Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
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07-10-2016, 10:29 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 02:42 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  538's now-cast has Hillary at nearly 7:1 now. Stick a fork in it, it's done.

I don't believe it. I actually had to stare at the map for 10 minutes. Arizona in blue?

I just moved here in June. Do I really have to pack up and move to Texas? Can't go back to Florida, that's blue too.

Or are these polls just completely that far off the mark? Because I haven't seen one Hillary bumber sticker or yard sign or met a Hillary supporter here in Phoenix yet. Must be those Tucson liberals a few hours south.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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07-10-2016, 11:04 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 10:29 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(07-10-2016 02:42 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  538's now-cast has Hillary at nearly 7:1 now. Stick a fork in it, it's done.

I don't believe it. I actually had to stare at the map for 10 minutes. Arizona in blue?

I just moved here in June. Do I really have to pack up and move to Texas? Can't go back to Florida, that's blue too.

Or are these polls just completely that far off the mark? Because I haven't seen one Hillary bumber sticker or yard sign or met a Hillary supporter here in Phoenix yet. Must be those Tucson liberals a few hours south.

The Clinton/Trump yard sign and bumper stickers where I am are on a ratio of maybe 1:10 (ten times more Trump), maybe it’s the same where you live.

I attribute this to the following:

1. Democrats don’t want to have their property vandalized
2. Democrats are bidding their time waiting for November 8th to give the Republicans a big giant middle finger at the poling booths.
3. Democrats aren’t as rabid because they know their candidate has the lead and it isn’t necessary to rally the troops by defacing their cars or front yards.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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07-10-2016, 11:12 AM (This post was last modified: 07-10-2016 11:36 AM by Dom.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
Signs in my neck of the woods:

Clinton - 0
Trump - 0
Fresh tomatoes - 3
Fresh eggs - 1
honey - 1
apples - 1
For sale - 9
Chainsaws sharpened here - 1

P.S. I forgot about the free manure sign. Smile

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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07-10-2016, 11:14 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 11:04 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(07-10-2016 10:29 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't believe it. I actually had to stare at the map for 10 minutes. Arizona in blue?

I just moved here in June. Do I really have to pack up and move to Texas? Can't go back to Florida, that's blue too.

Or are these polls just completely that far off the mark? Because I haven't seen one Hillary bumber sticker or yard sign or met a Hillary supporter here in Phoenix yet. Must be those Tucson liberals a few hours south.

The Clinton/Trump yard sign and bumper stickers where I am are on a ratio of maybe 1:10 (ten times more Trump), maybe it’s the same where you live.

I attribute this to the following:

1. Democrats don’t want to have their property vandalized
2. Democrats are bidding their time waiting for November 8th to give the Republicans a big giant middle finger at the poling booths.
3. Democrats aren’t as rabid because they know their candidate has the lead and it isn’t necessary to rally the troops by defacing their cars or front yards.

All very possible. She's poised for a huge victory if the polls are correct. I still think it comes down to turnout. That's why the 538 nowcast doesn't have Trump at 0%. It uses simulations. In 10,000 simulations Trump wins 13% of them. She can lead in all of the polls, but if people see her lead and figure she has it in the bag, then stay home playing video games like 2000 and 2004 then she will lose. She will need to keep people motivated and awake on November 8th.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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07-10-2016, 11:58 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 10:29 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't believe it. I actually had to stare at the map for 10 minutes. Arizona in blue?
...
Must be those Tucson liberals a few hours south.

Might be that 22% of eligible voters in AZ are rapists and criminals.

#sigh
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07-10-2016, 12:13 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
This just in...

Trump Warns Immigrants Are Pouring Into the U.S. to Vote

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...-s-to-vote

“Immigrants are coming over the U.S.-Mexico border to vote in the American election, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Friday.

“They’re letting people pour into the country so they can go and vote,” Trump said at a roundtable meeting at Trump Tower in New York with members of the National Border Patrol Council. “You hear a thing like that and it’s a disgrace.”

It was the latest example of Trump warning the election will be “rigged,” a charge he tends to launch more frequently when polls show him losing ground against Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton, who has led for most of the race. Under U.S. law, only American citizens may vote; undocumented immigrants may not.”

This rigged narrative is going to incite violence and get people killed. Angry

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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07-10-2016, 12:22 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 11:12 AM)Dom Wrote:  Signs in my neck of the woods:

Only signs in my area look like this.
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#sigh
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07-10-2016, 01:29 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 12:13 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  This rigged narrative is going to incite violence and get people killed. Angry
Well, to be fair, there have been a ton of reports about voter fraud occurring in various states these past couple of weeks. They even discovered 19 dead people being registered to vote.

http://www.wnd.com/2016/10/voter-fraud-m...nsylvania/
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016...ening-now/
http://progressillinois.com/news/content...oter-fraud
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christinero...d-n2228876
http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/kan...legations/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/edu...story.html

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07-10-2016, 01:45 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 01:29 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(07-10-2016 12:13 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  This rigged narrative is going to incite violence and get people killed. Angry
Well, to be fair, there have been a ton of reports about voter fraud occurring in various states these past couple of weeks. They even discovered 19 dead people being registered to vote.

http://www.wnd.com/2016/10/voter-fraud-m...nsylvania/
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016...ening-now/
http://progressillinois.com/news/content...oter-fraud
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christinero...d-n2228876
http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/kan...legations/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/edu...story.html

How does one arrive at the conclusion that the election is rigged against Trump from those stories?

We have to remember that what we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning ~ Werner Heisenberg
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07-10-2016, 01:54 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(07-10-2016 01:45 PM)tomilay Wrote:  How does one arrive at the conclusion that the election is rigged against Trump from those stories?
Exhibit A:

"The Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s Office said it opened the voter fraud investigation in response to allegations that 'gifts' were given to voters in exchange for a vote for Democratic state Rep. Kate Cloonen, presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, and 'others.'''
Source: http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/kan...legations/

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