitely has some prejudices against certain minorities and I don't doubt he's sexist, but for years he was pretty socially liberal. I don't think he gives 2 shits about gay marriage, transgender issues, etc. BUT he got popular by spouting against that stuff because he knew the base he was trying to appeal to DOES hate all that.

The reason I think this will be a slaughter in November is that shit worked convincing the narrowed group of Republicans, but even as unpopular as Clinton is, Democrats, most independents, and even a sizable amount of Republicans hate him more. And given the last 3 weeks, every time he opens his mouth he's driving away more and more swing voters.
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12-08-2016, 11:59 PM (This post was last modified: 13-08-2016 12:50 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
I heard Nate Silver on the radio today and he said people just don't understand how easily Trump can win. He said that if just 3% less minorities show up than 2012 then Trump wins. If just 1% more white people show up than 2012 Trump crushes her. It really comes down to voter turnout. He said excitement for Hillary among minorities could be lower than it was for Obama so they might stay home. Just because they "support" Hillary over Trump doesn't mean they leave the house on election day. Minorities mostly live in big cities, and the lines are often very long with wait times sometimes hours long to vote. They did it for Obama. Will they do it for Hillary? If just 3% less decide its not worth their time say hello to president Trump.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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13-08-2016, 01:16 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(08-08-2016 11:26 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(08-08-2016 09:50 PM)jabeady Wrote:  I don't think the election would be thrown into chaos. There is a procedure, of a sort. The 20th (?) Amendment provides for the death of the president elect before inauguration by promoting the veep elect. By this precedent Pence would be promoted to presidential candidate and would, after inauguration, nominate a veep. I don't think a veep candidate would be selected before the inauguration because there's no process for it. Easier to go the route I've outlined.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk

The procedure does not apply to candidates, only to the elected.

The campaign would be chaotic for the Republicans; they could justifiably dump Pence as he was not chosen by electors, just by the (failed) candidate.

It would be interesting to see what they would do. If they were smart (not a certain thing) they would select a reasonable candidate - that would not include any of the wackos who were contending for it.

As Minimalist pointed out at AF, they are quickly running out of time; each passing day reduces the number of states a replacement candidate can be placed upon the ballot. NPR had a story last week on this same thing; within a couple of weeks, Republicans will be unable to replace Trump on the ballot in about fifteen states -- almost certainly a fatal blow to their Presidential aspirations, and probably holding the Senate as well, assuming fall-off in turnout due to chaos at the highest level on the ticket.
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13-08-2016, 06:12 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(12-08-2016 11:59 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I heard Nate Silver on the radio today and he said people just don't understand how easily Trump can win. He said that if just 3% less minorities show up than 2012 then Trump wins. If just 1% more white people show up than 2012 Trump crushes her. It really comes down to voter turnout. He said excitement for Hillary among minorities could be lower than it was for Obama so they might stay home. Just because they "support" Hillary over Trump doesn't mean they leave the house on election day. Minorities mostly live in big cities, and the lines are often very long with wait times sometimes hours long to vote. They did it for Obama. Will they do it for Hillary? If just 3% less decide its not worth their time say hello to president Trump.

This is where the problem comes in. If they are counting on nothing but minorities to be able to win, it means that they are buying votes using welfare and foodstamps. That is what is wrong with our country. We don't tax the huge billion dollar industries enough, we overtax those that work, and for those that are lazy or unable to handle an office setting we have welfare. We need to bring back careers to the US, not continue to send jobs overseas. The corporates threaten to pack up and leave the U.S. entirely and go to places like India. Well they have done as much of it as possible in they have moved call centers there. We need to impose penalties for doing so. Make it cost prohibitive to do so. They can't move their cell phone stores or Wal-Marts and the like over there. They pay so little, there is no money for the people there to buy anything. It is a bluff.
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13-08-2016, 10:15 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(12-08-2016 11:59 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I heard Nate Silver on the radio today and he said people just don't understand how easily Trump can win. He said that if just 3% less minorities show up than 2012 then Trump wins. If just 1% more white people show up than 2012 Trump crushes her. It really comes down to voter turnout. He said excitement for Hillary among minorities could be lower than it was for Obama so they might stay home. Just because they "support" Hillary over Trump doesn't mean they leave the house on election day. Minorities mostly live in big cities, and the lines are often very long with wait times sometimes hours long to vote. They did it for Obama. Will they do it for Hillary? If just 3% less decide its not worth their time say hello to president Trump.

Is he taking into account an offset of Republicans not voting for Trump, or is he assuming the same number of Republicans that voted for Romney will vote for Trump, because I don't see that at all.

I know personal experience isn't really evidence, but I know a good 30-40 Republicans that I know voted for Romney have at least said out loud they refuse to vote for Trump, and I've heard nothing close to that from Democrats who say they refuse to vote for Clinton.
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13-08-2016, 01:02 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
Trump is currently polling in 4th place amongst black voters, behind Johnson and Stein. His numbers are worse than anybody since 1948 except Barry Goldwater, who opposed the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Given his unpopularity amongst Latin Americans, women, liberals and moderates you're left wondering who is voting for him.

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13-08-2016, 01:11 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(12-08-2016 11:59 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I heard Nate Silver on the radio today and he said people just don't understand how easily Trump can win. He said that if just 3% less minorities show up than 2012 then Trump wins. If just 1% more white people show up than 2012 Trump crushes her. It really comes down to voter turnout. He said excitement for Hillary among minorities could be lower than it was for Obama so they might stay home. Just because they "support" Hillary over Trump doesn't mean they leave the house on election day. Minorities mostly live in big cities, and the lines are often very long with wait times sometimes hours long to vote. They did it for Obama. Will they do it for Hillary? If just 3% less decide its not worth their time say hello to president Trump.

Sorry little pundit but your math doesn't work. According to 538, Hillary's currently leading by ~8% in the polls. A 1% increase in 70% of the voters doesn't make up for an 8% difference by an order of magnitude.

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13-08-2016, 01:38 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(13-08-2016 06:12 AM)Birdguy1979 Wrote:  If they are counting on nothing but minorities to be able to win, it means that they are buying votes using welfare and foodstamps.

Stereotype spotted ITP.
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13-08-2016, 01:41 PM (This post was last modified: 13-08-2016 01:52 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(13-08-2016 01:11 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(12-08-2016 11:59 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I heard Nate Silver on the radio today and he said people just don't understand how easily Trump can win. He said that if just 3% less minorities show up than 2012 then Trump wins. If just 1% more white people show up than 2012 Trump crushes her. It really comes down to voter turnout. He said excitement for Hillary among minorities could be lower than it was for Obama so they might stay home. Just because they "support" Hillary over Trump doesn't mean they leave the house on election day. Minorities mostly live in big cities, and the lines are often very long with wait times sometimes hours long to vote. They did it for Obama. Will they do it for Hillary? If just 3% less decide its not worth their time say hello to president Trump.

Sorry little pundit but your math doesn't work. According to 538, Hillary's currently leading by ~8% in the polls. A 1% increase in 70% of the voters doesn't make up for an 8% difference by an order of magnitude.

I'm betting 538 doesn't believe those numbers will hold up. Obama didn't even win by 8% in 2012.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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13-08-2016, 01:45 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(13-08-2016 06:12 AM)Birdguy1979 Wrote:  This is where the problem comes in. If they are counting on nothing but minorities to be able to win, it means that they are buying votes using welfare and foodstamps.

Don't forget Obama phones. .... oops, I mean Reagan phones since he started it.

#sigh
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