You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
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24-07-2017, 01:41 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 01:13 PM)Gawdzilla Wrote:  
(24-07-2017 11:24 AM)BnW Wrote:  I've read this entire and I'm honestly not following the point. Is the argument that you're not more likely to get shot having a gun in your house? Because that's clearly ridiculous. Or, is it that your life is in no more danger? That is not born out by facts. Domestic violence stats alone disprove that.

I also don't get why suicide numbers don't count. Suicide is much more likely to be successful with a gun than most other means.

Finally, insurance companies don't bend to narratives. Rates are based on actuarial data. If insurance companies are charging more because you have a gun in your house, it's because they have data that supports that. That insurance companies charge that way is, to me, fairly conclusive evidence the OP premise is wrong.

You want a gun, have a fucking gun. But, the facts about the risk of having one don't change because you don't like them.
You have to keep in mind that some Opening Posts are inspired by John Barleycorn.

And a fair number of replies are simply insults slung by frustrated, impotent baldheaded bastards who are in desperate need of enema..

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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24-07-2017, 01:43 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 01:12 PM)Popeyes Pappy Wrote:  US police routinely ignore property crimes. You might be able to get a patrolman out to file an initial report, but getting a detective to investigate a property crime probably isn't going to happen much of the time.
I have no doubt that this is the case. It is the same in the UK. However, I made no mention of the type of crime nor did I indicate that the homeowner must have been the victim of a crime. That was one of OLB's legion of straw men.

“I am not responsible for actions of the imaginary version of me you have inside your head.” - John Scalzi

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24-07-2017, 02:23 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(23-07-2017 10:46 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  
(23-07-2017 09:44 AM)Gawdzilla Wrote:  I'm talking safety of the residents, not how much the toy locker costs to keep at home.

Perhaps I haven't made it clear.

Insurance companies feel the can charge more for homeowners and medical insurance just because you have a firearm in your home ( regardless of kept condition).

Why do they feel they can charge more?

Because enough people believe the nonsense that anti- gun hucksters have been spouting for years.

Like the mere presence of a gun in a home makes you more likely to get shot. ( and by default, killed)

Insurance companies are the best managers of risk in the world. Their actuarial tables are backed by the law of large numbers, and the fact that they remain viable economic entities is dramatic proof of this corollary. You might argue, for example, that having a low credit score doesn't make you a worse driver, and in your individual case that might be true. For the larger class as a whole, the data clearly show more and also more expensive claims are strongly correlated to credit, and so insurance companies use that as one criteria to establish a rating and overall cost of insurance.

Knowing how insurance companies work as well as I do, I'm quite confident that you are wrong and they are right about the correlational relationship between gun ownership and increased likelihood of claims, and that they have the hard data to support that policy.
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24-07-2017, 02:27 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 01:41 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  ... And a fair number of replies are simply insults slung by frustrated, impotent baldheaded bastards who are in desperate need of enema ...

Hurled without any irony I see Laugh out load
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24-07-2017, 02:28 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 11:24 AM)BnW Wrote:  I've read this entire and I'm honestly not following the point. Is the argument that you're not more likely to get shot having a gun in your house? Because that's clearly ridiculous. Or, is it that your life is in no more danger? That is not born out by facts. Domestic violence stats alone disprove that.
I think Online Biker's claim is that if someone is going to get killed, they will get killed anyway, if not a gun it will be via some other means.
He's under the assumption that the intent is to kill rather than an outlet of anger (jealousy, passion, anger management issues), or just an attempt to not get caught (a criminal).
And yes the facts do clearly dispute OLB's claim.



(24-07-2017 01:36 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  The whole point is the fallacy of not having a gun makes you safer.
It's not a fallacy, especially for women who own guns.

(24-07-2017 01:36 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  Having one or not having a gun changes your likelihood of being killed very little.
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/arc...er/284022/
"Another large case-control study compared women who were murdered by their intimate partner with a control group of battered women. Only 16 percent of the women who had been abused, but not murdered, had guns in their homes, whereas 51 percent of the murder victims did."

“More than twice as many women are killed with a gun used by their husbands or intimate acquaintances than are murdered by strangers using guns, knives, or any other means.”

https://everytownresearch.org/reports/gu...nst-women/
"people with a history of committing domestic violence are five times more likely to subsequently murder an intimate partner when a firearm is in the house"


(24-07-2017 01:36 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  The method will just be different.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and...icide.html
"The most recent study examining the relationship between firearms and homicide rates on a state level, published last April, found a significant positive relationship between gun ownership and overall homicide levels. Using data from 1981–2010 and the best firearm ownership proxy to date, the study found that for every 1 percent increase in gun ownership, there was a 1.1 percent increase in the firearm homicide rate and a 0.7 percent increase in the total homicide rate."

(24-07-2017 01:36 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  If you live in a shithole, that has high crime - getting or not getting a gun probably won't make much difference for most people ,- as they have no proficiency with firearms.
I think this is onlinebiker's get out of jail free card.
Because he probably considers himself highly proficient with a gun (and perhaps he is, who knows?) he thinks the statistics don't apply to him. So on the one hand he is asking for statistical evidence regarding whether a person is safer with or without a gun and on the other hand he is implying (I think) that the statistics don't apply to him.

(24-07-2017 01:36 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  As far as suicide.... Nobody "cries for help" by sticking a gun in their mouth and lighting one off.... People who commit suicide by firearm are fucking serious about it... Just get out of the way, or you'll get brains on your shoes.... It's better than having them step off a high building and landing on some hapless schmuck who didn't plan on checking out today.
I'm on the fence regarding guns and suicide. My main concern regarding guns is the danger to victims and the threat of the guns being used for a crime against me and my loved ones, so I think these are two different items and do deserve separate statistics.
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24-07-2017, 02:34 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 02:28 PM)Stevil Wrote:  ... he is implying (I think) that the statistics don't apply to him...

This constitutes more than 90% of what I've seen from the pro-gun stance.

And elsewhere, everywhere. Tongue
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24-07-2017, 02:40 PM (This post was last modified: 24-07-2017 02:44 PM by epronovost.)
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 01:36 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  The whole point is the fallacy of not having a gun makes you safer.

Having one or not having a gun changes your likelihood of being killed very little.

......

The method will just be different.

If you live in a shithole, that has high crime - getting or not getting a gun probably won't make much difference for most people ,- as they have no proficiency with firearms.

Best bet - move to where people aren't busy killing each other.

...,.

As far as suicide.... Nobody "cries for help" by sticking a gun in their mouth and lighting one off.... People who commit suicide by firearm are fucking serious about it... Just get out of the way, or you'll get brains on your shoes.... It's better than having them step off a high building and landing on some hapless schmuck who didn't plan on checking out today.

Leaving what seems to be hefty dose of prejudices on suicide on the side, do you happen to have any proofs, studies or data to back your claim that without guns people in violent neighborhood would successfully murder each other at the same rate? That claim appears to me to be rather ridiculous. Guns are much more easy to operate, quick to use and much more deadly than any other weapon available to citizens.

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24-07-2017, 03:55 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 12:47 PM)Norm Deplume Wrote:  
(24-07-2017 08:07 AM)Popeyes Pappy Wrote:  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understood what your original post to mean that you would expect interactions with an armed police officer to be the exception to the rule that your chances of getting shot are higher when there is a gun in the home.

If so then no I don't believe interactions with armed police are an exception. The recent death of Justine Damond is one example of why I don't believe police are an an exception to the rule. This dumb fuck shooting himself in front of a class full of middle school students is another.

Perhaps I did not make myself clear. Aliza wrote "I can't imagine any other scenario in which a gun would enter my home, so any time a gun comes in, it was against my wishes and my chances of getting shot skyrocket."

What I was proposing was a possible scenario where someone other than a burglar might enter with a gun.

If a cop enters my home, my chances of getting shot still go up. Not because I do anything illegal, but because I don't trust cops to have competent training. For all I know, the bird might holler out, "I'm going to kill that motherfucking pig," because he heard it on TV, and the cop draws his weapon.
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24-07-2017, 05:11 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 01:36 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  Having one or not having a gun changes your likelihood of being killed very little.

......

The method will just be different.

I'm fairly certain that isn't true, though. There are numerous studies and statistics that contradict your statement. For example, This 2014 study from the Violence Policy Center cites an earlier 2003 study that shows women who are victims of domestic violence are 3X more likely to be murdered if there is a gun in the house. I've seen other articles that put that number at 5X higher. Unless you are arguing that people who don't have guns in the house are less inclined to actually want to kill people (and, if you are arguing that I'd a) like to see some scientific study to validate that and b) that argument is yet another argument for why gun sales should be restricted - people who buy them want to kill people) then your argument is demonstrably false.

As for your comment about suicide, if you're implying that people who don't shoot themselves are just "crying for help", I'm pretty sure you're wrong. People who try to kill themselves are generally trying to kill themselves. The problem is it's a permanent solution to a temporary problem or feeling. But, using a gun makes it dramatically more likely you will be successful. For an idea of how the statistics look in terms of methods and difference in the sexes, this source provides some details.

But, the point is - your contention that just as many people would die without guns as with is demonstrably false. There are far too many studies that disprove it. A few other people here have pointed out other details that I've not yet seen you respond to.

Which takes me back to: you want to have a gun, go have a fucking gun. But, ignoring facts to back up your feelings on the topic does not serve you well.

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24-07-2017, 05:35 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 02:27 PM)Airportkid Wrote:  
(24-07-2017 01:41 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  ... And a fair number of replies are simply insults slung by frustrated, impotent baldheaded bastards who are in desperate need of enema ...

Hurled without any irony I see Laugh out load

He doesn't own a mirror. Thumbsup
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