Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
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04-03-2016, 04:48 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 04:37 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  So who do we think Trump's choice of VP might be?
My bet is on Jim Webb or John Kasich. Trump is already predicted to receive a significant number of cross-over votes in the general election (against Hillary Clinton) as it is, but it can't hurt to have a more moderate, less controversial running mate to pull in even more Independent and Democrat voters. Trump has been very presidential in a few press conferences and interviews I've watched; hopefully he'll conduct himself like that more frequently once the GOP and the entire mainstream media on both sides of the political spectrum tone down their attacks towards him. He'll be under constant attack until at least March 15. If he wins both Florida (leading by 20%) and Ohio (slightly ahead of Kasich), the GOP will most likely give up their hopes for a brokered convention. It won't happen at that point.

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04-03-2016, 05:16 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 02:22 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 02:05 PM)Dom Wrote:  Don't underestimate older people. We have better health support than previous generations and last longer in better shape.

I'm not - nobody in bad health would be running for president! But going blindly by actuarial tables there's a 20%+ chance at least one of them's dead in five years.
(the appropriate weighting for their presumed excellent access to healthcare and their respective personal and family histories notwithstanding)

But is that 20% for the general public?
What about for a healthy rich white male?

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04-03-2016, 07:00 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 04:48 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 04:37 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  So who do we think Trump's choice of VP might be?
My bet is on Jim Webb or John Kasich. Trump is already predicted to receive a significant number of cross-over votes in the general election (against Hillary Clinton) as it is, but it can't hurt to have a more moderate, less controversial running mate to pull in even more Independent and Democrat voters. Trump has been very presidential in a few press conferences and interviews I've watched; hopefully he'll conduct himself like that more frequently once the GOP and the entire mainstream media on both sides of the political spectrum tone down their attacks towards him. He'll be under constant attack until at least March 15. If he wins both Florida (leading by 20%) and Ohio (slightly ahead of Kasich), the GOP will most likely give up their hopes for a brokered convention. It won't happen at that point.

If Kasich don't end up the nominee the GOP has gone the way of the Whigs.

#sigh
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04-03-2016, 10:01 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 04:48 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 04:37 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  So who do we think Trump's choice of VP might be?
My bet is on Jim Webb or John Kasich. Trump is already predicted to receive a significant number of cross-over votes in the general election (against Hillary Clinton)

By whom? Molyneux?

Quote:as it is, but it can't hurt to have a more moderate, less controversial running mate to pull in even more Independent and Democrat voters. Trump has been very presidential in a few press conferences and interviews I've watched;

You are really going to need to provide evidence of that because he has been a buffoon in every one I've seen.

Quote: hopefully he'll conduct himself like that more frequently once the GOP and the entire mainstream media on both sides of the political spectrum tone down their attacks towards him.

Oh, poor Trumpy. He invites and deserves the criticisms.

Quote:He'll be under constant attack until at least March 15. If he wins both Florida (leading by 20%) and Ohio (slightly ahead of Kasich), the GOP will most likely give up their hopes for a brokered convention. It won't happen at that point.

He has nowhere near enough support to win the nomination outright. He has not won a majority in one single primary.

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Science is not a subject, but a method.
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04-03-2016, 10:05 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 07:00 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 04:48 PM)Vosur Wrote:  My bet is on Jim Webb or John Kasich. Trump is already predicted to receive a significant number of cross-over votes in the general election (against Hillary Clinton) as it is, but it can't hurt to have a more moderate, less controversial running mate to pull in even more Independent and Democrat voters. Trump has been very presidential in a few press conferences and interviews I've watched; hopefully he'll conduct himself like that more frequently once the GOP and the entire mainstream media on both sides of the political spectrum tone down their attacks towards him. He'll be under constant attack until at least March 15. If he wins both Florida (leading by 20%) and Ohio (slightly ahead of Kasich), the GOP will most likely give up their hopes for a brokered convention. It won't happen at that point.

If Kasich don't end up the nominee the GOP has gone the way of the Whigs.

Unless there is a "draft Paul Ryan" movement at the convention, in a last ditch attempt to save the party.

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04-03-2016, 10:50 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 04:48 PM)Vosur Wrote:  ... Trump has been very presidential in a few press conferences and interviews I've watched; hopefully he'll conduct himself like that more frequently ...

In the eye of the beholder. But your sentence gives away the game: even YOU don't find Trump naturally presidential. A presidential demeanor should be something you have BEFORE seeking such an office; indeed, having a naturally presidential demeanor is, in something so public as representing a sovereign nation, probably in the top three of essential qualifications (one of the others being not vapid, a qualification Trump also flunks outright).

That even you find Trump hard to stomach (while redeeming you somewhat) should be blinking at you like a bright red warning light, not the green glow of proper system function.
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04-03-2016, 10:58 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
So Trump said, during a debate, that he has an adequate sized penis.
He 'assured' the public that everything was perfectly alright in that department.

That's right America, you're soon to be President assured the public that he has a decent sized penis.
You let again have a lying President (even though he's not President yet).

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04-03-2016, 11:09 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 04:37 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  So who do we think Trump's choice of VP might be?

Sarah Palin. There is no other choice. Laugh out load

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04-03-2016, 11:37 PM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 09:43 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 09:15 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  The thing is that these are primary turnouts, which means that you're comparing apples and oranges. Do you have any numbers on your point about primary turnout?

If Trump is the nominee, I think you'll see higher Democrat numbers in the fall.

Since 1992 and the current primary system (not counting reelection years where the sitting party doesn't hold a primary) the party with highest turnout has won the presidency every time. All numbers are from realclearpolitics.com

1992 Primary Election
Democrats 20,239,385
Republicans 12,696, 547

General Election winner: Bill Clinton

-------------------

2000 Primary Election
Democrats 14,045,745
Republicans 17,156,117

General Election winner: George Bush

--------------------

2008 Primary Election
Democrats 35,915,549
Republicans 21,185,030

General Election winner: Barrack Obama

----------------------

It's a small sample size, but it shows a pattern. The party with the higher primary turnout wins the general election.

So far, the republicans are winning the primary voter count. That could change once they get into more liberal states. But the indicators are that democratic voter turnout in states so far is down 30%. Republicans are excited and motivated. Sanders has some strong support from younger people, but they don't appear to be showing up to vote as usual. Clinton will need those young Bernie supporters to show up for her in order for her to win. I think she's in trouble.

I think that one factor in that information that isn't accounted for is Trump. Only in 92 did you have another bull-in-the-china-shop with Perot. The other elections had no one on the losing side who energized the primary voters. But as we've seen in the last couple of days, the Republican Establishment is ready to fight a bloody battle to keep Trump away from their nomination.

I don't mind that, myself. A brokered convention that enshrines Trump as the nominee ensures another four years of non-Republican mismanagement. A brokered convention that sees Trump invalidated may perhaps see Trump running as an independent (I doubt this, he's not that stupid), or it will see the Republicans seriously weakened if not split when the TPers/fad independents who are supporting Trump realize that the big money bought their chance at the brass ring too.

While Trump is driving primary turnout right now, he is doing long-term and significant damage to the party whose nomination he seeks. And like any other polarizing figure, he might have a high floor, but he has a low ceiling. He's alienated Latinos, blacks were already in Clinton's pocket, ditto women (for the most part), and the same source you cite for your primary results shows shows Clinton ahead in four out of five polls, and averaging a 3.4% lead.

The Republican primaries are seeing high turnout not because a majority of people want Trump, but because infighting is getting precinct captains mobilizing cadres in order to support or defeat Trump. For all his bluster, Trump only has a little more than a quarter of the delegates needed to secure the nomination. Cruz has about 20%. It's not a blow-out race, and that means that the Republican primaries are going to see high turnouts. But I don't think that means that you'll see that carry over to the fall campaign.

I could be wrong, lord knows I've called this stuff wrong before, but I think this year's turnout is not a function of Republican enthusiasm, but rather of Republican divisiveness.
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05-03-2016, 12:12 AM (This post was last modified: 05-03-2016 12:17 AM by Thumpalumpacus.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 04:26 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  Turns out (and the military went nuts over it today), if Trump orders something illegal, the military MUST resign rather than perform an illegal act.

It's true, on paper. However, look at how many soldiers were prosecuted by the military for refusing orders to Iraq.

(04-03-2016 11:09 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 04:37 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  So who do we think Trump's choice of VP might be?

Sarah Palin. There is no other choice. Laugh out load

That's right -- Dumb and Dumber.
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