political litmus tests
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13-06-2018, 10:59 AM
political litmus tests
Incumbent Mark Sanford loses primary contest to Pro-Trump Katie Arrington

It was a relatively close race, and Trump weight in late, giving support to Arrington. Sanford has been critical of Trump in the past, and that appears to be the sin he needs to pay for. And it's not like he's some moderate in the Tuesday Caucus, or something. He's a vocal conservative in the Freedom Caucus. In the past, he was noteworthy for being more conservative than many other people he worked with.

But, he made the mistake of not backing Trump 100%, and that seems to be what Republicans in the House and Senate fear: Trump's base. If a Representative in the Freedom Caucus can draw Trump's ire, what's that say to all the moderates? This leaves me with two questions:
  • Will this create any push-back from other members of the GOP to assert themselves? I'm guessing not much, given how spineless most of them are, and that most opposition comes from those not running again in November.
  • Will this result in many "extreme Trump" candidate being run against (presumably) more reasonable-sounding Democrats? Will Trump's demand for loyalty help push that blue wave that was dwindling about a week ago?
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13-06-2018, 11:09 AM
RE: political litmus tests
(13-06-2018 10:59 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  Will this create any push-back from other members of the GOP to assert themselves? I'm guessing not much, given how spineless most of them are, and that most opposition comes from those not running again in November.

Will this result in many "extreme Trump" candidate being run against (presumably) more reasonable-sounding Democrats? Will Trump's demand for loyalty help push that blue wave that was dwindling about a week ago?

My opinions:

The GOP will remain spineless unless the Mueller investigation actually uncovers some major ammunition in its findings against Trump.

The Trump party purges will ultimately lessen the appeal of the GOP candidates except for that minority who still support Trump. That means Democrats will ultimately benefit. The real question is how much and how soon, since the fever hasn't broken yet. I would guess Democrats will take back the House in 2018 and the White House in 2020. Even an uninspiring candidate like Joe Biden should be able to beat Trump, as long as he has a good veep pick, like Kirsten Gillibrand or Kamala Harris.
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13-06-2018, 11:59 AM
RE: political litmus tests
My gosh, we might poke the bear!





[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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13-06-2018, 12:06 PM
RE: political litmus tests
(13-06-2018 11:09 AM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  
(13-06-2018 10:59 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  Will this create any push-back from other members of the GOP to assert themselves? I'm guessing not much, given how spineless most of them are, and that most opposition comes from those not running again in November.

Will this result in many "extreme Trump" candidate being run against (presumably) more reasonable-sounding Democrats? Will Trump's demand for loyalty help push that blue wave that was dwindling about a week ago?

My opinions:

The GOP will remain spineless unless the Mueller investigation actually uncovers some major ammunition in its findings against Trump.

The Trump party purges will ultimately lessen the appeal of the GOP candidates except for that minority who still support Trump. That means Democrats will ultimately benefit. The real question is how much and how soon, since the fever hasn't broken yet. I would guess Democrats will take back the House in 2018 and the White House in 2020. Even an uninspiring candidate like Joe Biden should be able to beat Trump, as long as he has a good veep pick, like Kirsten Gillibrand or Kamala Harris.

I agree with your first paragraph. Unfortunately, the GOP and voters have become more puppet-aligned. I'm hoping democrats will take control of the House in 2018, but the Republican members will be even more rubber stampy.

Democrats need a strong, younger candidate in 2020. Biden: no. Someone who is clearly more virile than puppet. Gillebrand and Harris would both qualify.

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13-06-2018, 01:15 PM
RE: political litmus tests
(13-06-2018 11:09 AM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  The Trump party purges will ultimately lessen the appeal of the GOP candidates except for that minority who still support Trump. That means Democrats will ultimately benefit.


We can only hope.

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13-06-2018, 04:33 PM
RE: political litmus tests
(13-06-2018 12:06 PM)julep Wrote:  Democrats need a strong, younger candidate in 2020. Biden: no. Someone who is clearly more virile than puppet. Gillebrand and Harris would both qualify.

So Sanders then?
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13-06-2018, 07:44 PM
RE: political litmus tests
(13-06-2018 11:09 AM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  
(13-06-2018 10:59 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  Will this create any push-back from other members of the GOP to assert themselves? I'm guessing not much, given how spineless most of them are, and that most opposition comes from those not running again in November.

Will this result in many "extreme Trump" candidate being run against (presumably) more reasonable-sounding Democrats? Will Trump's demand for loyalty help push that blue wave that was dwindling about a week ago?

My opinions:

The GOP will remain spineless unless the Mueller investigation actually uncovers some major ammunition in its findings against Trump.

The Trump party purges will ultimately lessen the appeal of the GOP candidates except for that minority who still support Trump. That means Democrats will ultimately benefit. The real question is how much and how soon, since the fever hasn't broken yet. I would guess Democrats will take back the House in 2018 and the White House in 2020. Even an uninspiring candidate like Joe Biden should be able to beat Trump, as long as he has a good veep pick, like Kirsten Gillibrand or Kamala Harris.

I think all of those names are bad choices. Biden is a good politician, but he's OLD, and has no appeal to young progressives. The democrats have the burden of getting young voters to show up, plus swinging independents that right now are a little right leaning back to the left again. That will be tough to do both. Independents won't want to go hard core progressive like Sanders, or Gillibrand/Harris. And the younger voters won't get motivated for a centrist democrat that the independent voters will find easy to vote for. Obama was that perfect candidate that got a lot of people excited. He had radical ideas but didn't really tackle them politically. A lot of voters that went for Obama in Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin went for Trump. The challenge for Democrats going forward will be to find someone like Obama that excites the young progressives and doesn't scare away the moderates. Things like single payer healthcare, higher taxes, repealing the Trump tax cuts etc will not swing the independents their way. They need a careful balance, and maybe a little help from Mueller.

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13-06-2018, 08:17 PM (This post was last modified: 13-06-2018 08:22 PM by Thoreauvian.)
RE: political litmus tests
(13-06-2018 07:44 PM)Grim Wrote:  
(13-06-2018 11:09 AM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  Even an uninspiring candidate like Joe Biden should be able to beat Trump, as long as he has a good veep pick, like Kirsten Gillibrand or Kamala Harris.

I think all of those names are bad choices. Biden is a good politician, but he's OLD, and has no appeal to young progressives. The democrats have the burden of getting young voters to show up, plus swinging independents that right now are a little right leaning back to the left again. That will be tough to do both. Independents won't want to go hard core progressive like Sanders, or Gillibrand/Harris. And the younger voters won't get motivated for a centrist democrat that the independent voters will find easy to vote for. Obama was that perfect candidate that got a lot of people excited. He had radical ideas but didn't really tackle them politically. A lot of voters that went for Obama in Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin went for Trump. The challenge for Democrats going forward will be to find someone like Obama that excites the young progressives and doesn't scare away the moderates. Things like single payer healthcare, higher taxes, repealing the Trump tax cuts etc will not swing the independents their way. They need a careful balance, and maybe a little help from Mueller.

Well, that's why I paired Biden with a progressive. I don't think you will find one person who will appeal to everyone. Plus I said this was to beat Trump, not to find an ideal candidate. To beat Trump, Democrats will likely vote for almost anyone else. Independents are another problem, but are too difficult to estimate easily.

We Democrats must stop comparing our possibilities to Obama, who was a very unusual, not-soon-to-be-repeated candidate.
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17-06-2018, 07:06 AM (This post was last modified: 17-06-2018 07:10 AM by Grim.)
RE: political litmus tests
It definitely won't be Sanders that gets the democrat nomination. The DNC added a rule last week that “At the time a presidential candidate announces their candidacy publicly, they must publicly affirm that they are a Democrat.”

If Sanders wants the democrat nomination for president, he'll have to announce in writing that he is a member of the democrat party and make it official. They will no longer allow independents to run. I don't believe Bernie would give up his independent status.

Hopefully this doesn't piss him off and cause him to run separately from the democrat ticket. That would split the vote and give Trump a huge victory.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/0...ers-634998

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