Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 1 Votes - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
05-03-2016, 12:22 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 04:48 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 04:37 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  So who do we think Trump's choice of VP might be?
My bet is on Jim Webb or John Kasich. Trump is already predicted to receive a significant number of cross-over votes in the general election (against Hillary Clinton) as it is, but it can't hurt to have a more moderate, less controversial running mate to pull in even more Independent and Democrat voters. Trump has been very presidential in a few press conferences and interviews I've watched; hopefully he'll conduct himself like that more frequently once the GOP and the entire mainstream media on both sides of the political spectrum tone down their attacks towards him. He'll be under constant attack until at least March 15. If he wins both Florida (leading by 20%) and Ohio (slightly ahead of Kasich), the GOP will most likely give up their hopes for a brokered convention. It won't happen at that point.

My sense of it is that Kasich wouldn't accept the VP on that ticket, but even if he did, I don't think his presence on the ticket will pull many votes in that aren't already there. Most folks who would consider voting for Kasich (and I'm one of them) still think that Trump is a baboon (and he is one of them).
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
05-03-2016, 06:51 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 10:01 PM)Chas Wrote:  By whom? Molyneux?
MercuryAnalytics is one example.

(04-03-2016 10:01 PM)Chas Wrote:  You are really going to need to provide evidence of that because he has been a buffoon in every one I've seen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQWXaH4kTs8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rksd80-FCAw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JEhHvnGRNQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUpabQGL_KA

(04-03-2016 10:01 PM)Chas Wrote:  He has nowhere near enough support to win the nomination outright. He has not won a majority in one single primary.
That's true, but to be fair, it's very difficult to win a majority of the votes when you're running against half a dozen other candidates (Even so he came very close in Massachusetts with 49.3%). Having said that, he only needs to win a plurality of the votes to win the nomination since there are several winner-takes-all states with a large number of delegates in the Republican race (e.g. Florida and Ohio). According to Nate Silver's prediction model, Trump has reached 114% of his target goals for the nomination while Cruz and Rubio only hit 61% and 46% of their goals respectively. He's leading the competition by 10-20% in the polls in most of the upcoming states so I think he'll be fine.

[Image: 7oDSbD4.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
05-03-2016, 07:17 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 11:09 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 04:37 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  So who do we think Trump's choice of VP might be?

Sarah Palin. There is no other choice. Laugh out load

I'm thinking Gordon Ramsay. Consider

He has the temperament.

And the hair.

[Image: 0626_celeb100-gordon-ramsay-1_1200x675.jpg]

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
[Image: flagstiny%206.gif]
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 5 users Like Chas's post
05-03-2016, 07:26 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(05-03-2016 06:51 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 10:01 PM)Chas Wrote:  By whom? Molyneux?
MercuryAnalytics is one example.

Neither the polling questions, sample population, nor actual results are presented.
Not particularly convincing.

Quote:
(04-03-2016 10:01 PM)Chas Wrote:  You are really going to need to provide evidence of that because he has been a buffoon in every one I've seen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQWXaH4kTs8

On Letterman nearly thirty years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI

On Oprah nearly thirty years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rksd80-FCAw

Nearly twenty-five years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JEhHvnGRNQ

On Letterman nearly twenty years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUpabQGL_KA

On Letterman over five years ago. That's marginally better, but still...

Quote:
(04-03-2016 10:01 PM)Chas Wrote:  He has nowhere near enough support to win the nomination outright. He has not won a majority in one single primary.
That's true, but to be fair, it's very difficult to win a majority of the votes when you're running against half a dozen other candidates (Even so he came very close in Massachusetts with 49.3%). Having said that, he only needs to win a plurality of the votes to win the nomination since there are several winner-takes-all states with a large number of delegates in the Republican race (e.g. Florida and Ohio). According to Nate Silver's prediction model, Trump has reached 114% of his target goals for the nomination while Cruz and Rubio only hit 61% and 46% of their goals respectively. He's leading the competition by 10-20% in the polls in most of the upcoming states so I think he'll be fine.

He'll never be 'fine'.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
[Image: flagstiny%206.gif]
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Chas's post
05-03-2016, 07:44 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-03-2016 10:33 PM)CleverUsername Wrote:  But...I hate Clinton, too. Sad

You know what I hate? Hate! I cannot stand hate. I hate everything about it!
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes DerFish's post
05-03-2016, 07:45 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(05-03-2016 07:26 AM)Chas Wrote:  Neither the polling questions, sample population, nor actual results are presented.
Not particularly convincing.
Did we read the same article?

Polling questions:
They aren't explicitly stated, that's true, but you can infer them from the rest of the article, e.g. "Additionally when crossover voters were asked how sure of their votes they were [...]" would translate to something along the lines of "How sure are you of your choice to vote for Trump over Hillary (or vice versa)?"

Sample population:
"Mercury Analytics [...] conducted a survey [...] among a national sample of n=916 'likely voters.'"

Results:
"Almost 20% of likely Democratic voters would today cross parties and vote for Donald Trump, while only 14% of Republicans would cross parties to vote for Hillary Clinton."

"Additionally when crossover voters were asked how sure of their votes they were, 63% of Democrats who would crossover to vote for Mr. Trump today were '100% Sure' of their vote while only 39% of Republicans who would crossover to vote for Ms. Clinton today were '100% Sure', demonstrating that potential Republican defectors to Hillary are significantly less sure of their intention versus Democratic defectors."

"Nearly a quarter (25%) of Democrats 'agree completely' that the ad raised some good points; nearly half (44%) of Democrats agree 'completely' or 'somewhat'.
And 21% of Democrats 'agree completely' that the ad represents 'how I feel'; nearly one-third (32%) of Democrats agree 'completely' or 'somewhat.'"

(05-03-2016 07:26 AM)Chas Wrote:  
Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQWXaH4kTs8

On Letterman nearly thirty years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI

On Oprah nearly thirty years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rksd80-FCAw

Nearly twenty-five years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JEhHvnGRNQ

On Letterman nearly twenty years ago. Are you even trying?

Quote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUpabQGL_KA

On Letterman over five years ago. That's marginally better, but still...
But still what? You wanted evidence that Trump can be or has been presidential and I delivered just that. You never specified a timeframe. Tongue

[Image: 7oDSbD4.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Vosur's post
05-03-2016, 07:51 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(04-03-2016 10:03 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 10:01 AM)ClydeLee Wrote:  That was for Bush.

There isn't usually a large turnout for the primary of the party with the sitting president. There's more to vote on sure, but so many are only motivated when it's an open presidential candidate choice in primaries.

But still, 88 is just as more likely to be relevant than a 92 data point.

Yes, I already corrected my post, as I forgot to add that the republicans held a primary that year, because the sitting president had major challengers. They normally don't have primaries for the sitting president, but they did that election.

I am not real deep into politics, so will ask for a clarification. What year was there not primaries for the president's party? My memory says that the state caucuses and primaries are always going on.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
05-03-2016, 09:20 AM (This post was last modified: 05-03-2016 09:25 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(05-03-2016 07:51 AM)DerFish Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 10:03 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Yes, I already corrected my post, as I forgot to add that the republicans held a primary that year, because the sitting president had major challengers. They normally don't have primaries for the sitting president, but they did that election.

I am not real deep into politics, so will ask for a clarification. What year was there not primaries for the president's party? My memory says that the state caucuses and primaries are always going on.

Very rare to have a primary for a sitting president. Its very rare for a sitting president to be challenged by his own party. So they do not have primaries during those years generally. They will still have primaries for the other party so maybe thats what you're thinking of. I know it happened a few times way back, and Reagan tried in 1976 to challenge the sitting president Gerald Ford and Pat Buchanan tried in 1992 to challenge George H.W. Bush. There hasn't been a primary for a sitting president since. They always fail so it's a waste of time and resources.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
[Image: 25397spaceballs.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
06-03-2016, 05:42 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(05-03-2016 07:17 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(04-03-2016 11:09 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  Sarah Palin. There is no other choice. Laugh out load

I'm thinking Gordon Ramsay. Consider

He has the temperament.

And the hair.

[Image: 0626_celeb100-gordon-ramsay-1_1200x675.jpg]

Ya know what, I think Gordon Ramsay wouldn't be half bad.
At least he can run a successful business (unlike Trump) and he's a big family guy who seems like a genuine decent person.

I think all the yelling is mostly just for show, plus he only yells if you deserve to be yelled at.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes earmuffs's post
06-03-2016, 11:28 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-03-2016 09:44 PM)Airportkid Wrote:  Hence while Trump may emerge as the Republican nominee, I think his chances in the general are less sanguine by significant degree.

I would agree with you, then again several months ago I would have agreed with a variety of predictions that suggested that Trump wouldn't win the primary. It's been a fairly unpredictable election cycle, and who knows what transpires between now and election day. Perhaps a third party candidate like Bloomberg throws his hat in syphoning votes from Hillary, allowing Trump to squeak on by. Perhaps Hillary suffers a devastating blunder.

If all the factors in consideration now remain constant throughout the election cycle, we could believe with confidence that Trump won't make it to the white house, but these factors seem to be fluctuating a great deal with the Trump factor.

"Tell me, muse, of the storyteller who has been thrust to the edge of the world, both an infant and an ancient, and through him reveal everyman." ---Homer the aged poet.

"In Him was life, and the life was the Light of men. The Light shines in the darkness, and the darkness did not comprehend it."
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: