Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
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04-03-2016, 09:07 AM (This post was last modified: 04-03-2016 09:15 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
The main problem the Democrats have is turnout. Republican primary turnout is up 50%-100% depending on the state. Democrat turnout is down 30%. Polls might show Hillary beating so and so, but if the voters stay home playing video games, or the Bernie supporters go to Trump like some of the interviews I've seen, this won't be close. Primary turnout is a huge indicator of who wins the election. Republicans are motivated right now. Democrats are staying home. Almost 4 million more votes have been cast for republicans this primary season than for democrats. That should worry Democrats more than anything.

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04-03-2016, 09:15 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 09:07 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The main problem the Democrats have is turnout. Republican primary turnout is up 50%-100% depending on the state. Democrat turnout is down 30%. Polls might show Hillary beating so and so, but if the voters stay home playing video games, or the Bernie supporters go to Trump like some of the interviews I've seen, this won't be close. Primary turnout is a huge indicator of who wins the election. Republicans are motivated right now. Democrats are staying home.

The thing is that these are primary turnouts, which means that you're comparing apples and oranges. Do you have any numbers on your point about primary turnout?

If Trump is the nominee, I think you'll see higher Democrat numbers in the fall.
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04-03-2016, 09:30 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 09:07 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The main problem the Democrats have is turnout. Republican primary turnout is up 50%-100% depending on the state. Democrat turnout is down 30%. Polls might show Hillary beating so and so, but if the voters stay home playing video games, or the Bernie supporters go to Trump like some of the interviews I've seen, this won't be close. Primary turnout is a huge indicator of who wins the election. Republicans are motivated right now. Democrats are staying home. Almost 4 million more votes have been cast for republicans this primary season than for democrats. That should worry Democrats more than anything.

That's literally the norm for responding to the group of the party that had the presidency. Even when it's now a new candidate, each time there is generally more primary vibes in the other side. 88 had tons of anti-reagan boost & 08 had tons of anti-bush + obama drawing in boost.

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04-03-2016, 09:43 AM (This post was last modified: 04-03-2016 09:59 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 09:15 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 09:07 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The main problem the Democrats have is turnout. Republican primary turnout is up 50%-100% depending on the state. Democrat turnout is down 30%. Polls might show Hillary beating so and so, but if the voters stay home playing video games, or the Bernie supporters go to Trump like some of the interviews I've seen, this won't be close. Primary turnout is a huge indicator of who wins the election. Republicans are motivated right now. Democrats are staying home.

The thing is that these are primary turnouts, which means that you're comparing apples and oranges. Do you have any numbers on your point about primary turnout?

If Trump is the nominee, I think you'll see higher Democrat numbers in the fall.

Since 1992 and the current primary system (not counting reelection years where the sitting party doesn't hold a primary) the party with highest turnout has won the presidency every time. All numbers are from realclearpolitics.com

1992 Primary Election
Democrats 20,239,385
Republicans 12,696, 547

General Election winner: Bill Clinton

-------------------

2000 Primary Election
Democrats 14,045,745
Republicans 17,156,117

General Election winner: George Bush

--------------------

2008 Primary Election
Democrats 35,915,549
Republicans 21,185,030

General Election winner: Barrack Obama

----------------------

It's a small sample size, but it shows a pattern. The party with the higher primary turnout wins the general election.

So far, the republicans are winning the primary voter count. That could change once they get into more liberal states. But the indicators are that democratic voter turnout in states so far is down 30%. Republicans are excited and motivated. Sanders has some strong support from younger people, but they don't appear to be showing up to vote as usual. Clinton will need those young Bernie supporters to show up for her in order for her to win. I think she's in trouble.

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04-03-2016, 09:53 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
Yes but in 88 that wasn't the case as more dems were in the primary vote and lost....

It's not a large sample here even most websites talking about it point out. It's hard to discern when these data points would mean something because this is basically only a rare after 8 term presidential point mattering.

why the hell would 1992 matter, why would there of been a large Republican Primary push.. there wasn't because the sitting president was in charge just like in 2012/2004/96. Those aren't really useful points of data. The 8 million people difference of 92 is rather worthless as a stopping data point.

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04-03-2016, 09:55 AM (This post was last modified: 04-03-2016 09:59 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 09:53 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  Yes but in 88 that wasn't the case as more dems were in the primary vote and lost....

It's not a large sample here even most websites talking about it point out. It's hard to discern when these data points would mean something because this is basically only a rare after 8 term presidential point mattering.

why the hell would 1992 matter, why would there of been a large Republican Primary push.. there wasn't because the sitting president was in charge just like in 2012/2004/96. Those aren't really useful points of data. The 8 million people difference of 92 is rather worthless as a stopping data point.
Edit: Although they had a sitting president, they had a major challenger and a primary, which was unusual.

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04-03-2016, 10:01 AM (This post was last modified: 04-03-2016 10:04 AM by ClydeLee.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 09:55 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 09:53 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  Yes but in 88 that wasn't the case as more dems were in the primary vote and lost....

It's not a large sample here even most websites talking about it point out. It's hard to discern when these data points would mean something because this is basically only a rare after 8 term presidential point mattering.

why the hell would 1992 matter, why would there of been a large Republican Primary push.. there wasn't because the sitting president was in charge just like in 2012/2004/96. Those aren't really useful points of data. The 8 million people difference of 92 is rather worthless as a stopping data point.

What? 1992 does matter. That was the first year of Clinton. He wasn't up for reelection until 1996. I left out all of the reelection races. Although they had a sitting president, they had a major challenger.

That was for Bush.

There isn't usually a large turnout for the primary of the party with the sitting president. There's more to vote on sure, but so many are only motivated when it's an open presidential candidate choice in primaries.

But still, 88 is just as more likely to be relevant than a 92 data point. In 88 the dems had like 10 million more votes in those primaries.

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04-03-2016, 10:03 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 09:07 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The main problem the Democrats have is turnout. Republican primary turnout is up 50%-100% depending on the state. Democrat turnout is down 30%. Polls might show Hillary beating so and so, but if the voters stay home playing video games, or the Bernie supporters go to Trump like some of the interviews I've seen, this won't be close. Primary turnout is a huge indicator of who wins the election. Republicans are motivated right now. Democrats are staying home. Almost 4 million more votes have been cast for republicans this primary season than for democrats. That should worry Democrats more than anything.

If the Republican Congress continues to stall on confirming a Supreme Court justice, I predict a huge Democratic turnout in November. The Republicans could lose control of the Senate as well as the Presidency. They are really shooting themselves in the foot by being so obstinate about the Court.
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04-03-2016, 10:03 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 10:01 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 09:55 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  What? 1992 does matter. That was the first year of Clinton. He wasn't up for reelection until 1996. I left out all of the reelection races. Although they had a sitting president, they had a major challenger.

That was for Bush.

There isn't usually a large turnout for the primary of the party with the sitting president. There's more to vote on sure, but so many are only motivated when it's an open presidential candidate choice in primaries.

But still, 88 is just as more likely to be relevant than a 92 data point.

Yes, I already corrected my post, as I forgot to add that the republicans held a primary that year, because the sitting president had major challengers. They normally don't have primaries for the sitting president, but they did that election.

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04-03-2016, 10:06 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 10:03 AM)Grasshopper Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 09:07 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  The main problem the Democrats have is turnout. Republican primary turnout is up 50%-100% depending on the state. Democrat turnout is down 30%. Polls might show Hillary beating so and so, but if the voters stay home playing video games, or the Bernie supporters go to Trump like some of the interviews I've seen, this won't be close. Primary turnout is a huge indicator of who wins the election. Republicans are motivated right now. Democrats are staying home. Almost 4 million more votes have been cast for republicans this primary season than for democrats. That should worry Democrats more than anything.

If the Republican Congress continues to stall on confirming a Supreme Court justice, I predict a huge Democratic turnout in November. The Republicans could lose control of the Senate as well as the Presidency. They are really shooting themselves in the foot by being so obstinate about the Court.

I disagree. The people gave a majority to the republicans for a reason. To stop Obama.

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