Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
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03-08-2016, 07:58 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-08-2016 05:54 AM)Birdguy1979 Wrote:  I have to disagree. I think he is going to get in. All the people I personally know in real life and all the people I deal with at work (customers and employees) are voting for Trump.

Sorry, but I'll have to call you out on this claim that all the people you're acquainted with will be voting for Drumpf.

This is a type of unwitting confirmatory bias known as selective thinking.

A[nother] study of biased interpretation occurred during the 2004 US presidential election... involving[ed] participants who reported having strong feelings about the candidates. They were shown apparently contradictory pairs of statements, either from Republican candidate George W Bush, Democratic candidate John Kerry, or a politically neutral public figure. They were also given further statements that made the apparent contradiction seem reasonable. From these three pieces of information, they had to decide whether or not each individual's statements were inconsistent. There were strong differences in these evaluations, with participants much more likely to interpret statements from the candidate they opposed as contradictory.
Westen, Drew; et al, "Neural Bases of Motivated Reasoning: An fMRI Study of Emotional Constraints on Partisan Political Judgment in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election"

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03-08-2016, 08:26 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
Got an email from our local republican comitee. Looks like the game plan is for down ticket republicans to distance themselves from Trump. Hold the house and senate until 2020. Hillary will win, but if they hold the senate she's a lame duck. No supreme court appointments. No new laws passed.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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03-08-2016, 08:41 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-08-2016 08:26 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Got an email from our local republican comitee. Looks like the game plan is for down ticket republicans to distance themselves from Trump. Hold the house and senate until 2020. Hillary will win, but if they hold the senate she's a lame duck. No supreme court appointments. No new laws passed.

I don't think they can continue to stonewall the SCOTUS appointment for 4 (or 8) more years. That would be unprecedented. If both houses retain a GOP majority, she would be forced to appoint a moderate, but someone will be appointed.
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03-08-2016, 08:53 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-08-2016 08:41 AM)Grasshopper Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 08:26 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Got an email from our local republican comitee. Looks like the game plan is for down ticket republicans to distance themselves from Trump. Hold the house and senate until 2020. Hillary will win, but if they hold the senate she's a lame duck. No supreme court appointments. No new laws passed.

I don't think they can continue to stonewall the SCOTUS appointment for 4 (or 8) more years. That would be unprecedented. If both houses retain a GOP majority, she would be forced to appoint a moderate, but someone will be appointed.

It would be unprecedented, however in today's political climate, a necessity. The country is so divided that any republican that votes to approve a democrat appointee will face multiple challengers during the next cycle. If you look at the recent trends in the house and senate, its career suicide to cross the aisle. It used to be career suicide to block appointments, now its required.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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03-08-2016, 09:43 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
It's not going to happen. Whomever wins the election will get to replace Scalia. The republicans aren't going to be able to continue to stonewall this. Polls already show the public wasn't happy with them blocking Obama's choice.

They are going to rue the day they played this game. Garland is a right of center moderate. Clinton is going to put up someone is likely well left of him and they are not going to be able to stop it.

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03-08-2016, 09:53 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-08-2016 09:43 AM)BnW Wrote:  It's not going to happen. Whomever wins the election will get to replace Scalia. The republicans aren't going to be able to continue to stonewall this. Polls already show the public wasn't happy with them blocking Obama's choice.

They are going to rue the day they played this game. Garland is a right of center moderate. Clinton is going to put up someone is likely well left of him and they are not going to be able to do it.

Don't think about it the old way. There will be no appointments if the republicans hold the senate. Nobody thought they'd stonewall Obama this long. My senator has assured me no democrat appointments are getting through unless the dems have the majority.

Hillary will win so they'll probably get a senate majority anyway.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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03-08-2016, 09:55 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
So your senator told you they are going to shut down the government for 4 years and do nothing?

And, let me guess: you're ok with that strategy.

Shackle their minds when they're bent on the cross
When ignorance reigns, life is lost
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03-08-2016, 09:56 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
(03-08-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 09:43 AM)BnW Wrote:  It's not going to happen. Whomever wins the election will get to replace Scalia. The republicans aren't going to be able to continue to stonewall this. Polls already show the public wasn't happy with them blocking Obama's choice.

They are going to rue the day they played this game. Garland is a right of center moderate. Clinton is going to put up someone is likely well left of him and they are not going to be able to do it.

Don't think about it the old way. There will be no appointments if the republicans hold the senate. Nobody thought they'd stonewall Obama this long. My senator has assured me no democrat appointments are getting through unless the dems have the majority.

Hillary will win so they'll probably get a senate majority anyway.

A 4-4 split has not been good for Republican priorities.

#sigh
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03-08-2016, 10:00 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
A
(03-08-2016 09:53 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 09:43 AM)BnW Wrote:  It's not going to happen. Whomever wins the election will get to replace Scalia. The republicans aren't going to be able to continue to stonewall this. Polls already show the public wasn't happy with them blocking Obama's choice.

They are going to rue the day they played this game. Garland is a right of center moderate. Clinton is going to put up someone is likely well left of him and they are not going to be able to do it.

Don't think about it the old way. There will be no appointments if the republicans hold the senate. Nobody thought they'd stonewall Obama this long. My senator has assured me no democrat appointments are getting through unless the dems have the majority.

Hillary will win so they'll probably get a senate majority anyway.

I don't think that they're going to keep the senate. I'm not even sure that they'll be able to hold on to offices in Bumfuck, Alabama.

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03-08-2016, 10:04 AM
RE: Worrying About a Trump Victory? Don't.
The GOP has become obstructionist and not willing to find common ground is no way to govern. It is an untenable position and will most likely continue to hurt them. If Clinton becomes president they will have been out of the White House for twelve years and sixteen is not out of the question.

Demographics are against them and as long as they continue to wallow in the angry, white male trench they have dug for themselves they will become an afterthought. I can foresee a third party being born out of all of this that resembles what the GOP I grew up with was like, because whatever this thing is now it is unrecognizable as such.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
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