You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
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24-07-2017, 08:24 PM (This post was last modified: 24-07-2017 08:35 PM by epronovost.)
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 07:45 PM)SYZ Wrote:  
(24-07-2017 05:36 PM)Gawdzilla Wrote:  As of June 30 there were 66 people killed in the USA. That's out of 330,000,000+ people.

We need a citation for this claim. According to This Guardian site there have been 1,093 deaths by cop to date in the US.

Some of these include crimes committed by cops while off-duty (mostly murdered girlfriends, over half the unarmed women in this list were killed by their boyfriends who so happen to be police or sheriffs). Others in accident during a police intervention. A 73 years old women was shot during a simulation of arrest in a police academy. She was suppose to play the victim and the gun was thought to be loaded with blank rounds. I would only count those who were killed wllingly by police officers while on duty. Many of those might also be very justified and used as a last resort.

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24-07-2017, 08:27 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 07:10 PM)Gawdzilla Wrote:  
(24-07-2017 05:55 PM)Popeyes Pappy Wrote:  By the police? For the year?

According to the Washington Post US police have shot and killed 559 people to date in 2017.
Yeah, I dropped a "6" from the Reverends numbers. Seems he was ahead of the Washington Post. Never thought he'd be truthful with his numbers. Anywho, that reduces the 1/110,000,000 to .7/110,000,000. Anybody know how that compares to other causes of death?

Damn, almost an 'I was wrong'.

So close, yet so far.

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24-07-2017, 08:53 PM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 07:37 PM)SYZ Wrote:  You obviously chose to ignore my PubMed link to this site: Gun ownership and firearm-related deaths. which negates your claims with empirical evidence to the contrary. More to the point, is there any reason you haven't responded to this evidence about an increase in shooting deaths with relation to gun ownership? Or is it that you can't defend the indefensible, or maybe you think that the AMJM paper I cited is erroneous in its methodology or conclusions?

The old saying goes there are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

If you are interested I'd be happy to link a study that shows in any given year more than 50% of US counties have zero murders. More than 70% have no more than one. The 50 worse counties have 15% of the population and account for nearly 40% of the murders.

The relevant fact here is that the gun ownership rate in the 70% of counties where there are few or zero murders is more than double that of the large urban areas with high murder rates.

Edited to add: According to the study...

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25-07-2017, 03:44 AM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
Why is that the relevant fact, though?

The OP premise is that you're at no more risk with a gun in your house than without one. But, the evidence is that's not true. You are much more likely to be shot if there is a gun in your house. The evidence for that is overwhelming and the concentration of where murders occur is not relevant to that fact.

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25-07-2017, 04:22 AM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(25-07-2017 03:44 AM)BnW Wrote:  Why is that the relevant fact, though?

The OP premise is that you're at no more risk with a gun in your house than without one. But, the evidence is that's not true. You are much more likely to be shot if there is a gun in your house. The evidence for that is overwhelming and the concentration of where murders occur is not relevant to that fact.
The premise isn't refuting that you are more likely to be shot, it is refuting that you are more likely to be murdered.

The assumption is that you will be murdered via a different method if a gun isn't available. So having no guns doesn't make it less likely for you from being murdered, 'cause it is assumed you will be murdered anyway, 'cause it is assumed that the intent is murder and the murder will resort to whatever means is at their disposal.

It's bullshit of course, if you look at the murder rate of wife's and girlfriends. They are more likely to be killed more so by their partners than by others (neighbors etc). And the stats say that they are much more likely to be killed/murdered if a gun is kept in the house.

But there is a concern, that perhaps in the rougher neighborhoods people are more likely to have a gun in their house and perhaps in a rougher neighborhood a woman is more likely to have an abusive/aggressive partner?? So the correlation might not be cause vs effect e.g gun vs murder, both gun and murder might be caused by being in the rougher neighborhood.
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25-07-2017, 05:42 AM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(25-07-2017 03:44 AM)BnW Wrote:  Why is that the relevant fact, though?

The OP premise is that you're at no more risk with a gun in your house than without one. But, the evidence is that's not true. You are much more likely to be shot if there is a gun in your house. The evidence for that is overwhelming and the concentration of where murders occur is not relevant to that fact.

I was not addressing the OP. I don't doubt the claim that people with guns in their home are at higher risk of being shot than people without guns in their home. The pissed off husband can't shoot his wife if he doesn't have a gun. I was responding to what SZY said about "an increase in shooting deaths with relation to gun ownership."

I was trying to make two points. One is that there is evidence that in the US areas with high gun ownership have lower murder rates (about 70% of homicides, which includes murders, involve guns) than areas with lower gun ownership rates. That is relevant to what SYZ said. The other point was to be careful with statistics. They can be and often are manipulated by both sides in any debate.

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25-07-2017, 05:54 AM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(24-07-2017 08:27 PM)Anjele Wrote:  
(24-07-2017 07:10 PM)Gawdzilla Wrote:  Yeah, I dropped a "6" from the Reverends numbers. Seems he was ahead of the Washington Post. Never thought he'd be truthful with his numbers. Anywho, that reduces the 1/110,000,000 to .7/110,000,000. Anybody know how that compares to other causes of death?

Damn, almost an 'I was wrong'.

So close, yet so far.

Attack the person, as usual.
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25-07-2017, 05:56 AM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(25-07-2017 05:42 AM)Popeyes Pappy Wrote:  I was trying to make two points. One is that there is evidence that in the US areas with high gun ownership have lower murder rates (about 70% of homicides, which includes murders, involve guns) than areas with lower gun ownership rates. That is relevant to what SYZ said. The other point was to be careful with statistics. They can be and often are manipulated by both sides in any debate.
What about accidental deaths by firearm?

And yeah, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
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25-07-2017, 06:11 AM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(25-07-2017 05:56 AM)Gawdzilla Wrote:  
(25-07-2017 05:42 AM)Popeyes Pappy Wrote:  I was trying to make two points. One is that there is evidence that in the US areas with high gun ownership have lower murder rates (about 70% of homicides, which includes murders, involve guns) than areas with lower gun ownership rates. That is relevant to what SYZ said. The other point was to be careful with statistics. They can be and often are manipulated by both sides in any debate.
What about accidental deaths by firearm?

And yeah, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I wouldn't expect there to be a significant difference between urban and rural areas in the rate of firearms related accidental deaths in gun owning households. I could be wrong about that though. Is that enough to tip the scale to higher overall gun related death rates in rural areas? Possibly? Probably? I don't know.

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25-07-2017, 06:18 AM
RE: You Are More Likely To Be Shot If There Is A Gun in The Home
(25-07-2017 06:11 AM)Popeyes Pappy Wrote:  
(25-07-2017 05:56 AM)Gawdzilla Wrote:  What about accidental deaths by firearm?

And yeah, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I wouldn't expect there to be a significant difference between urban and rural areas in the rate of firearms related accidental deaths in gun owning households. I could be wrong about that though. Is that enough to tip the scale to higher overall gun related death rates in rural areas? Possibly? Probably? I don't know.
Not seen reliable numbers, the NRA is allergic to the collection of those figures. The Washington Post, again, has information on this.

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