Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
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28-04-2016, 02:49 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't get the hate for Trump. Can anyone give a real reason without using name calling or feelings? Because I don't understand it.

I'll give it a shot.

(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Trump's fairly moderate.


No, he isn't.

(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  His tax plan helps the middle class.

I actually have little to no issue with Trump's tax plan, in theory. But those last two words are the key phrase. I very much doubt that Trump would actually follow through on this, even if he were capable of pushing such a huge reformation initiative through Congress - and that is a very, very big "if" in and of itself.

This is important to note, as it is going to be a recurring theme here. Trump is not a political animal. He is, in fact, about as far from a political animal as it is possible to get - and, despite how many Americans bitch about politics constantly, the ability to make compromises, the ability to play the game, is necessary for any one of a given candidate's promises to become reality.

Trump does not have that ability. At best, he would be completely ineffectual from a lawmaking standpoint while being a complete fiasco from a public and foreign relations one.

(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  His healthcare plan seems to go further than the ACA at least for low income folks.

This is exactly the opposite of what Trump's proposed healthcare reform would accomplish.

Trump's "plan" for healthcare is essentially to repeal Obamacare, then start heavily reducing market restrictions on insurance providers and drug companies. This is a disaster waiting to happen. Aside from his gross mischaracterization of Obamacare, which, despite Republican protests, has greatly increased the quality of medical care available to Americans pretty much across the board, we have seen time and again what lack of restriction and oversight does to markets like this. It is not pretty, and it certainly won't help anyone. The very most that Trump could hope for is to not do too much damage on this front.

(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  He's not a gun nut. He does support the 2nd amendment but he doesnt talk about it non stop like Cruz does.

He thinks that concealed carry is a right. He wants to make all states concealed carry states and force all states to recognize one another's concealed carry permits, no matter how different the states in question are with regards to screening and licensing for such a thing.

Beyond that, his response to the issues of gun control raised by opponents is essentially to say "fuck you, you're all idiots" and then ramble about just needing to fix the mental health care system as a means of reducing gun violence. No, sorry. That wouldn't work even if Trump weren't a complete idiot with no actual plan in place to fix said mental health system (and this is ignoring the fact that mental health as a field is extraordinarily difficult, and even an expert would probably find it impossible).

Believe it or not, quite a lot of Americans don't like the second amendment and see it as a rather silly holdover from the fervor of the Revolution. Personally, I am not against people being allowed to own, say, handguns for self-defense purposes, but feel that there needs to be much stricter control on the circulation of firearms within the country. For every sane, responsible gun owner, there are thirteen nutjobs who masturbate to delusions about an armed uprising.

The last thing many voters want is a loosening of gun control laws.

(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  He's not a religious nut.

This, I will agree with. Of Trump's many problems, his religious beliefs do not even break the top twenty.

(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  He's against ILLEGAL immigration and supports people coming here legally. He wants to protect us from terrorists.

And he's a fucking idiot about the ways he goes about trying to do that.

This is the big one, and the explanation is going to go on for a while, since it also ties into the main issue that your post failed to raise. Bear with me here, because this is going to be long and full of derisive comments.

Trump, to put it bluntly, is the biggest fucking moron in the world when it comes to US foreign policy and immigration. This is the reason electing him would be the worst possible thing we could do (save maybe electing Cruz, who is essentially Trump but with some political acumen and therefore the ability to actually get this terrifyingly stupid shit done).

He does not understand how foreign relations work. Point blank, period.

He is a xenophobe who has no ability to handle the relations he does not understand with the tact required of a government official at any level, let alone as the goddamned President. His infamous comments about Mexican immigrants being sent here by the government to get rid of the most dangerous criminals (which he doubles down on in his official platform) are only the most obvious indication of this.

His vitriolic obsession with illegal immigrants could be forgiven, however, if he weren't such a goddamn nut when it comes to trying to enforce it. Let us set aside, for the moment, the complete insanity of his central idea regarding building a wall with Mexico. Let us look, instead, on the other policies he has suggested, which include but are not limited to:

- Starting wars between police and gangs in order to, rather than actually break up the gangs themselves, deport illegal immigrant members of these gangs.
- Attempting to force businesses into hiring American citizens before considering employment of immigrants, legal or otherwise.
- Cutting off federal grants to cities which "refuse to cooperate with federal law enforcement", for added vague-and-spooky Orwell points.

All of the above, as well as the many, many other ridiculous ideas that Trump lists as part of his immigration platform, are completely lacking in any sort of practical consideration. Even completely ignoring the dystopian police state overtones screaming out of these things, Trump has no idea, not even the barest consideration, how impractical, expensive, and time-consuming these things would be to do.

America does need immigration reform, but that reform needs to be focused on our fundamentally broken immigration system, not on making 1984 a reality. Trump's proposed changes do nothing to actually address the problem. He is attempting to cure AIDS by attacking the infectee's genitalia with a flamethrower. His proposed changes will solve nothing, and only introduce a host of new, worse problems.

And then we come back around to the wall. Or, more generally, we come back around to Trump's complete and utter failure to grasp the way foreign relations policy, or even economics, works.

Trump wants to try and economically strong-arm China. Not to accomplish anything concrete, even. He just wants to do it, to "strengthen America's position at the bargaining table". Never mind that he can't actually tell you what America needs to be bargaining for, or why its position is so weak, or anything of that sort. Let's just declare one of our most significant trading partners a currency manipulator and try to force them into giving us free money.

And, yes, Trump wants to try to force Mexico into paying for the wall. So that's our number two and number three business partners in the world as the first targets for Trump. And, again, his central idea is to literally blackmail a foreign power into doing what he wants.

This isn't foreign policy. This is the fat kid on the playground threatening to hit you unless you give him your lunch money. It's fucking disgusting, and to be perfectly honest, I find anyone who actually supports this sort of shit to be utterly deplorable.

Trump is the most incompetent possible President we could ever elect based on this section alone. Even were I bang alongside him on literally every other issue, this would remain an insurmountable deal-breaker.

(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  He wants to stop wasteful government spending, and improve the military.

Quite a lot of people would say America already wastes far too much money on military spending. And this includes quite a lot of military personnel.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
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28-04-2016, 03:00 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 09:10 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(28-04-2016 08:52 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  This is the mentality that frightens me most by people... they've bought into this somehow because he is absolutely pandering and just doing the same. His pandering is apparently having people like this who think hes actually just a run of the mill person.

I should have been more clear. Make no mistake, I know that Trump is not like me. He's a billionaire. Narcissistic. Spolied. I meant he talks like me. He says the shit my friends and I do while we're out at the bar having some beers. He makes mistakes when he talks because he doesn't use teleprompters. He doesn't talk like a preacher like Cruz. He doesn't sound like a phony like Hillary. That's all I meant. He just sounds like a regular guy.

Unfortunately, "sounding like a regular guy" is not a qualification for the presidency. George W. Bush sounded like a regular guy, too, and he was one of the worst presidents we've ever had. I can't stand listening to Hillary Clinton talk, but she is far more qualified for the presidency than Trump is, and voting for her over Trump, despite all her faults, will be a no-brainer. I will do it with no hesitation at all.
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28-04-2016, 03:15 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 07:21 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I suspect that he is the reason Democrat turnout is down 20% and republican turnout is at record levels.

Primary turnouts aren't general election turnouts.

Trump's only hope is that Clinton is the Democrat nominee, and is subsequently indicted.

I doubt that will happen.

As for head-to-head polls being inaccurate this early, perhaps a fair point, but Trump can only do one of two things: keep running his mouth and alienate swing voters with his divisive rhetoric and blatant racism, or tone down his message and disappoint his followers who like him for his outspokenness. The former may well drive higher Democrat turnout, which will also have Congressional repercussions; the latter may well suppress Republican turnout ... and neither one will lead to his victory.

The Republicans have shit the bed.
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28-04-2016, 03:16 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 08:26 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(28-04-2016 08:18 AM)morondog Wrote:  You don't get the hate? Have you heard his quotes? The ridiculous shit he says? Any intelligent person who is *not* horrified by his bullshit has a screw loose.

I'm not offended by much. I'm not a PC pussy. I was in the Navy. He talks like the average Joe. Better than a pandering political hack. Are there any specific policy statements he's made that you are against?

I'm pretty much against racism of all stripes. That alone means I would never in my life vote for Trump.
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28-04-2016, 04:02 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
I don't expect Trump to know everything. Yes, he lacks foreign policy expertise. He's unpolished politicly. His VP pick will have to be someone with military experience or congressional experience. He cannot pick another business person or governor for VP. I suspect he'll choose a woman or minority. Like Allen West or similar. Tim Scott maybe?

Trump's appeal is mostly economic. He talks a good game about taxes, jobs and immigration. These are important topics for the lower middle class voter who happen to be majority white.

Trump has said some brash things, but none were "racist." Trump has never come out and said he hates certain races. Condemning illegals that cross the border and commit crimes is not racist. Let's be serious here. Illegal immigrants are a very small portion of the U.S. population but they account for almost 15% of all criminal sentences. That isn't racist to point it out. It's just facts. Straight from the Government Accountability Office Report:

"The number of criminal aliens in federal prisons in fiscal year 2010 was about 55,000, and the number of SCAAP criminal alien incarcerations in state prison systems and local jails was about 296,000 in fiscal year 2009 (the most recent data available), and the majority were from Mexico."

In Texas alone, between 2008 and 2014, illegals committed over 600,000 crimes, including 3000 homicides and thousands of sexual assaults.

Someone needs to stop that shit, and Trump is the only one that even talks about it. Guess they don't want to get called racist by the PC police.

It's time to fix these problems. Our elected leaders have failed repeatedly. We have 95 million Americans out of work. 50 million on food stamps. The highest debt ever. ISIS threatening to attack us on our own soil.

Time to let a non politician give it a shot. Deport these criminals. Build the wall. Punish them harshly if they come back.

It's time.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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28-04-2016, 04:25 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 04:02 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Trump has said some brash things, but none were "racist." Trump has never come out and said he hates certain races.

Such an explicit expression is not necessary for racism to be noted. "Niggers are dumb" is certainly a racist statement, but nowhere in there will you find an expression of dislike.

But to soothe your injured fanboi-ism, we'll drop "racism" and use the word "bigot" instead.

If you have the time, read this and chase down the links.
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28-04-2016, 04:27 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 04:02 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Time to let a non politician give it a shot.

A non-politician who will accomplish absolutely nothing unless he can work with politicians (i.e., Congress). Trump has shown no sign of any such ability. He has always been a dictator who gets to call the shots. If you don't like it, "You're fired!" Well, the presidency is not a dictatorship, and he can't fire Congress. He will have to work with them. Good luck with that.
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28-04-2016, 04:36 PM (This post was last modified: 28-04-2016 04:43 PM by Unbeliever.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 04:02 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Yes, he lacks foreign policy expertise.

This is the understatement of the century.

Trump does not simply lack experience in foreign policy. Literally every idea he has about the field is so jaw-droppingly, unbelievably wrong, so impossibly incapable of ever even beginning to go right in a sane person's mind, that it's absolutely ludicrous.

Trump does not lack foreign policy ability. He has negative amounts of it.

And, as mentioned with his ideas for "reforming" the immigration system, he has no problem-solving ability, either. He almost never correctly identifies the actual issue (pointing at insufficient punishments for illegal immigrants rather than a broken immigration system, problems in the mental health care industry as the reason for gun violence, et cetera), and the solutions he comes up with are impossible to implement at best. More commonly, they will cause more harm than the problems they claim to address.

In the scattered cases where Trump actually picks up on an issue that needs addressing and comes up with a plan that, while not particularly brilliant, is at least not actively damaging, he lacks the political skill or planning ability to implement it.

Nothing good could come out of electing Trump. Nothing. The absolute best-case scenario for a Trump presidency is that he locks himself in the Oval Office, speaks to no one, and concentrates on doing nothing at all, because anything he does try to do will either be a waste of time or cause active harm.

(28-04-2016 04:02 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Trump's appeal is mostly economic. He talks a good game about taxes, jobs and immigration.

No, he doesn't. The only people who think this are the people who haven't actually put any thought into if, or how, any of Trump's economic ideas would actually work.

Trump wants to attempt literal blackmail on two of America's largest economic investments. He wants to force American businesses to limit their hiring pools, and actively punish those who hire immigrants. He wants to try and implement laws that will force companies with foreign investments to move these to America.

None of these things will work.

Trump says "I will create jobs, enable American businesses to grow, and cut taxes for the middle class". Of all those things, the only one that Trump might be able to do is the last, and that's just because his "outline" for tax reform is so lacking in detail that he would be forced to hand the project over to someone who might now what in the fuck they're actually doing.

Trump's greatest drawback is his foreign policy and views on immigration, but that doesn't make his economic ideas any less horrifyingly stupid.

(28-04-2016 04:02 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Trump has said some brash things, but none were "racist." Trump has never come out and said he hates certain races. Condemning illegals that cross the border and commit crimes is not racist.

He didn't just condemn the illegals. He literally condemned the entire country of Mexico.

And you will notice the use of the word "xenophobic" over "racist" in my posts.

(28-04-2016 04:02 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  It's time to fix these problems. Our elected leaders have failed repeatedly. We have 95 million Americans out of work. 50 million on food stamps. The highest debt ever.

Trump will solve none of these issues.

(28-04-2016 04:02 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  ISIS threatening to attack us on our own soil.

And utterly lacking in any capacity to actually do that beyond isolated incidents of terrorism, which are already being actively worked against.

"Owl," said Rabbit shortly, "you and I have brains. The others have fluff. If there is any thinking to be done in this Forest - and when I say thinking I mean thinking - you and I must do it."
- A. A. Milne, The House at Pooh Corner
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28-04-2016, 05:08 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
Well we'll see what happens. Hillary leads in the polls for now but who knows what will happen after the nominees are known for sure and the Cruz voters calm down. Democratic strategist Dave Saunders said yesterday that he thinks Trump will beat Hillary like a baby seal, mostly because working class whites are jumping ship. He thinks at least some of the Sanders supporters will switch to Trump and the rest of them, the younger crowd, won't even show up to vote.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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28-04-2016, 05:19 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(28-04-2016 05:08 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Well we'll see what happens. Hillary leads in the polls for now but who knows what will happen after the nominees are known for sure and the Cruz voters calm down. Democratic strategist Dave Saunders said yesterday that he thinks Trump will beat Hillary like a baby seal, mostly because working class whites are jumping ship. He thinks at least some of the Sanders supporters will switch to Trump and the rest of them, the younger crowd, won't even show up to vote.

I am very curious how Nate Silver is gonna handle this general election. Dude is smart as all fuck. I wanna see how he accommodates Trump as a statistical anomaly or outlier.

#sigh
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